NFL 12/21

Houston Texans @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (HOU -3, 50) 1 PM

The Bucs have won 4 in a row and 5 of their last 6 games, but will be shorthanded as both top wide outs, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, are out with injuries. Their secondary has been horrible all season long, allowing the 3^rd most passing yards per game. Watson and Hopkins should feast on this great matchup. Despite covering 3 of their last 4, the Bucs are just 1-5-1 ATS against teams with winning records. I would have taken the Texans even with the Bucs at full strength, but I think Hopkins will prove too much and the Texans will leave this one a winner. Final Score: Texans 34 Buccaneers 23

Bet: HOU -3
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Texans 23 Buccaneers 20

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (NE -6.5, 37) 4:30 PM

Based on how these teams have been playing over the last couple months, this spread somewhat surprised me. However, this is still Tom Brady and Foxboro in December. Will Josh Allen be up for this tough task? I’ll probably put some money on the Bills, but there is always that strange possibility with the Pats to get a blocked punt or some weird special teams play to get the cover. Instead, there is a trend here that gives us a lot of value. The under is 10-0 when Josh Allen is a road underdog. This is McDermott’s game plan, to eliminate mistakes, trust the defense, and grind out a low scoring game. This probably fits in to Belichick’s game plan as well with how poorly the offense has been, and especially because Edelman is banged up. The under is 11-3 in Bills games this season, and 2 of the overs both came against the Dolphins. With two of the best defenses going at it in cold weather, I’ll hammer the under. Final Score Prediction: Bills 12 Patriots 17

Bet: Under 37
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Bills 17 Patriots 24

Today’s Record: 0-1
All-Time Record: 19-27 (41.3%)