NBA 11/27

Utah Jazz @ Indiana Pacers (IND -1.5, 209.5) 7:10 PM

I really want to take the over. The Pacers have scored 111+ on 5 of their last 6 home games while the Jazz have allowed 115.7 ppg over their last 3 games, a big downgrade from the 103.5 ppg they allow on the season. But since I’ve been so wrong on the over/unders, I’ll pivot to the spread and I like the Pacers tonight. They have won 3 in a row and the Jazz are just 1-3 SU as an underdog this season. They are just 2-4 ATS after covering in the previous game. They have covered in their last 2 games, but have not covered 3 games in a row all season.

Bet: IND -1.5
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Jazz 102 Pacers 121

Orlando Magic @ Cleveland Cavaliers (ORL -1, 206) 7:10 PM

I think people are going to shy away from the over because the Magic’s offense has regressed over the last few games, giving flashbacks of earlier in the season when the under hit in the first 7 games. They have only scored 97 ppg over their last 3 games. However, their opponents were the Raptors, Pacers and Pistons, all strong defensive teams, especially lately. You know who isn’t a strong defensive team? The Cavs allowed 119.3 ppg over their last 6 games. The Magic have allowed 100+ in 5 straight and the Cavs offense has scored 100+ in 5 straight. Take the over here.

Bet: Over 206
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Magic 116 Cavaliers 104

Brooklyn Nets @ Boston Celtics (BOS -7, 214.5) 7:10 PM

The under has hit in 6 straight for the Celtics and 5 straight for the Nets. The Celtics are scoring 100.3 ppg and allowing 98.3 ppg in those 6 games. The Nets are scoring 102.8 ppg and allowing 102 ppg in those 5 games. This one is simple, take the under

Bet: Under 214.5
Confidence: 4 Units
Result: Nets 110 Celtics 121

Atlanta Hawks @ Milwaukee Bucks (MIL -14.5, 239.5) 8:10 PM

The Hawks suck. Like really suck. They have lost 10 of their last 11 and 8 of those 10 losses are by double digits. Now they travel to Milwaukee to play the highest scoring offense in the league. They have allowed at least 119 points in 10 straight games and are allowing an average of 127.3 ppg over that span. Averaging. That includes allowing 135 to Milwaukee the last time they played. The Hawks should be able to keep up as the Bucks have allowed 116 ppg over their last 4 games including 127 to the Hawks the last time these two played. Expect lots of points, take the over.

Bet: Over 239.5
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Hawks 102 Bucks 111

Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs (SA -2.5, 229) 8:40 PM

The Timberwolves are a different team on the road than they are at home. But interestingly enough, they are actually better away from Minneapolis. They are just 3-6 SU and 2-6-1 ATS at home and 6-2 SU and 6-2 ATS on the road. They are coming off a 12 point road win in Atlanta and have only played consecutive road games twice this season and won both games by 22. They have won their last 3 game outright as a road favorite. Now they play the Spurs who are just 6-12 SU and 4-14 ATS this season. They are just 1-6 ATS as a home favorite.

Bet: MIN +2.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Timberwolves 113 Spurs 101

Today’s Record: 3-2
All-Time Record: 28-25 (52.8%)