UCF @ Marshall (UCF -15.5, 59) 2:30 PM
The Knights lost 3 games this season, a huge downgrade from their previous two seasons in which they had none and won a “National Championship.” Still a very good team that averaged 41.3 ppg which ranks 6th. However, they are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Meanwhile, Marshall won 6 of their last 7 games, including beating 4 bowl teams in the span. Marshall’s defense has greatly improved late in season. They allowed an average of 26.6 ppg over their first 7 games, but have held their last 5 opponents to 18.3 ppg. I think they do enough to keep this within the number. Final Score Prediction: UCF 38 Marshall 27
Bet: MAR +15.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: UCF 48 Marshall 25
BYU vs Hawaii (BYU -2.5, 64) 8 PM
The Cougars are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss while Hawaii has gone 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games against a team with a winning record and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games. BYU has not allowed more than 25 points in their last 6 games. I think their defense should keep Hawaii in check and get the win. Final Score Prediction: BYU 34 Hawaii 27
Bet: BYU -2.5
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Hawaii 38 BYU 34
Louisiana Tech vs Miami (MIA -7, 49) 4 PM
Although the Bulldogs averaged 52 points over a 4 game stretch in the middle of the season, the offense fluttered down the stretch, scoring 10 and 14 points against Marshall and UAB respectively. The Hurricanes defense allows 323.3 yards per game which ranks 15th and only 114.3 rush yards per game which ranks 14th. Given the fact the Bulldogs rank 113th in passes per game, this will be a tough adjustment. The Hurricanes offense is horrible too, ranking 120th in rushing yards per game, 97th in total yards per game and last of qualifying 130 teams on 3rd down. I don’t like either of these teams, so I’ll side with the under. Final Score Prediction: Louisiana Tech 17 Miami 24
Bet: Under 49
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Louisiana Tech 14 Miami 0
Pittsburgh vs Eastern Michigan (PIT -13, 49) 8 PM
Return of the MACtion as the Eagles try to take down the Panthers. The Panthers had covered in 7 of 9 games, but failed to cover in their final two games. The Eagles on the other hand have been involved in 5 games decided by 20 points or more, being on the wrong side of those games in 3 of those 5. The Eagles rank 109th on 3rd down defense and 110th is rushing yards allowed per game. But the story here isn’t about the defense, but the offenses. The Eagles rank 100th in redzone offense and 108th in rushing yards per game. Good luck passing against Pitts front 7 that ranks 3rd in sack percentage. The Panthers rank 104th in redzone offense and119th in rushing yards per game. Good luck passing as they rank 108th is yards per pass. The Panthers have the advantage here, but they have scored 20 points just once in their last 5 games, so I’ll lean the Under. The Under is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 bowl games as a favorite and is 6-1 in Panthers last 7 non-conference games. Final Score Prediction: Pittsburgh 26 Eastern Michigan 16
Bet: Under 49
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Pittsburgh 34 Eastern Michigan 30
North Carolina vs Temple (UNC -6.5, 54.5) 12 PM
The Owls covered in each of their final 4 games on the season, and held their opponents to 15 ppg during that span. They have the 5th best redzone defense in the country. As an underdog, the Owls are 5-2 ATS this season including 4 SU wins. They have also covered in 5 of their last 7 non-conference games. The Tar Heels on the other hand are just 2-5 ATS against teams with winning records and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games. Temple has a shot to win outright, so I’ll gladly take the points. Final Score Prediction: North Carolina 27 Temple 24
Bet: TEM +6.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: North Carolina 55 Temple 13
Michigan State vs Wake Forest (MSU -4, 50) 3:20 PM
The Spartans had a disappointing season. After starting 4-1, the Spartans dropped their next 5 games, but won their final two to become bowl eligible. However, 4 of their 6 losses this season came against top 14 teams. They were 6-2 against all other schools. They averaged 29.6 points against unranked teams and just 6.8 ppg against ranked teams. They allowed 16 ppg against unranked teams and 36 ppg against ranked teams. Although the Demon Decons went 8-4 this season, they were just 1-3 against teams with winning records. Michigan State’s defense that allows 320.1 yards per game ranks 13th and should be able to get enough stops to cover. Final Score Prediction: Michigan State 24 Wake Forest 17
Bet: MSU -4
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Michigan State 27 Wake Forest 21
Oklahoma State vs Texas A&M (TA&M -4, 55) 6:45 PM
These are two very similarly matched teams. I’ve been back and forth, so I’ll side with the over here. Both teams average over 30 points a game The Cowboys have scored at least 30 in 8 of their 12 games while the Aggies have scored at least 30 in 6 of the 7 games they were favored. Final Score Prediction: Oklahoma State 30 Texas A&M 33
Bet: Over 55
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Oklahoma State 21 Texas A&M 24
Washington State vs Air Force (AF -2.5, 71) 10:15 PM
Air Force finished the season with 7 straight wins and covering in 5 of those games on their way to a 10-2 record. They rank 2nd is rush yards per games, 2nd on 3rd down percentage, 1st in penalties per game and oh yeah, they haven’t missed a FG this season. The Cougars are 6-6, lost 5 of 6 games at one point and have not beaten a team with a winning record. They have lost their last 5 games away from home, and think Air Force should take this one as well. Final Score Prediction: Washington State 20 Air Force 41
Bet: AF -2.5
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Washington State 21 Air Force 31
USC vs Iowa (IOWA -2, 52.5) 8 PM
Another toss up game here. Both teams won 5 of their last 6 games. USC scored at least 27 points in all but 2 games this season and now they get the 5th best scoring defense in the country. I’ll take the better conference tested team here in the Hawkeyes. USC has gone 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog while Iowa has gone 6-2 ATS in non conference games. Final Score Prediction: USC 27 Iowa 30
Bet: IOWA -2
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: USC 24 Iowa 49
Memphis vs Penn State (PSU -7, 60.5) 12 PM
The Cotton Bowl has been decided by less than 8 points just once since 2007 and the lower ranked team has won just twice since 2000. Does that bode well for the Nitty Lions? Memphis no doubt has one of the best offenses in the country. However, in their 5 games against top 60 scoring defenses, they scored 35 points or less in each game averaging 28.2 ppg. In all other 8 games, they scored at least 42 points and averaged 48.3 ppg. This Nitty Lions defense is the toughest Memphis will play all season, allowing an average of 14.7 ppg which ranks 7th. The redzone will make a difference here as Penn State’s offense ranks 28th in the redzone while Memphis’ defense ranks 110th. Subsequently, Memphis’ offense ranks 74th in the redzone while Penn State’s defense ranks 36th. There’s your advantage. Final Score Prediction: Memphis 20 Penn State 34
Bet: PSU -7
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Memphis 39 Penn State 53
Notre Dame vs Iowa State (ND -3.5, 53.5) 12 PM
This is the first ever meeting between these two schools, so there will be no shortage of motivation for either side. The Irish have won 5 in a row and have score 40+ in three straight games for the first time in their history. The covered in each of their final 4 games. The Cyclones lost 3 of their last 5 games and are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games. Expect the Cyclones to try and air it out as they rank 116th in rushes per game and 16th in passes per game. The problem, however, is the Irish have one of the best secondaries in the league, allowing only 163.7 passing yards per game which is 3rd best in the country. While the Cyclones rank 14th in yards per game, they rank 76th on third downs while Notre Dame’s defense ranks 18th. Final Score Prediction: Notre Dame 31 Iowa State 20
Bet: ND -3.5
Confidence: 4 Units
Result: Notre Dame 33 Iowa State 9
Oklahoma vs LSU (LSU -14, 76) 4 PM
5 of the last 6 games for the Sooners have been decided by one possession. They have covered in just 2 of their last 9 games. However, the defense has improved this season, allowing 30+ just 3 times in their last 12 games. LSU has given up 4 such games over their last 12 games. Joe Burrow’s been the x factor, so I like LSU, but I’ll side with the under in this one. The Under is 4-0 in the Sooner’s last 4 games while LSU’s defense has allowed only 12.3 ppg over their last 3 games. Final Score Prediction: Oklahoma 24 LSU 41
Bet: Under 76
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Oklahoma 28 LSU 63
Clemson vs Ohio State (CLEM -2.5, 62.5) 8 PM
I won’t say anything bad about either team here. These are two power houses and we are in for a treat. The Buckeyes won their first 9 games by an average margin of victory of 42.4 ppg and going 8-1 ATS. However, in their last 4 games, they are “only” destroying their opponents by 22 ppg and are 1-3 ATS. Clemson “only” crushed their first 5 opponents by 26 ppg and went 3-2 ATS. But in their final 8 games, they won by an average of 42.1 ppg and went 7-1 ATS with their only non cover against Wofford in which they won by 45 and didn’t cover the 48.5 point spread. They have scored 52 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games and have held their 12 of their 13 opponents to 17 points or less! There’s not much to say here, except that I think Clemson may feel a little more disrespected and will come out fired up. Justin Fields a bit shaken up and I think that’s enough to give the Tigers an edge here. Final Score Prediction: Clemson 37 Ohio State 23
Bet: CLEM -2.5
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Clemson 29 Ohio State 23
Bowl Record: 11-11
All-Time Record: 38-43 (46.9%)
Jonny the Macedonian 