LA Lafayette vs Miami (OH) (LA-L -14, 55) 7:30 PM
The Redhawks won the MAC Championship with one of the best defenses, allowing only 22.3 ppg in conference play. They allowed 21 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games. Yet, 5 of their last 6 games have all been decided by 7 points or less. In their 5 losses, their average margin of defeat is 30.6 points per loss, which includes a 71 point loss to Ohio State. Their other 4 losses are by 14, 22, 22 and 24. This tells me they can beat weak teams, but struggle against tougher competition. As a double digit underdog, they are 1-3 ATS with their only cover being a 24 point loss as a 25 point underdog in their first game of the year at Iowa. The Ragin’ Cajuns opened their season covering a 19 point spread against Mississippi State losing 38-28. Since, they are 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS, with their only two SU losses coming against Appalachian State. Their average margin of victory in their 10 wins is 27.2 ppg. They covered 8 of their first 9 games, but are just 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games.
The Ragin’ Cajuns have a triple threat backfield, with Raymond Calais, Trey Ragas and Elijah Mitchell who all have over 100 carries. As a team they average 6.1 yards per rush, the best in the country. That will be a problem for the Redhawks, as they allowed the 81st most rush yards per game. If the Redhawks fall behind, that could smell trouble as they rank 116th in passes per game, 112th in pass yards per game, 100th in sack percentage, 119th in completion percentage and 103rd in interception percentage. True freshman quarterback Brett Gabbart has thrown 11 TD and 8 INTs on the season. The Ragin’ Cajuns pass defense ranks 19th in the league and 7th in redzone scoring percentage. Lafayette takes an early lead and never looks back. Final Score Prediction: LA Lafayette 38 Miami (OH) 17
Bet: LA-L -14
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: LA Lafayette 27 Miami (OH) 17
Bowls: 18-23
All-Time Record: 45-55 (45%)
Jonny the Macedonian 