Kind of hit or miss on Saturday. Underdogs went 3-0 ATS and the Over hit in all three games. What will Sunday bring us? Not sure, but I know I’ll be in front of the t.v. for another 10 hours!
Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans 1 PM
This Titans team is an all time bad entering the playoffs. Since 2006, they rank 183rd out of 184 playoff teams in defensive efficiency. Since the merger in 1970, they enter the playoffs with the least sacks per game than any team in history! In games where Lamar was sacked once or zero times, the Ravens are 6-1. The one loss came in overtime to, you guessed it, the Titans.
I want to lean the Ravens here as the road team is 4-0 SU and ATS the last four times these teams have played. The Titans defense is trash. They rank 28th in yards per game allowed and 32nd on 3rd down defense this season. But there’s a 6’3’’ 247 pound monster that gives me hesitation. He ran for 133 this year and 195 in last years playoff game. I do think the Raven’s 8th ranked rush defense can contain him in this game, which might force Tannehill to air it out. In that case, I’m going with my old trusted bet in a Titans game. The Over is 12-3-1 this season for the Titans. Not only is the Over hitting, when it does, it goes over the total by an average of 12.7 points and 16.6 in the last 5.
Final Score Prediction: Ravens 34 Titans 26
Bet: Over 54
Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints 4:40 PM
Saints go back to full form this weekend as they get all their running backs and Michael Thomas coming back. The Bears lose Mooney which means it’s time for…Anthony Miller? The Saints have the #1 defense per DVOA in the league. Trubisky has only played twice this season against any team higher than 17 (both to the Packers, both loses). In fact in the 6 games where he played teams 20th or lower, he was 5-1, threw 12 TDs to 4 INTs and threw for 238.8 yards per game. The Bears scored 30.7 ppg. In the 3 games facing a top 20 team in DVOA, he is 1-2, threw 4 TDs and 4 INTs and threw for 207.3 yards per game. The Bears scored 23.6 ppg. The answer might have to come from the backfield. Montgomery was able to put up 89 yards the first time these two met. The Saints do allow the 3rd least rushing yards per game so it will not be easy. There are no stats here that say “Go with the Bears.” There are some trends though. The Saints are 2-9 ATS as a home favorite in the playoffs in their last 11 games while teams that do not have a winning record are now 8-1 ATS in the last 9 games in the playoffs after Washington’s cover last night. Underdogs are now 15-1 in the last 16 wildcard games. I don’t like it, but if Heinicke can cover against Brady, I’ll try my shot with Trubisky with this many points?
Final Score Prediction: Bears 22 Saints 29
Bet: CHI +10.5
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers 8:15 PM
Roethlisberger is 24-2-1 against the Browns. The Browns won’t have a head coach. Mason Rudolph almost beat them last week. The Browns cheered making the playoffs like they won the Super Bowl. Baker’s not that good. The Steelers beat them 38-7 in the first matchup between these two teams (with mostly healthy rosters). Shall I go on?
Final Score Prediction: Browns 13 Steelers 27
Bet: PIT -6
Jonny the Macedonian 