Happy Bowl Season! Below you will find my analysis for every single bowl game over the next few days.
I wanted to get you the early bowl games as the numbers are being crunched for the later games. Enjoy!
MONDAY, DEC 21
Appalachian St (-21) vs North Texas 2:30PM
The Mountaineers had a disappointing season, going 8-3 SU and just 2-9 ATS. Their 3 losses came against some good opponents who’s combined record is 27-3. Now they get a 4-5 North Texas team who gives up over 500 yards and 42.6 points per game! App State has some key advantages in this game. They rank 8th on 3rd down offense while North Texas ranks 111th on 3rd down defense. App State ranks 12th in rushing offense and North Texas ranks 124th in rushing defense.
The Mountaineers defense is no joke either. They allow 17.1 ppg in their 8 wins this season. While North Texas scores 32.4 ppg this season, their toughest defense faced according to defensive efficiency was Rice, who ranks 59th. They scored 27 points in that game. Now, they get App State who ranks 17th in DVOA. Oh, and their top playmaker, Jaelon Darden, is opting out of this game. He had 1,190 yards receiving and 12 TDs in 5 games this season. I like App State to score and I don’t like North Texas to score. I guess I’ll lay the 21?
Final Score Prediction: App State 45 North Texas 17
Bet: App St -21
Confidence: 3
TUESDAY, DEC 22
Tulane (-2.5) vs Nevada 3:30PM
The Green Wave is what you would be hitting if you have been betting on Tulane the last 7 weeks. They are 6-1 ATS over that span. They are also 5-0 SU and ATS in their last 5 as a favorite. However, I am not so sure they should be favored here. The Wolf Pack come in with the 11th ranked passing offense in the country while Tulane has the 115th ranked passing defense. Against Top 35 passing offenses this year, Tulane is 1-3 SU and are allowing 39.5 points per game.
Tulane’s 3rd down offense is cause for concern, as they rank 101st in that category. Meanwhile, Nevada gets teams off the field 65% of the time on that crucial down, which ranks 25th. Yet, Tulane has scored 30+ points in 8 of their last 9 games. Tulane’s ATS streak gives me hesitancy on taking the Wolf Pack, though I tend to lean that way. Instead, I’ll take the Over as I see both these teams getting into the 30’s.
Final Score Prediction: Tulane 34 Nevada 37
Bet: Over 56.5
Confidence: 5
Update: There may be some weather issues this evening. Mid to low 30s with 35-40 mph wind gusts. The Green Machine will also be missing 3of their defensive starters. I will be switching to NEV +2.5 in this game instead.
Bet: NEV +2.5
Confidence: 2
UCF vs BYU (-6.5) 7PM
Both these teams rank in the top 20 in the country in yards per game, pass yards per game and 3rd down offense. They are also both in the top 50 in rush yards per game. We know these offenses are electric, but what about the defenses? BYU comes in with the #5 defense in yards allowed per game, #3 in redzone defense, 15th in pass defense and 18th in rush defense. UCF’s defense, not so much. They rank 114th in yards per game, 100th in redzone defense, 117th in pass defense and 87th in rush defense.
UCF may have a slight advantage on offense, but the defense in a game with a total of 74.5 may be the difference. I’ll lay the points with the Cougars.
Final Score Prediction: UCF 31 BYU 41
Bet: BYU -6.5
Confidence: 1
WEDNESDAY, DEC 23
Louisiana Tech vs Georgia Southern (-5.5) 3PM
The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are NOT in the top 100 in either offensive efficiency (102) or defensive efficiency (114). That might be a problem tonight against a solid Georgia Southern team. The Bulldogs offense is terrible and face a tough matchup here. They rank 123rd in rushing, going up against the Eagles 15th ranked rush defense. They aren’t much better through the air, ranking 82nd.
Meanwhile, the Eagles bring the 7th ranked rushing offense (3rd in rush attempts per game) and will face the Bulldogs 93rd ranked rush defense. If the Eagles can jump out to a lead and get their ground game going, it will be hard for this Bulldogs offense to get anything going. The Eagles have scored 30 points or less in 7 of their last 8 games. I think the run games and defenses dominate this game, so I will grab the Under.
Final Score Prediction: Louisiana Tech 17 Georgia Southern 24
Bet: Under 48.5
Confidence: 1
Memphis (-8) vs FAU 7PM
This is an intriguing matchup between the Tiger’s 9th ranked passing offense against the Owl’s 14th ranked passing defense. If Brady White, the Tigers starting quarterback, can break through this defense, the Owls will have a tough time keeping up with the Tiger’s pace. FAU’s offense ranks 111th in yards per game and 117th in passing yards per game. They finished the season 1-4 ATS and lost their last two games of the season by double digits despite being favored in both games. I’ll lay the points with the better offense.
Final Score Prediction: Memphis 31 FAU 17
Bet: Memphis -8
Confidence: 2
THURSDAY, DEC 24
Hawaii @ Houston (-13) 3:30PM
This game will be played in Frisco, Texas, just outside of Dallas. I am not suggesting the Cougar faithful will make much of a difference in Covid World, because there’s no such thing as home field advantage, however, this game kicks off at 10:30 Hawaii time. Since October 30th, the Rainbow Warriors have only played outside of the state of Hawaii twice. They lost both games by 24, including a loss to Wyoming as a 2.5 point favorite.
Houston likes to play in blowout games with 6 of their 7 games being decided by 16 points or more. They are 3-3 SU in those games. They are 3-1 SU and ATS as a favorite this season. I think Houston’s offense is too much in this one, so I’ll take the Cougars.
Final Score Prediction: Hawaii 21 Houston 38
Bet: Houston -13
Confidence: 1
FRIDAY, DEC 25
Marshall vs Buffalo (-3.5) 2:30PM
These teams had disappointing results to end their seasons. Buffalo lost outright as a double digit favorite in the MAC Championship to Ball State, while Marshall dropped their final two games despite being heavy favorites. Both offenses struggled in those games. The Bulls averaged 51.8 ppg entering the MAC Championship and only put up 28. Meanwhile, Marshall scored 37.4 ppg in their first 7 games, and only 13 points combined over their final two games.
Nonetheless, this Marshall rush defense is the equivalent of Buffalo’s rush offense. They allow just 2.7 yards per carry and only 89.2 rush yards per game, both in the top 3 in the country. The Thundering Herd has not allowed more than 22 points in any of their 9 games this season.
I want to take the Under based on these statistics, but I’ll take Patterson’s 7.6 yards per carry, 1,000+ yards and 19 TDs in 5 games.
Final Score Prediction: Marshall 20 Buffalo 31
Bet: Buffalo -3.5
Confidence: 3
SATURDAY, DEC 26
Louisiana-Lafayette (-14) vs UTSA 3:30PM
The Ragin’ Cajuns lone loss came against Coastal Carolina by 3. Since that loss, they are 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS and have won by an average of 16 ppg. They should have no problem with UTSA who have yet to beat a team with a strength of record better than 100th (0-4). However, both these defenses have been playing very well lately. Ragin’ Cajuns have allowed 21 points or less in 6 of their last 8 and the Under is 6-2 in those games. Meanwhile, UTSA has allowed 23 ppg over their last 8 games and the Under is 7-1 in those games. With the Under cashing in 13 of the last 16 games combined for these two teams, I’ll ride that trend with a total in the high 50s.
Final Score Prediction: Louisiana-Lafayette 34 UTSA 17
Bet: Under 57.5
Confidence: 3
Western Kentucky vs Georgia State (-4) 3:30PM
Well this is a tough one because both teams teams have been showing out differently in their last few matchups. Georgia State’s defense allowed 40.2 ppg over their first 6 games, and have allowed just 18.3 ppg in their last 3 games. Western Kentucky has been one of the worst offenses in college football, ranking 121st in yards per game, and only scoring 14.7 ppg over their first 9 games. Yet, in their last 2 games, they have scored 37 and 38 points.
Georgia State has scored 30+ in 7 of their 9 games and the Over has cashed in 6 of those 9 games. I think the Hilltoppers do just enough to push this total over with the way their offense has been playing that last 2 weeks.
Final Score Prediction: Western Kentucky 24 Georgia State 30
Bet: Over 51.5
Confidence: 1
Liberty vs Coastal Carolina (-7) 7:30PM
Coastal Carolina has been getting a lot of hype lately, but I think people have forgotten about this Liberty team. They are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS this season with their only loss coming by 1 point at NC State. They are 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season and now get a Coastal Carolina team that had its sights much higher than the FBC Mortgage Cure Bowl despite going 8-0 and beating the team that the #10 team lost to at home by 17. Liberty scored 41 points per game in their 8 wins this season. Between an offense that keeps up, and a defense that ranks in the top 10 nationally in yards per game allowed, 3rd down defense and pass yards per game allowed, I think they can keep this game within a touchdown. I also like the Under in this game as both these defenses rank in the top 25.
Final Score Prediction: Liberty 26 Coastal Carolina 29
Bet: Liberty +7 & Under 59.5
Confidence: 2/1
TUESDAY, DEC 29
Oklahoma State vs Miami (-1) 5:30PM
These two teams finished their regular seasons in two completely different ways. The Cowboys blew out the Baylor Bears 42-3 on their way to a 7-3 season. It was the first time they had covered the spread in 6 games. The Hurricanes finished their season by allowing 62 to the Tar Heels in a 36 point loss at home in what was just their second loss of the season.
The Hurricanes just allowed 62 points and rank 82nd against the rush and 62nd against the pass, and that’s against some weak opponents. The Cowboys should be able to put up some points in this one. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are only allowing 22.4 points per game this season. However, against three opponents who rank inside the top 20 in offensive efficiency, they allow 34.3 ppg. Miami ranks 19th in that category. I like some back and forth in this game and I think it could get deep into the 30s or even higher, so I’ll take the Over.
Final Score Prediction: Oklahoma State 34 Miami 35
Bet: Over 61.5
Confidence: 1
Texas (-7.5) vs Colorado 9PM
I will fade the Big 12 here as they were just 1-5 SU in bowl games last season and 0-3 vs the Sun Belt this season. The Buffaloes have looked pretty good this year, going 4-1 SU and ATS with their lone loss coming against Utah in snowy conditions. This game will be played in a dome and this offense will be able to do what it wants. The Longhorns are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 as a favorite. They will be missing 5 team captains who have chosen to opt out of this game. I like the Buffaloes outright, but a free touchdown is not so bad either.
Final Score Prediction: Texas 31 Colorado 34
Bet: Colorado +7.5
Confidence: 2
WEDNESDAY, DEC 30
Wake Forest vs Wisconsin (-10) 12PM
The Demon Deacons have only played twice since Halloween and the rust showed. They allowed 45 and 59 in their last two games. Before that, and excluding Trevor Lawrence, they allowed 22.4 ppg in their previous 5 games. Wisconsin has allowed just 10 ppg in their last 4 games and is one of the best in the country. They are #1 in yards per game allowed, #1 in 3rd down defense, #3 against the run and #5 against the pass. They would have lived up to their top 10 preseason ranking if they had any offense. The under looks like the play in this one.
Final Score Prediction: Wake Forest 17 Wisconsin 30
Bet: Under 51.5
Confidence: 3
Florida vs Oklahoma (-6.5) 8PM
The Gators top 4 pass catchers have opted out of this game, a big reason why this line has shifted from Florida giving 3 to getting 6.5. I liked the Sooners defense before the opt outs and even more so now. They have allowed just 16.5 ppg in their last 6 games. You know who’s defense isn’t good? The Gators. They’ve allowed 33.8 ppg in their last 5 games against teams without female kickers (Vanderbilt’s terrible). I don’t understand why Trask is even playing in this game, and I doubt he even finishes this game. The Gators could care less, so why would anyone back them? I like the Sooners in a route.
Final Score Prediction: Florida 23 Oklahoma 47
Bet: Oklahoma -6.5
Confidence: 3
THURSDAY, DEC 31
Tulsa (-1.5) vs Mississippi State 12PM
A non-power 5 team is favored against an SEC team in a bowl game. Prime 2020 right here. That’s what you get when you have a 3 win team make a bowl game. Tulsa only has two losses on the season; a 9 point loss to Oklahoma State to begin their season, and a 3 point loss to Cincinnati to finish their season. They were 7-1 ATS on the season, one of the best ATS teams in all of college football. The Bulldogs had a much more disappointing season finishing 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS. They did, however, finish the season 3-1 ATS. When you think of the Bulldogs, think the opposite style of Army. They are #1 in the country is pass play percentage and dead last in rush play percentage.
Both these defenses have some strengths. Tulsa ranks 21st in yards per game allowed, 15th on 3rd down defense and 20th in red zone defense. Against a Mississippi State team that passes nearly every down, Tulsa ranks 20th in pass defense. While Mississippi State ranks 46th in yards per game, they rank 20th against the run. However, their schedule in the SEC has not helped them one bit. They’ve played 4 of the top 18 teams in offensive efficiency. Tulsa ranks 79th and should be a much easier offense to manage. I’ll side with the Under in hopes both these offenses struggle it out.
Final Score Prediction: Tulsa 23 Mississippi State 20
Bet: Under 46.5
Confidence: 1
Ball State vs San Jose State (-9.5) 2PM
The Cardinals have won 6 in a row and covered 4 straight, including 3 covers and straight up wins as an underdog. Will they be able to continue this streak against the Trojans. The Trojans are on quite a streak as well. They are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS on the season, winning every game by double digits. The Under is 4-1 in Ball State’s last 5 games, while the Under is 6-1 for the Trojans overall.
While Ball State has scored 30+ in 6 of their 7 games this season, they haven’t played a San Jose State type defense that has allowed 24 points or less in all 7 games this season. Ball State’s defense has bent for weeks now, allowing 24.8 ppg over the last 5 weeks, but again, San Jose State brings in the best passing offense they have seen all season which ranks 20th in the country. The Cardinal’s 118th ranked pass defense will struggle and the Trojans will win big.
Final Score Prediction: Ball State 24 San Jose State 41
Bet: San Jose State -9.5
Confidence: 2
West Virginia vs Army 4PM
Initially, West Virginia was set to play Tennessee while 9-2 Army wasn’t invited to any bowls. But the COVID Gods struck the Volunteers and now Army will get their chance. West Virginia lost 3 of their last 5 games, including being beat down by Iowa State 42-6 in their final game. They only played 3 games all season against teams with a winning record in which they went 1-3. They were 4-1 against teams with losing records. Army finished 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS.
Army runs the ball more than any other team in the country and rank 5th in rush yards per game. The Mountaineers defensive strength is their pass defense which ranks 8th, but their rush defense isn’t too bad either, ranking 32nd in rush yards allowed per game. West Virginia ranks 105th in rushing yards per game on offense, so look for them to throw it, as they rank 29th in passing yards per game. However, Army has the #1 pass defense in the country. Army ranks 2nd is yards allowed per game while the Mountaineers rank 6th. The Under is 6-2 when Army faces an FBS team while West Virginia allowed 21 or less in 6 of their 9 games with Under cashing 5 of their last 8 games overall. All signs point to a low scoring game, so that’s what I’ll go with here.
Final Score Prediction: West Virginia 19 Army 20
Bet: Under 41.5
Confidence: 1
FRIDAY, JAN 1
Georgia vs Cincinnati 12PM
The Bearcats have a lot to prove, as many teams that have been hosed by the system in the past can relate. Let’s go back and see how these teams have played. 2007, Boise State beats Oklahoma in one of the best college football game in history as a 7 point underdog. TCU dropped out of the playoffs in 2014 despite winning 55-3 in their final game. They went on to win 42-3 as a 3 point favorite in the Peach Bowl against SEC Ole Miss. Finally, UCF won the “Championship” in 2017 after an undefeated regular season and being left out of the playoff. They went on to win their bowl against SEC Auburn by 7 as a 9.5 underdog.
Cincinnati will be announced “National Champions” just before the actual playoff begins because they will beat Georgia. Georgia is 1-2 SU and ATS against teams with winning records. Their best win is against a depleted Auburn team and they lost to Alabama and Florida by a combined 35 points. The Bearcats are motivated and ready to prove they should have been included in the playoff, even though the committee will never put them in. Take the points and shove it where the committee don’t shine.
Final Score Prediction: Georgia 17 Cincinnati 41
Bet: Cincinnati +6.5…go ahead and sprinkle some money on the moneyline as well.
Confidence: 4
Auburn vs Northwestern 1PM
We saw what Northwestern did to a great Ohio State offense, and if they would have been able to stop the run, they may have a Big Ten Championship. Auburn only ranks 58th in rush offense and have only scored 19 ppg in their last 3 games. Aside from the matchup disadvantage, let’s look at the coaching matchup. Auburn’s head coach is still moving from Boise, while the coaches on the field prepare for what is likely their last game with the program. Pat Fitzgerald is on a throne in Chicago, and the only way he rents a Uhaul is if he gets shipped to the NFL with $$ in his eyes. Give me the Wildcats.
Final Score Prediction: Auburn 17 Northwestern 24
Bet: Northwestern -3.5
Confidence: 1
Notre Dame vs Alabama 4PM
Bama is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 as a 20+ point favorite, while Notre Dame couldn’t do anything against Clemson’s defense and couldn’t stop Trevor Lawrence. Now they get an offense that had 3 of the top 5 Heisman finalists. I always want to take the Irish in these games with the spread this high, but I won’t wake up the next morning with a losing Irish ticket. That’s just embarrassing. I’ll go with the best team in the country against the team that can never show up for this game.
Final Score Prediction: Notre Dame 20 Alabama 49
Bet: Alabama -20
Ohio State vs Clemson 8PM
As an Underdog, Ohio State is 8-1 SU in their last 9 games. Their one straight up loss was last season against Clemson, in which they looked like the better team. Ohio State has not looked their best this season, there’s no doubt. But, if this well rested, hungry to prove Buckeyes squad can put it together, they may actually get to be beaten down by Alabama after all. 9 of 12 semi final games have been decided by double digits. Of the 3 that have been decided by single digits, Ohio State was involved in 2 of those, including last season vs Clemson. I’ll take a few points and go with the Buckeyes. Ugh.
Final Score Prediction: Ohio State 31 Clemson 34
Bet: Ohio State +7.5
Confidence: 1
SATURDAY, JAN 2
North Carolina State vs Kentucky 12PM
The Wildcats lost 4 of their last 6 (which is better than their basketball team can say, but still not very good.) Their two wins were a 3 point win against an awful Vanderbilt team and a 23 point win against a just-as-bad South Carolina team. They have lost their last 4 games by an average of 26.3 ppg. They scored just 6.5 ppg in those 4 losses. The Wolfpack’s three losses came against some offensive power houses in which they allowed 45.7 ppg in those losses. In their 8 wins, they allowed 23.8 ppg. They have scored 30+ in 6 of their last 9 games and that should be plenty enough to win and cover against the Wildcats.
Final Score Prediction: North Carolina State 30 Kentucky 22
Bet: North Carolina State +2
Confidence: 3
Ole Miss vs Indiana 12:30PM
Fresno State and Indiana are the only teams undefeated ATS as the Hoosier have covered in all 7 games this season. The Rebels lost 4 of their first 5, but have won 3 of 4 to finish the season. Lane Kiffin’s offense has scored 48 ppg in those final 4 games. In fact, they scored 31 or more in 7 of their 9 games, including putting up 48 on the #1 team in the country. IU’s defense has been solid this year, however, their pass defense, which ranks 60th, now goes up against the toughest pass offense they will play all season, which ranks 7th. On the other side of the ball, the Rebel’s defense is absolutely terrible. They have allowed 33 or more points in 7 of their 9 games, allowing over 40 points 5 times, and they are allowing 40.3 ppg on the season which ranks 121st out of 127. IU’s receivers are good enough for a few long touchdowns while you know Kiffin will draw up some wild things to get his guys in the endzone. Expect lots of scoring in this one.
Final Score Prediction: Ole Miss 34 Indiana 41
Bet: Over 65
Confidence: 2
Oregon vs Iowa State 4PM
The Ducks lost to Cal less than a month ago by 4. Iowa State’s favored by 4. The Ducks are not a good team this year, and backing their way into the PAC12 title game and beating a not that good USC team got them here, but that’s it. Cristobal is an awful coach, just look what he did to Justin Herbert. I’m not big on the Cyclones this year, but they are by far better than any PAC12 dumpster fire.
Final Score Prediction: Oregon 24 Iowa State 37
Bet: Iowa State -4
Confidence: 2
Texas A&M vs North Carolina 8PM
When the bowl schedule came out, this was one that I circled right away. But then 2020 strikes again and half the UNC offense decided to opt out. The leading rusher for the Tar Heels in this game is quarterback Sam Howell with 121 yards. Texas A&M’s defense allowed just 3.3 yards per carry on the season and just 92.2 yards per game which ranks 2nd in the country. The Aggies pass defense ranks 55th, but will not have to go against the Tar Heels top pass catcher, Dyami Brown, who just had his second consecutive 1,000 yard season. This was going to be close with both teams at full strength, but I can’t back the Tar Heels with so many playmakers missing. Therefore, I like both Texas A&M and the Under in this game. The Under is 4-0 when the Tar Heels fail to reach 40 points. The Aggies defense has allowed 14.3 ppg to anyone not invited to the Heisman ceremony.
Final Score Prediction: Texas A&M 34 North Carolina 23
Bet: Texas A&M -7/Under 65.5
Confidence: 1/2
Bowl Record: 15-11-1 (+13 Units)
Jonny the Macedonian 