Last weekend, we cashed in on some pretty big bets. UNC dominated offensively to get us some money. Clemson was a TD machine and Colin spilling over 3.5 helped us cash in on the lock of the year. And if you put anything on the best man icing the entire wedding party at +3000 then you have plenty to work with this week. Here are my Week 6 picks. Let’s get it.
Detroit Lions (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 1 PM
I don’t even think the Lions can blow a double digit lead against this defense that ranks 32nd in DVOA. Don’t be mistaken, this offense has been lights out this year, scoring nearly 25 points a game. Golladay fully healthy also helps. Being on the road and coming off a bye shouldn’t scare you away. The Lions are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games off a bye on the road.
Final Score Prediction: Lions 31 Jaguars 23
Bet: DET -3
Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) 1 PM
The only reason to back the Falcons here is that they don’t have Quinn coaching anymore. Still, Matt Ryan has not been good. In fact, the Falcons are just 1-13-1 ATS in their last 15 games in the month of October. Meanwhile, the Vikings haven’t been as bad as their 1-4 record seems. Their 4 losses are legit: GB, IND, TEN and SEA. Don’t look now, but Cousins has thrown for 760 yards, 6 TDs and 3 INTs in his last 3 games, and that was against average defenses. The Vikings are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games in October and 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games at home off a loss.
Final Score Prediction: Falcons 22 Vikings 35
Bet: MIN -3.5
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) 1 PM
If you think Ben Roethlisberger is even a hair better than Old Man Rivers, this should be one of the easiest bets you should make today. The Browns haven’t won at the Steel Curtain since 2003. The Colts got absolutely zero pressure in the first half last week that led to 20 first half points for the Browns. Despite being too late, the pressure was added in the second half, Baker took some shots, Odell took some shits, and the offense was held to just 3 points from that point on. Baker is NOT healthy and the Steelers pressure the QB 40% of the time. The Browns defense gets an offense that actually has playmakers and a competent decision maker this week. This one isn’t close.
Final Score Prediction: Browns 16 Steelers 34
PIT -3
Cincinnati Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts (-7.5) 1 PM
Baltimore Ravens (-10) @ Philadelphia Eagles 1 PM
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (-8.5) 4:05 PM
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers (-1.5) 1 PM
Washington Football Team @ New York Giants (-1.5) 1 PM
Ok, so here’s my recommendation with these 5 games; two teasers with two teams each. Pick 4 of the 5, mix and match, and have a good time.
1. IND -1.5 – I know I was just hard on the Colts, but their defense did play better in the second half and the Bengals aren’t any good. Colts are 11-0 SU and ATS off a loss facing a team with a losing record under Reich.
2. BAL -4 – Ravens are 16-0 SU in their last 16 regular season games against anybody but the Chiefs. The Eagles are not the Chiefs.
3. MIA -2.5 – Adam Gase still coaching? Frank Gore and Joe Flacco the offense?
4. CHI +7.5 – The Underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 games between these two teams. Teddy Bridgewater is 31-9 ATS as a starter though, so we’ll need the extra points to stay away from that trend.
5. WAS +7.5 – How can the Giants win by more than a TD against anyone? I don’t even care that they’re playing the Football Team.
Newly Wed Special – Green Bay Packers (-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4:25 PM
The Packers are 4-0 ATS this season, covering by more than 11 points a game. They are also 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite of less than a touchdown.
Final Score Prediction: Packers 10/10/20 = 40 Buccaneers 20
Happy Betting! Go Colts! $$$
Jonny the Macedonian 