12/20
Buffalo @ Charlotte (BUF -6.5, 58) 2 PM
The Bulls have won 5 of their last 6 and would have six in a row if it weren’t for blowing a 21 point fourth quarter lead to Kent State. They have scored at least 43 points in 4 of their last 5 games. That’s in large part because they rank 8th in rushing yards per game thanks to sophomore running back, Jaret Patterson who has 1,626 rushing yards and 17 TDs on the season. Backup sophomore running back Kevin Marks has 1,008 rushing yards and 8 TDs. Meanwhile, Charlotte allows 5 yard per carry ranking 108th out of 130 in the nation. They have won 5 straight, but are just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS against bowl teams this season. The Bulls literally run away with this one. Final Score Prediction: Buffalo 38 Charlotte 20
Bet: BUF -6.5
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Buffalo 31 Charlotte 9
Utah State @ Kent State (UTAHST -6 ,65) 7:30 PM
The Golden Flashes needed three straight wins to become bowl eligible. Down 21 in the fourth quarter to Buffalo, they turned their season around and completed the task. The Aggies on the other hand won 3 of their last 4 games. However, they finished 3-3 in their last 6 games with losses of 24, 28 and 35 in their three losses. Kent State has covered 6 of their last 7 overall and are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog and each of their last 6 games have been decided by one possession. It’s going to be hard to bet on two MAC teams on the same day so my confidence here is low. Final Score Prediction: Utah State 34 Kent State 31
Bet: KENTST +6
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Utah State 41 Kent State 51
12/21
Central Michigan @ San Diego State (SDST -3.5, 41) 2 PM
The Under has hit in 11 of the Aztec’s 12 games this season and in 20 of their last 25 overall dating back to last season. They allow 14 ppg which ranks 5th in the country and allow only 300.9 yards per game which ranks 9th. Central Michigan’s defense is underrated, allowing only 360.8 yards per game which ranks 35th and rank 25th in 3rd down defense. The Aztecs offense is weak, scoring 20.2 ppg which ranks 112th which is surprising because they rank 2nd in the country in turnover margin. These have been the totals in each of the last 5 Aztec games: 37, 30, 24, 25, 16. The total has been 41 points or under in all but 2 games this season and the highest it got was 48. Final Score Prediction: Central Michigan 17 San Diego State 20
Bet: Under 41
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Central Michigan 11 San Diego State 48
Liberty @ Georgia Southern (GASO -5, 60) 2:30 PM
The quarterbacks on these teams are two of the most careful quarterbacks in college football. On Liberty’s side is senior quarterback Stephen Calvert. He went 295 passes this season without throwing an interception from September 7 to November 23rd. He’s thrown 36 TD and 5 INT this season while passing for 281.6 ppg which ranks 26th. On the Georgia Southern side is junior quarterback Shai Werts who has not thrown an interception since 2017. Over the past two seasons, he has thrown 19 TDs and 0 INTs. This is largely because they rank 5th in rushes per game. Because of the lack of turnovers in this game, paired with the fact Georgia Southern runs the snot out of the ball, not to mention they rank 117th on 3rd down conversions, I expect punts and long, extended drives with long field positions. Final Score Prediction: Liberty 23 Georgia Southern 30
Bet: Under 60
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Liberty 23 Georgia Southern 16
SMU @ Florida Atlantic (SMU -3.5, 70.5) 3:30 PM
These are two of the most prolific offenses in the country. SMU scores 43.0 ppg which ranks 5th while FAU scores 34.7 ppg which ranks 19th. However, there is value on the under. FAU’s defense allows 23.6 ppg which ranks 35th and while the first 7 games resulted in an over, 3 of the last 5 SMU games have hit the under. The under is 5-0 after going over in the previous FAU game, which it did in their regular season finale. However, SMU has scored 34 points or more in every game this season while FAU has scored 31 points or more in 10 of their last 11 games, so betting the under when these two face off is too scary. Instead, I’ll side with SMU who still has their coach from their season. FAU is on to next season already. Final Score Prediction: SMU 37 Florida Atlantic 31
Bet: SMU -3.5
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: SMU 28 FAU 52
Florida International @ Arkansas State (ARKST -2.5, 63) 5:30 PM
FIU’s weakness is their rush defense. They allow 210.5 rushing yards per game which ranks 109th. However, Arkansas State’s strength on offense is their passing offense which ranks 15th in yards per game and 16th in completion percentage. FIU’s pass defense only allows 174.4 yard per game which ranks 7th in the country. Arkansas State will need to redefine their team in order to exploit FIU. Furthermore, Arkansas State’s defense will struggle here. They allow 35.5 ppg (112th), 477.9 yards per game (116th) and 224.2 rushing yards per game (117th). Additionally, they make a lot of mistakes, ranking 115th in penalties per game and 102nd in turnovers per game. FIU has won 4 in a row after a straight up loss and will make it 5 with this bowl victory. Final Score Prediction: FIU 34 Arkansas State 28
Bet: FIU +2.5
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: FIU 26 Arkansas State 34
Boise State @ Washington (WASH -4, 49.5) 7:30 PM
Chris Peterson wraps up his six year tenure at Washington by facing off against his former team in his last bowl game as a head coach. I’ll take the over on statue of liberty plays here. In all seriousness, this could be the best game of the bowl season. The Huskies defense has been up and down this season. The first five games of the season, the Huskies allowed 17.4 ppg. Then, over a three game stretch, they allowed 31.7 ppg, two of those against PAC12 finalists Oregon and Utah. Then they held the final three opponents on their schedule to just 13.3 ppg including holding the top scoring offense in the PAC12, Washington State, to only 13 points. Meanwhile, Boise State’s had a 3 game stretch in the middle of their season where they allowed 35.7 ppg. In their other 10 games this season, they only allow 16.1 ppg. Both defenses show up and keep this below the number. Final Score: Boise State 21 Washington 24
Bet: Under 49.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Boise State 7 Washington 38
Appalachian State @ UAB (APPST -16.5, 48) 9 PM
The Mountaineers of Appalachian State are 12-1 this season, and are one 3 point loss to Georgia Southern from being undefeated. In their 10 wins this season, their average margin of victory is 25 points per win. The Blazers are 9-4 this season against weak competition. They have failed to cover in 4 of their last 6 games overall. In their 4 losses this season, they lost by an average margin of 27 points per loss. They are coming off a 49-6 beating in their final game against FAU and should expect another beat down in their bowl game.
Bet: APPST -16.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: App State 31 UAB 17
Bowl Record: 4-4
All-Time Record: 31-36 (46.3%)
Jonny the Macedonian 