Pittsburgh vs Wake Forest (+2) 4:30 PM
The Panthers have lost their last 7 games of the regular season and are just 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall. These two teams faced off only once this season, a 4 point road victory as a 6.5 point underdog for Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons were 9-5 ATS down the stretch, including straight up wins as an underdog against Clemson, North Carolina, Notre Dame and Duke. Wrong team favored here.
North Carolina (-4.5) vs Virginia Tech 7 PM
Obviously, a disappointing year for the Tar Heels. No one would have expected they would end up dead last in the ACC, but here we are. They had losing streaks of 4, 5 and 7 at different points in the season. But they were able to win and cover in the 3 previous games before getting beat by Duke in Cameron Indoor Stadium by 13. I think Virginia Tech, too, had a disappointing season. Beating Michigan State in Maui seemed like a big step for the program, but they finished just 7-13 in conference play, including losing 10 of their last 12 games. In fact, they were just 2-12 ATS in their final 14 games. I’ll take the slightly improved Tar Heels to cover this reasonable spread.
UIC vs Northern Kentucky (-4.5) 7 PM
Here were the results of the first two meetings between these two teams:
1/10 Northern Kentucky 68 @ UIC 52
2/16 UIC 73 @ Northern Kentucky 43
In other words, the road team has obliterated the home team. So what happens on a neutral court?
Northern Kentucky appears to be more consist long term, going 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games while UIC has not covered 4 in a row all season. They have currently covered 3 in a row, and that trend should continue. Book Northern Kentucky as a 15 seed as they get the win here in the Championship.
Saint Mary’s vs Gonzaga (-9) 9 PM
The Bulldogs almost lost to San Francisco and Saint Mary’s is playing their best ball after upsetting BYU in the semis. Does this spread seem high to you? Actually, no. They are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games, but were favored by 10+ in 8 of those games. They are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a single digit favorite or underdog, including a 30 point win at Saint Marys. Before Gonzaga’s 4 point win vs. San Francisco, 12 of their previous 13 wins were by double digits, including both games against the Gaels. The Gaels themselves have not been a great bet, going just 3-6 ATS in their last 9. Don’t be surprised when the Bulldogs win this one big.
Jonny the Macedonian 