Orlando Magic vs Milwaukee Bucks (-12.5) 1:40 PM
The over/under is set at 225.5 as of right now. When these two teams have played this season, the Under is 4-0, with totals of 214, 211, 211 and 206. These all happened before the bubble, however, the Bucks just haven’t looked themselves. They are right around their season average for points per game of 118.7 ppg, while scoring 118.9 ppg in the bubble. The Magic are only scoring 109.5 ppg in their last 6 games and are shooting just 30% from the 3-point line. I think the Bucks blow them out, so no need to worry about late game free throws and may even get some starters resting. Let’s ride the under.
Final Score Prediction: Magic 101 Bucks 118
Bet: Under 225.5
Miami Heat (-4.5) vs Indiana Pacers 4:10 PM
The Heat rank 27th in pace of play, but are #1 in 3-pointers inside the bubble, while the Pacers have aguy like TJ Warren who could go for 50 or 12 (like he did the last time he played the Heat). So the total of 215 is out for me. I’m leaning the under because if the Heat again focus their defense on Warren, Oladipo’s 34% from 3 in the bubble is not so promising. I’m also leaning the Heat on the spread, but a well coached and healthy Pacer team that is hungry, kind of like that too. So instead my bet for this game is player prop for Bam Adebayo. Bam averaged 10.2 rebounds per game this season, and now faces a Pacer team that ranked dead last in rebounding inside the bubble. Bam gathered 9 rebounds in just 22 minutes in the Heat’s blowout win last Monday against the Pacers. If the Pacers keep it a bit closer, he’ll see more minutes, thus more rebounds. In his other two games against the Pacers he had 9 and 15 rebounds, but that was with Sabonis. Take Bam to gather up some boards.
Final Score Prediction: Heat 109 Pacers 103
Bet: Bam Adebayo Over 9.5 Rebounds
Oklahoma City Thunder (-1.5) vs Houston Rockets 6:40 PM
No Westbrook for the Rockets, so it’s up to Harden to lead the way. If you can find an attempts prop, hammer the over, because he’ll be shooting it 50-60 times tonight. Problem for the Rockets though: he is shooting 6/40 (15%) from the 3-point line and just 22/67 (32.8%) overall against the Thunder this season. With no Westbrook and Harden’s struggles against the Thunder, I’ll take a hungry Chris Paul to get the W here.
Final Score Prediction: Thunder 117 Rockets 108
Bet: OKC -1.5
Portland Trailblazers vs Los Angeles Lakers (-6) 9:10 PM
The Over is 8-1 for the Trailblazers in the bubble and 4-2 in the Lakers last 6 games. The total is set at a low 230.5 in this contest. Here is why that is a mistake. Here were the final totals in Portland’s 9 games in the bubble: 275, 252, 212, 240, 239, 245, 265, 267, 248! That is an average of 249.2 ppg in the bubble, roughly 19 points higher than the total. Hammer, hammer, hammer the Over!
Final Score Prediction: Trailblazers 121 Lakers 127
Bet: Over 230.5
Bonus Picks:
In the MLB we have some hot trends to pick on today.
-The Over is 12-1 for the Angels at home. Cahill gets the mound for the Giants today, and he had an ERA of 5.98 with the Angels last season. Revenge game for the Angels, Trout on fire, yep, hammer the over.
-The Under is 11-1 for the Twins at home. The Twins rank 3rd in ERA and 1st in bullpen ERA. Their opponent, Milwaukee ranks 11th in ERA and 2nd in bullpen ERA. The overs tend to get boosted because of the Twins booming offense, but against the Brewer’s bullpen and against the Brewer’s offense, which ranks 26th in runs per game, with Maeda (2.66 ERA) this should stay under yet again.
NHL has a juicy trend to pick on as well.
-The Capitols can’t score. Can’t do it, won’t do it. Well, they’ve scored 10 goals in 6 games, but only 2 of those goals came on 5 on 5s. Between these teams, they are a combined 12-1 in first period goals going Under and 11-2 to the no goals in the first 10 minutes. So two bets here: First Period Under 1.5 goals (-132) and Under 5.5 Goals (-145).
Jonny the Macedonian 