NBA 11/12

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Indiana Pacers (IND -2, 213) 7 PM

The Thunder have scored at least 112 (112.4 ppg) in 4 of their last 5 with the one being against the Magic for 102. They and have allowed at least 104 (109.6 ppg) in that same span and once again, the one being against the Magic for 94. 112+104 gets us over 213. What about the Pacer’s side? The Pacers have scored at least 108 (114 ppg) in 5 straight, and have allowed at least 109 ppg in their last 4 games. Not to mention, the over has hit in the last 4 Pacers games. Let’s try this again.

Bet: Over 213
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Thunder 85 Pacers 111

Atlanta Hawks @ Denver Nuggets (DEN -10, 210) 9 PM

The Nuggets have held their opponents to 100.3 ppg which ranks 4th in the league, and have held their last 4 opponents to 98 points or less (92.8 ppg). Meanwhile, the offense ranks 27th with 103.3 ppg in large part because they rank 26th in possessions per game. Both teams rank in the bottom half in effective field goal percentage with the Hawks ranked 22nd and the Nuggets ranks 28th. This will be a slow paced, tough it out kind of game.

Bet: Under 210
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Hawks 125 Nuggets 121

Portland Trailblazers @ Sacramento Kings (POR -1.5, 222) 10:10 PM

The Kings have won 3 of their last 4 after starting 0-5 and come home to play the Trailblazers who ended their 4 game losing streak by beating the Hawks in OT on Sunday. I kind of like the Kings to win this game, but I think there is more value on the over in this game. The Trailblazers have scored 115 or more in 4 of their last 5 (117.2 ppg). The Kings scored 98.6 ppg during their 5 game losing streak to begin the season, but have since figured something out, scoring 114 ppg in their last 4 games, all against top half of the leagues defenses (ranked 1st, 10th, 13th and 15th). The Trailblazers give up 114.6 ppg which ranks 23rd. Add in the fact the spread is close and overtime is a possibility, the over seems like a nice play.

Bet: Over 222
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Trailblazers 99 Kings 107

Today’s Record: 0-3
All-Time Record: 10-9