Denver Nuggets @ Philadelphia 76ers (PHI -4, 208.5) 8 PM
The Nuggets have lost 4 of their last 5 games, and have only averaged 103.8 ppg over that span including 3 games under 100 points. The 76ers have allowed 95 points or less in 5 of their last 9 games in which they have averaged allowing 100 ppg. The 76ers allow 98.7 ppg at home this season and are ranked 4th in ppg allowed overall. In the Nuggets 5 other games against top 5 scoring defenses, they have failed to score more than 100 points and averaged 95.6 ppg. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have held their opponents to 108 or less in 9 straight games in which they allow 100.6 ppg. That includes games against Houston (1st in scoring), Washington (3rd in scoring), Phoenix (5th in scoring) and the Lakers (9th in scoring). The 76ers rank 16th in scoring. I don’t see the Nuggets reaching 100 or the 76ers reaching 108. Leaves us with the under which has hit in 7 of the Nugget’s 8 road games and in 16 of the combined 21 games these teams have played with equal rest. Think 208.5 is too low? The under is 2-5 in Nugget’s games with a total of 210 or less and is 1-4 in the 76ers last 5 with a total of 210 or less.
Bet: Under 208.5
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Nuggets 92 76ers 97
Atlanta Hawks @ Miami Heat (MIA -9, 218.5) 8:10 PM
Miami Is 10-0 SU at homes this season and 14-1 SU vs teams with losing records. Although the Hawks are coming off a 15 point road victory in Charlotte, they are 1-4 SU after an outright win. The Heat’s defense is good, but they have allowed 105 points or more in 8 of their last 10 games, allowing an average of 107.9 ppg over that span. While the Hawks offense hasn’t been solid all year, they have averaged 112 ppg over their last 10 games. 4 of the last 5 Heat home games have gone over the total. The Heat only score 106.2 ppg on the road, but score 117.2 ppg at home while the Hawks defenses allows only 112 ppg at home, they allow 122.2 ppg on the road.
Bet: MIA ML/Over 218.5
Confidence: 2 Unit
Result: Hawks 121 Heat 135 OT
New York Knicks @ Portland Trailblazers (POR -8.5, 218.5) 10:10 PM
Look, I know, the Knicks have lost 9 in a row, but I think they are actually improving. The lost 6 of their first 9 games by double digits. But in the 12 games since, they have only lost by double digits 3 times. They are only scoring 98.8 ppg on their current losing streak, but here is the scoring rank of each defense they have faced over that span: 4, 25, 18, 7, 4, 2, 10, 1, 6. That’s 7 of those 9 games against top 10 scoring defenses. Portland ranks 24th. In their game against the 25th scoring defense they lost by 7 to the Spurs. Maybe I just feel sorry for them with how they lost to the Pacers, but I’m siding with the Knickerbockers tonight.
Bet: NYK +8.5
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Knicks 87 Trailblazers 115
Today’s Record: 2-1
All-Time Record: 36-32 (52.9%)
Jonny the Macedonian 