Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -10, 50.5) 3:05 PM
This is the second matchup this season between these two teams, the first resulting in a 31-24 win for the Texans in Arrowhead. The Texans rallied from down 17-3 in the first half to get the win. Now they enter as 10 point underdogs, coming off a comeback win against the Bills. The Texans are 6-3 ATS as underdogs while the Chiefs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games. The Chiefs played 6 games this season against playoff teams and they were 3-3 ATS and their biggest win was a 7 point victory against New England. The Texans are 5-1 ATS against playoff teams, and I think this spread is just too high. Final Score Prediction: Texans 27 Chiefs 34
Bet: HOU +10
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Texans 31 Chiefs 51
*Bonus Prop Bets
Tyreek Hill has only scored a touchdown in 1 of his last 7 games. Travis Kelce only has 1 receiving touchdown in his last 6 games. Damien Williams, however, has a touchdown in 4 of his last 6 games. He’s healthy, McCoy isn’t really in the picture anymore, I like Damien Williams to score the first touchdown either running or receiving.
Patrick Mahome’s passing total is set at 299.5 yards. However, he has thrown for 283 yards or less in 5 of his last 6 games. He threw for 273 the first time these teams played, and with a healthy Damien Williams, I don’t think he gets there again.
Some really poor odds for this one, but no way Duke Johnson doesn’t get 2.5 catches today. He has hit 3 catches in 4 of his last 6 games, and they will need to rely on him in this kind of game. I expect 5 + from him so I will swallow the bad odds.
Bets: Damien Williams First TD Scorer
Patrick Mahomes Under 299.5 Passing Yards
Duke Johnson Over 2.5 Receptions
Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers (GB -4, 45.5) 6:40 PM
The Packers are 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS at home this season. The Seahawks are 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS on the road and 4-1 ATS as a road underdog. What gives? The Under is 7-1 in the Packer’s last 8 games and 3-9 vs NFC teams while the Under is 2-4-1 in the Seahawk’s last 7 games. The Seahawks have scored 21 points or less in 5 of their last 7 games while the Packer’s have allowed 20 points or less in 6 of their last 7. Seahawks Under 20.5 points looks good and so does an odds boost on the Under and Packers moneyline. Final Score Prediction: Seahawks 16 Packers 22
Bet: Seahawks Under 20.5 Points
Under 44.5/GB ML
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Seahawks 23 Packers 28
The Seahawks allowed 18 rushing touchdowns this season, 2nd worst in the league. Green Bay allowed 15 rushing touchdowns which was 4th worst in the league. Marshawn Lynch got every redzone carry in the last 2 weeks when they weren’t getting delay of games. Fire up both Lynch and Jones as first touchdown scorers and any time scorers.
The Seahawks give up rushing touchdowns, so it makes sense they rank 6th best in passing touchdowns allowed. Aaron Rodgers has only thrown multiple touchdowns in 2 of his last 8 games. Plus his family hates him. Fire up the under 1.5 passing touchdowns for Danica’s boyfriend.
Jimmy Graham revenge game! Ok, he only has 11 catches in the last 6 weeks, but, the Seahawks allow the second most receptions to tight ends, allowing an average of 6.2 receptions to tight ends per game. They have allowed 3 or more catches to tight ends in 6 of their last 8 games and have allowed 7 or more catches to tight ends in 4 of their last 7 games. At plus money, I think the over 2.5 receptions might be worth a shot.
I know the “lock of the year” is Wilson over 24.5 rushing yards, and for good reason, mostly because he can get that in one play. But here are reasons to bet against that. The Packers allow the 7th fewest rushing attempts to opposing quarterbacks. They have allowed less than 15 yards rushing to opposing quarterbacks in 13 of their 16 games. They have held their opposing quarterback to 5 yards or less in 6 of their last 10 games, including 1 or less yard in 4 of those games. The most rushing yards they allowed to an opposing quarterback this season was, you guessed it, Mitch Trubisky with only 29 yards. It’’s true, they haven’t really faced a true rushing quarterback this season, but is Wilson a rushing quarterback? He has run 17 times in last two games, but before that, he ran for 15 yards or less in 4 of 5 games. I think I’ll trust this Packers defense to contain him, and take my shot at plus money on the under.
Bets: Aaron Jones First TD Scorer
Marshawn Lynch First TD Scorer
Aaron Jones Any Time Scorer
Marshawn Lynch Any Time Scorer
Aaron Rodgers Under 1.5 Passing TDs
Jimmy Graham Over 2.5 Receptions
Russell Wilson Under 24.5 Rushing Yards
Playoff Record: 2-6
All-Time Record: 21-33 (38.9%)
Jonny the Macedonian 