NFL Week 14

Expect some points this week! I have 3 over plays for you this week and a few TD props. Good luck folks!

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars 1 PM

Over machine Tannehill back on the slate today, and will probably be on every slate going forward. The Over is now 19-2-1 when he starts for the Titans. The Over is 9-1-1 in the Titans last 11 games this season. The first meeting between these two ended 33-30 and I expect the same kind of fireworks here. The Jaguars have allowed a receiver to have 100+ yards and a TD in 8 straight games, so might want to look at over props for AJ Brown today who was out in that week 2 matchup.

Final Score Prediction: Titans 40 Jaguars 24
Bet: Over 52

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions 4:25 PM

Packers can’t stop the run. No one can stop Devante Adams. Both these defenses suck. Recipe for points. The Over is 4-2 in Packers road games while the Over is 5-0 in Detroit home games. The Packers average 33.7 ppg against teams with losing records, scoring 30+ in 6 of 7. The Lions have allowed 30+ in 4 of their last 6 games, and in 3 games where they played a team with a winning record this season, they have allowed 39.3 ppg, including allowing 42 to the Packers in their first matchup.

Final Score Prediction: Packers 41 Lions 24
Bet: Over 54.5

BONUS PROP BET** Aaron Jones 2+ TDs

The Lions have allowed 20 TDs to running backs in the last 9 weeks. In 7 of those games, they have scored at least 2 touchdowns. 3 of the 9, they scored 3 touchdowns. Packers are going to score 4 or 5 touchdowns today and you know Adams will have 1 or 2, which leaves room for Jones to get back into the endzone against this awful defense.

Indianapolis Colts @ Las Vegas Raiders 4:05 PM

Disclaimer, I thought about including a teaser of KC -1/TB -1 on the slate today, but not at the trends and stats fully support that, plus the trends that do, aren’t very fun, and I am a man of the people, here to provide some wonky stats for you. The over is 7-0 in the last 7 times the Colts have traveled over 1,000 miles. Now that’s funky. Furthermore, the Over is 6-2 in the last 8 Colts games, and 4-1 the last 5 Vegas home games. This is also why I like the Colts -3 in this game, because while I think this game goes over, the Colts defense is much better than the Raiders.

Final Score Prediction: Colts 37 Raiders 23
Bet: Over 52