Orlando Magic @ Toronto Raptors (TOR -3, 207) 7:40 PM
The Magic are coming over a 5 game homestand in which they won 4 games including 3 straight. Despite going 4-1, they were just 2-3 ATS. Now they have to travel to a different country with their 0-4 road record and take on the Raptors who are 5-0 SU at home and 4-1 ATS. Despite losing Lowry and Ibaka to injuries, the Raptors have managed to go 4-2 SU and ATS while only being a favorite in two games in which they blew out the Pelicans by 18 to cover a 2 points spread and on Monday when they destroyed the Hornets by 36 to cover that 8.5 point spread. Their defense is still only allowing 103 ppg without their two stars and I think that helps them to victory tonight.
Bet: TOR -3
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Magic 97 Raptors 113
Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks (DAL -13.5, 218) 7:40 PM
The Warriors snapped a 7 game losing streak by beating the Grizzlies last night. While the Warriors are playing back-to-back, they are 2-1 ATS with no days rest. The Mavericks are coming off a 7 point win against the Spurs on Monday night. 11 of their 13 games have been decided by 10 points or less. The Mavericks have been a favorite in all 7 home games they have played this season, and while they have a 4-3 SU record, they are only 2-5 ATS at home. The Warriors have been competitive lately, and while I don’t see them winning this game, I think they’ll do enough to keep it close.
Bet: GS +13.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Warriors 94 Mavericks 142
Houston Rockets @ Denver Nuggets (DEN -1, 222) 9:10 PM
The Rocket’s are known for their offense that scores 119.5 ppg which ranks 1st in the league. Despite being the highest scoring offense, the under has cashed in 8 of their last 10 games. Their defense has been nothing short of great during their current 8 game winning streak in which they have allowed 103.8 ppg which would rank 6th on the entire season. Denver’s defense is even better, only allowing 102.9 ppg which ranks 4th. 5 of their last 7 games have hit under the total. No, they have not faced a better offense than this, but against top 10 scoring offenses in the league, the Nuggets are allowing 101.8 ppg while the Rockets are scoring 107.3 ppg against top 10 defenses. I don’t think either team gets to 110 so I like the under.
Bet: Under 222
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Rockets 95 Nuggets 105
Boston Celtics @ Los Angeles Clippers (LAC -7, 218.5) 10:10 PM
The Celtics scored 140 points against the Wizards last Wednesday night but have since just scored 101 ppg over their last 3 games which have all hit under the total. The Clippers have only allowed 102 ppg over their last 6 games including keeping five of those teams under 101 points. The under has hit in 8 of their last 11 games. Although this will be the Clippers 3rd lowest total of the season, the previous 5 lowest totals have all hit the under.
Condition: Kawhi Leonard must be active to play this bet. He’s questionable as of this posting. Without Kawhi, the Clippers score 117.4 ppg, allow 112 ppg and the over/under is 3-2. With Kawhi, the Clippers score 110.2 ppg, allow 103.6 ppg and the over/under is 2-7.
Bet: Under 218.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Celtics 104 Clippers 107 OT
DRAFTKINGS PROP SPECIAL:
Draftkings has a promotion tonight to create a parlay of player props and if you get one wrong, you get your money back in form of a free bet. So let’s try it out. The first one is going to be Bradley Beal Over 29.5 points. We actually get this one at plus odds at +110. He has scored 30 or more points in 4 of his last 5 games and has averaged 40.7 ppg over his last 3. The total for this game is 237.5 which is the highest on the board and I like Beal to have a big night. The second one is Clint Capela over 12.5 rebounds. He has had 20 rebounds in 4 straight games and at least 13 in 6 straight since returning from his shoulder injury. He’s averaging 13.1 rpg this season but 18.2 over his last 6 games. He has at least 12 rebounds in 8 of the 9 games where he’s played at least 29 minutes which includes each of the last 6 games in which he has played an average of 35 mpg.
Bet: Beal Over 29.5 points/Capela Over 12.5 rebounds
Confidence: with the promotion, 5 Units
Result: Beal 33 points; Capela 21 rebounds
Today’s Record: 4-1
All-Time Record: 19-17 (52.8%)
Jonny the Macedonian 