Minnesota Vikings @ San Francisco 49ers (SF-7, 44) 4:35 PM
You may consider the Under in this one. Both defenses rank in the top 10 and both running games rank in the top 5. Despite this, the Over is 7-2-1 in the 49er’s last 10 games and 8-4 in the Viking’s last 12 games. So instead, I will lean on the side of the Vikings. The 49ers are 0-7 ATS this season as a favorite of 6 or more points. The Vikings on the other hand are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog. With a defense that is only allowing 16.2 ppg over their last 5 and Dalvin Cook back healthy, they should be able to control the time of possession and keep this one close. Final Score Prediction: Vikings 21 49ers 24
Bet: MIN +7
Confidence: 4 Units
Result: Vikings 10 49ers 27
*Bonus Prop Bets
Jimmy G is having a comeback season for the ages, leading his team to a number 1 seed coming back from a tough injury. However, the run game and defense has been a big part of that. This will be the second best rush offense the 49ers have faced, the first being the Ravens. Jimmy G only threw for 165 yards in that game. I think this game could be similar and I expect to see a lot of each team’s run games. Mostert has run for more than 52 yards in 5 straight games and has scored a touchdown in 6 straight games.
Bets: Jimmy Garoppolo Under 252.5 Passing Yards
Raheem Mostert Over 52.5 Rushing Yards
Raheem Mostert First TD Scorer
Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens (BAL -9.5, 47.5)
The Ravens have won their last 5 games against this years playoff teams, winning those 5 games by an average of 15 ppg. They’ve won their last 6 games at home by an average of 16.5 ppg. The Ravens are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games and have won 8 of those 10 games by 14 points or more. 6 of their last 10 games have been against teams that ended the season with a winning record. Tennessee’s offense, despite Derick Henry’s 182 yards rushing, only scored 14 points last week in New England and now they get a Ravens defense that has allowed more than 17 points just twice since Week 5. Meanwhile, Lamar and the offense has scored 30+ in 7 of their last 10 games. Baltimore will be hyped to host a playoff game. Take Lamar and enjoy the benefits. Final Score Prediction: Titans 10 Ravens 34
Bet: BAL -9.5
Confidence: 3 Units
Result:
*Bonus Prop Bets
The Ravens average 37.2 rushes per game, the best in the league by over 6 carries (the next closest is San Francisco with 31.1 rushes per game). This means Lamar does not have to pass it much. In fact he’s had more than 25 attempts just once since Week 6 which came in his final regular season game in Cleveland. He’s averaged just 180 yards passing over those 9 games. Since week 4, his most passing yards in a game is 238, also in week 16 in Cleveland. I just don’t think this is a game he will need to pass for many yards so I’ll take the Under.
What he is able to do through the air is torch defenses in the redzone. He has thrown for 3 or more touchdowns in 6 of his last 7 games. Unfortunately, we can only bet Over 1.5 passing touchdowns at -167 odds, but I think it’s worth it.
Let’s keep the MVP bets going and bet the Over 77.5 on his rushing yards. He’s rushed for 79 yards or more in 5 of his last 6 games and 7 of his last 10 games. I think the playoffs bring out something special here and we see him display his greatness.
As for a first TD, I’ll have a few bets on this one. Since we like Baltimore to win big, it makes sense to pick a Raven. Ingram leads the team with 12 redzone TDs, followed by Andrews with 9. Both players come banged up in this one. The next closest is Marquise Brown and Lamar Jackson with 4 each. There are 3 other guys that have multiple redzone touchdowns (Snead, Boykins, Boyle). Keep an eye on Gus Edwards who only has 1 redzone touchdown, but 23 redzone carries, second only to Ingram’s 27. The Titans allowed 9 touchdowns to tight ends this season, third most in the league. They allow the 10th most touchdowns to running backs and allow the 21st most touchdowns to wide receivers. They are only 1 of 9 teams to allow 1 or 0 rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. My order in which I like the first TD scorer: Andrews, Ingram, Jackson, Brown, Edwards, Hurst, Boyle
Bets: Lamar Jackson Under 220.5 Passing Yards
Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 Passing TDs
Lamar Jackson Over 77.5 Rushing Yards
Lamar Jackson to Score & Ravens to Win
Mark Andrews First TD Scorer
Playoff Record: 2-4
All-Time Record: 21-31 (40.4%)
Jonny the Macedonian 