NBA 11/11

Memphis Grizzlies @ San Antonio Spurs (SA -11, 223.5) 7:40 PM

Memphis gives up 120.1 points per game, 4th worst in the league. In fact, they just gave up 118 points to the Magic. As mentioned before, the Spurs are 4-0 against bottom half defenses and score 121 ppg in those contests. They also average 121 points per game in wins this season, and as 11 point favorites, it is likely they do so again tonight. Defensively, before the Celtics put up 135 on Saturday, the Spurs were allowing 107.2 ppg over their last 5. The Grizzlies have scored 134 and 137 in their two wins this season, but average only 101 ppg in their 7 losses, and as 11 point underdogs, it is likely they do so again tonight. On the road, the Grizzlies are 0-3 and lose by an average margin of 26.7 including losses by 19, 29 and 32.

Bet: SA -11
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Grizzlies 113 Spurs 109

Houston Rockets @ New Orleans Pelicans (HOU -6, 245) 8:10 PM

This is one the highest totals of the season, and for good reason. Offensively, the Rockets score 120.1 ppg (1st) and the Pelicans score 117.1 ppg (4th). Defensively, the Rockets allow 118.7 ppg (26th) and the Pelicans allow 122.4 ppg (30th). However, the Rockets have allowed only 102 ppg over their last 3 games while the Pelicans have scored only 112 ppg over their last 4 games. Harden and the Rockets will get theirs, but I think the Rockets defense is improving and can keep this high total down.

Bet: HOU ML/Under 245 Parlay
Confidence: 2 units
Result: Rockets 122 Pelicans 116

Toronto Raptors @ Los Angeles Clippers (LAC -9.5, 222.5) 10:40 PM

The Raptors defense is one of the best in the league, ranking 10th giving up 107.7 ppg. They are even better on the road, allowing only 103.8 ppg which ranks 5th in the league. Although the Clippers offense ranks 10th with 113.4 ppg, they score 110.3 at home compared to 119.7 on the road. Over the past 5 games, the Clippers have averaged 107 ppg, and only eclipsing 107 once during that span in a 129-124 loss to Milwaukee. In fact, if we take that game away, the Clipper’s defense has allowed 99.6 ppg over their last 5 games. I think this game stays close and low scoring. Consider taking TOR +9.5, but Kawhi’s revenge game scares me just enough.

Bet: Under 222.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Raptors 88 Clippers 98

Today’s Record: 2-1
All-Time Record: 10-6