College Football 11/16

Alabama @ Mississippi State (ALA -18, 59.5) 12 PM

Saban will have his guys ready coming off the loss last week to LSU. Mississippi State is no LSU. The Bulldogs had lost 4 in a row before beating Arkansas last week, including a 33 point loss to Auburn, a 23 points loss to LSU and a 19 point loss to Texas A&M. Alabama has beaten every opponent they have faced, except LSU, by at least 19 points, and an average margin of victory of 33.4 ppg. Final Score Prediction: Alabama 56 Mississippi State 23

Bet: ALA -18
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Alabama 38 Mississippi State 7

UMass @ Northwestern (NW -41, 58) 12 PM

UMass lost to Rutgers by 27. That’s where we are with this. They have allowed at least 56 points in four straight games, at least 45 in 9 of their 10 games, and at least 62 in 4 of their last 7 games. That all amounts to 53.1 ppg and now they play their toughest opponent this season. Lay the absurd amount of points and take the Wildcats. Final Score Prediction: UMass 7 Northwestern 56

Bet: NW -41
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: UMass 6 Northwestern 45

Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech (VT -6.5, 51) 3:30 PM

These are two teams going in different directions. The Yellow Jackets have lost 6 of their last 7 games, losing by an average margin of 12.3 ppg during that span. The Hokies have won 4 of their last 5 games, with one narrow loss in South Bend. They have won those games by an average margin of 11.3 ppg while scoring 35 ppg over that span. I’ll take the better and hotter team to cover the one possession spread. Final Score Prediction: Virginia Tech 31 Georgia Tech 17

Bet: VT -6.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Virginia Tech 45 Georgia Tech 0

Louisville @ NC State (LOU -3.5, 53) 7:30 PM

Out of 130 teams, here are the defensive ranks for these two teams:
Points Allowed per game: Louisville’s 38.4 (123rd) NC State 32.2 (92nd)
Yards Allowed per game: Louisville 471.9 (114th) NC State 417.5 (76th)
Passing Yards Allowed per game: Louisville 285.6 (117th) NC State 268.8 (104th)
Rushing Yards Allowed per game: Louisville 182.6 (86th) NC State 148.8 (45th)
NC State’s offense has struggled, scoring only 21 ppg which ranks 109th, while Louisville’s offense has scored 30.9 ppg which ranks 46th. I think both these teams outscore their yearly averages and give us the over. Final Score Prediction: Louisville 45 NC State 31

Bet: Over 53
Confidence: 4 Units
Result: Louisville 34 NC State 20

Arizona State @ Oregon State (ASU -1, 56.5) 7:30 PM

The Sun Devils have lost 3 of their last 4 after winning their 5 of their first 6 games. In those three losses, it was the first half that hurt them. They trailed 14-0 at Utah (21-3 final), 28-7 at UCLE (42-32 final) and 28-13 vs USC (31-26 final). If they can keep the Beavers from starting off fast, a team that scores an average 15 points in the first half this season which ranks 62nd, then I think the Sun Devils should be able to win this game. The Beavers are 1-4 at home this season. Final Score Prediction: Arizona State 34 Oregon State 27

Bet: ASU -1
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Arizona State 34 Oregon State 35

Today’s Record: 3-2
All-Time Record: 11-15 (42.3%)