NFL Wildcard 1/4

Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans (HOU -2.5, 43.5) 4:35 PM

The Bills lost 3 of their last 4 games, but have still solidified the 5 seed in this year’s playoffs. As a road underdog, the Bills were 4-0-2 ATS including 4 SU wins. The Under is 8-1 when the Bills are underdogs and 9-1 when they play outside of the AFC East. The Texans are just 2-6 ATS at home and 1-5-1 as a favorite. The Under is 5-2 when the Texans are favored. I like the Bills outright and to do it with a strong defensive showing. Final Score Prediction: Bills 20 Texans 16

Bet: Under 43.5
Confidence: 3 Units 
Result: Bills 19 Texans 22 OT

Bet: BUF +2.5
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Bills 19 Texans 22 OT

Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots (NE -4.5, 45) 8:15 PM

It’s probably a bad idea to bet against Brady, at home, in the playoffs, right? The Pats are 4-2 with a rest advantage this season, but just 3-7 ATS with equal rest (Both teams played last Sunday). They are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games. The defense allowed just 7.6 ppg in their first 8 games but played none of the playoff teams. In the last 8 games, they allowed 20.5 ppg and went 1-3-1 ATS against playoff teams. The Titans are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games. Since getting shutout in Denver in week 6, the Titans have scored 30.4 ppg, which ranks 2nd in the league in that span. The Over is 9-1 in those games. I won’t pull the trigger on betting against Brady, too scared, but I will take the over, as the Patriots offense has at least scored 22 points in 4 of their last 5 games. Final Score Prediction: Titans 24 Patriots 27

Bet: Over 45
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Titans 20 Patriots 13

Playoff Record: 1-2
All-Time Record: 20-29 (40.8%)