If you’ve ever played golf, you know every course is different. Augusta is the Taj Mahal of golf courses and has a unique style that plays into a specific skill set. This is one of the reasons why a debutant has not won this tournament since 1979. Experience matters in knowing the course (Sorry Morikawa, Wolff, Scheffler).
There are two key factors to watch this weekend; Par 5s and bogey avoidance. The Par 5s on this course have a 36% birdie rate. If you can birdie these, you’re in the Top 3rd of the field, giving you a huge advantage. Even more important is the bogey avoidance. 7 holes on the course have a 25%+ bogey rate while another 4 have 20%+ bogey rates. There are 3 golfers who rate out in the top 5 in both categories. No surprise: Dustin Johnson, John Rahm and…former winner Patrick Reed.
Without further ado, let’s start a tradition unlike any other: Betting on the Masters!
Outright Winners
Dustin Johnson +850 – All the hype is on Rahm, and for valid reasons, but that puts DJ as an after thought. Here are his last 6 tournament finishes: 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 6th, 2nd. To be honest, +200 Top 5 seems like a value! Since the Covid restart, he has finished 1st or 2nd 7 out of 12 tournaments. He also has a good history here, logging 4 straight Top 10 finishes at Augusta. If you want a guy who will definitely be in it on Sunday, DJ is a sure fire bet.
John Rahm +1050 – I’m assuming he’ll be receiving the bulk of the bets going into Thursday, in large part because of his miracle hole in one on 16. I HATE betting the “obvious” guy, as it never seems to come to fruition. Not this time. Rahm is an animal, and it seems like he’s even having fun now? He’s loose and dangerous and has all the skills to get the green jacket. He’s finished 6th or better in 4 of his last 6 tournaments, and has back to back Top 10 finishes at Augusta.
Xander Shauffele +1600 – Talk about a guy who is due. He has finished in the Top 10 in 6 of the last 8 majors he’s played in, including finishing 2nd at the 2019 Masters. 10 of the last 15 winners here finished in the Top 10 the previous year. He ranks 5th in birdie average 3rd in strokes gained total. Price + Talent, this the best play on the board.
Brooks Koepka +1700 – I have been fading Brooks ever since his round 4 debacle at the PGA Championship. He was obviously not healthy and not playing his best game, two reasons I faded him, not to mention he seems like a douche. But in his two tournaments since his return to injury, he’s playing like himself again. Last Saturday and Sunday, he shot 5 under on both days to rise into the Top 5. Ok, so if this was anyone else, I probably wouldn’t touch him at this price based on recent form, but it’s death, taxes and Koepka in majors. He has 4 wins and 2 runner ups in his last 9 majors! He’s finished Top 5 in 7 of his last 9 majors, and 13th or better in 12 of his last 14 majors! He finished 2nd at the 2019 Masters, tied with Shauffele, so yeah, I’ll definitely have a ticket on Koepka even if I don’t like it.
Patrick Reed +3000- Par 5s? Check. Bogey Avoidance? Check. Experience at the Masters? Check. He ranks 17th in strokes gained putting and 11th in birdie average. He’s finished in the Top 15 in 5 of his last 7 tournaments and his experience here may just get him another green jacket.
Webb Simpson +4000 AND Tony Finau +3300 – Webb Simpson and Tony Finau are my favorite golfers, of course they both struggle to get over the hump at majors with the exception of Webb’s 2012 U.S. Open win. I’m not going to miss the bet when they finally do. Tony has finished in the Top 10 in 5 of his last 7 majors, and has finished 5th and 10th in each of his last 2 Masters. Webb has finished Top 20 in 7 of his last 10 majors and has finished in the Top 10 in 5 of his last 11 tournaments this year. He tied for 5th at the Masters last year and might just get it done this year.
Top 10
Jason Kokrak +550 – +550 is a great price on a guy who has finished 17th or better in 6 of his last 7 tournaments. He ranks 3rd in strokes gained putting and 6th in birdie average. He can still whack his driver too, ranking 34th in driving distance. If he cleans up his irons a bit, he could win this one outright, and even if he doesn’t, he’s still a great bet for a Top 10. 90/1 to win is a nice price on Kokrak as well.
Bubba Watson +300 – I almost put Bubba on my outright list, but he’s got to clean up his putts if he wants to win this tournament. While he ranks 230th in strokes gained putting, he ranks 8th off the tee, 9th approach to green, and 4th in tee to green. Don’t worry about what that all means, just know he ranks 13th in total strokes gained which is really good. He’s heating up at the right time, finishing in the Top 25 in 5 of his last 7 tournaments, finishing 7th and 4th in his last 2. He’s won this thing twice and has finished 12th and 5th in last 2 years.
Props
Top Debutant Scott Scheffler +550 – I said I wouldn’t take a debutant to win, but the best one in field is Scott Scheffler. He’s +400 to finish Top 10, which was my initial bet, but +550 to be the top debutant is a much better bet. The other two ahead of him are Morikawa, who has struggled recently and Matthew Wolff, who is the one I would worry about. But +550 on a toss up between those two is a good bet. But, Scheffler is 7th in birdie average while Wolff is 61st.
Top Lefty Bubba Watson -250 – I know this price is steep, but it’s not going to be close. Based on my projections, I have Bubba a Top 20 lock while the other 3 lefties, Mcikelson, Lin and Weir all missing the cut. If you’re worried about Phil, don’t be. He has 2 Top 40 finishes in his last 14 tournaments since the COVID restart while Bubba has finished in the Top 25 in 7 of his last 9.
Top Former Arizona State Player John Rahm -186 – The others are Paul Casey, Phil Mickelson and Chez Reavie. Casey has 3 Top 20’s in his last 12 tournaments while Rahm has finished in the Top 6 in 4 of his last 6. Example bets to hedge your Rahm winner:
Rahm to Win $50 to win $525. Rahm Top Arizona State $100 to win $54. If he wins, +$579, he loses, but beats Paul Casey +$4.
Lowest Score Under 64.5 -136 – Talent is ridiculous. Someone certainly will.
Winning Score Under 273.5 or -14.5 -134 See previous prop bet.
Hole in One in Tournament Yes -175 – previous props continued. Also see Rahm’s practice round. (**MGM odds boost from -182 to -110)
DFS *
If you’re playing DFS…
Top Tier:
D. Johnson $10,000
X. Shauffele $9,800
W. Simpson $9,300
B. Watson $9,000
Mid Tier:
J. Day $8,400
L. Oosthuizen $7,900
S. Scheffler $7,800
Value Plays:
K. Kisner $7,100
J. Kokrak $7,000
S. Munoz $6,700
*Finshed 108 out of 4.8K last weekend
Happy Betting and enjoy The Masters!
Jonny the Macedonian 