It’s Wildcard Weekend, and boy are we in for a WILD weekend! This weekend has some unbelieveable trends that are worth noting. The outright winner is 44-5-1 ATS in the last 50 wildcard games, so if you like an underdog, go with it outright. Speaking of underdogs, the underdog is on a 10-3-1 run in the NFC. As for totals, the Under is 44-27-1 (about 61%) in the last 72 wildcard games, including 10-2 the last 3 season and 4-0 last season. The 3-6 matchup is an under machine. Looking at you Rams-Seahawks and Browns-Steelers. The Under is an unbelievable 15-0-1 in the last 8 years in those matchups. Let’s roll with some picks for Saturday. Good luck all!
Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills 1PM
I was 15 years old as I watched Phillip Rivers leave the playoff game in the last game ever played in my beloved RCA Dome. Still, as Billy Volek marched down the field to eventually lead the Chargers to a win that would knock Peyton Manning and the Colts out of the playoffs, oof, Rivers stayed on the sidelines, chirping at our fans, vein popping out his head, pointing and ranting like a son of flubbin’ darn nabbin’ goober that he is. I said on that day, “I hate that guy more than Tom Brady.”
For the next 12 years that guy threw pick sixes, never made it to an AFC Championship, lost the city of San Diego, and got booted from the franchise. But all must be forgiven. Today, the Colts get their shot at the hottest team in the world right now. It feels like “you can’t touch this.” The Bills are on an 8-0 ATS run to end the season. They are only the fifth team to end on such a run, and the previous four all covered and won in their playoff game.
Jonathan Taylor is the real deal, I promise you. In his first 9 games, he ran for an average of 12.6 attempts per game for 3.8 yards per carry. But in his last 6 games, he has torched defenses and has ran for 19.8 attempts per game for 6.2 yards per carry. Keep the ball out of Josh Allen’s hands will probably be the game plan and against the Bills 17th ranked run defense is the way to go about it. In the last 10 weeks, the Bills have allowed 7 running backs with at least 6 carries to run for over 6 yards per carry.
Bet: Taylor over 79.5 yards
Rivers is 4-0 SU in the wildcard round and has the experience to handle a game of this magnitude. He is 6-2 ATS as an underdog in the playoffs, and 4-0 ATS as an underdog of more than a touchdown. I get the Bills are on fire, but on their current 6 game winning streak, their only win came against the depleted Steelers team. The Colts have scored a first quarter touchdown in 7 straight games, while the Bills have scored just 10 first quarter points in the last 5 weeks. Colts jump out early, and hang on for dear life.
Final Score Prediction: Colts 27 Bills 24
Bet: IND +6.5
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks 4:40PM
The Rams offense is a mess right now. I don’t know who plays quarterback for them, but I’m not sure it matters. The Seahawks defense has allowed just 14 points per game over their final 6 games. The First half total for the Rams is 9.5 which I think is too high. Either Goff comes in and takes a while to get going or they have an AAF quarterback in there. The Seahawks have not allowed more than 7 points to be scored on them in the first half in 7 straight weeks in which they are only allowing an average of 4 first half points per game in that span.
Bet: Rams Under 9.5 First Half
Russell Wilson, that sneaky SOB, has been sacked by the Rams 11 times this season. This Rams defense causes problems for this offense that has struggled in recent weeks. The Under is 7-1 in the Seahawks last 8 games. The total stayed at 40 or under in 5 of those 8 games. The Under is 11-2 in the Rams last 13 games. The Under stayed under the total by 16 in their first matchup and 18.5 in their second matchup. I’d be surprised if this reached 30, let alone the 40s!
Final Score Prediction: Rams 13 Seahawks 16
Bet: Under 42.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Football Team 8:15PM
How will Brady handle his first spot as a wildcard? In primetime no less. This offense is on fire lately, but it has been against some terrible teams (Detroit, Minnesota, Atlanta). We’ve seen him struggle against some of the better defenses (Chicago, New Orleans, LA Rams, even the NY Giants). The Football Team’s pass defense ranks 2nd in the league and is the type of defense that can cause Brady some trouble (which would be lovely).
Bet: Brady Under 292.5 Passing yards
I don’t like this matchup for the Bucs, but I am also not stupid enough to bet against Brady in the playoffs (though we saw what happened to him last year). I think the Football Team keeps this close, but the Bucs should still be able to outplay Football Team’s offense. I lean the under in this one, but instead I will use this game in one of my teasers for Sunday.
Final Score Prediction: Buccaneers 24 Football Team 16
Bet: TB -2.5/PIT -0 Teaser
Jonny the Macedonian 