It’s Indy Madness. The First Four saw all four underdogs win outright. Get ready for a wild few weeks. Without further ado, here is a breakdown of the Madness to come.
Tournament breakdown
There is no such thing as a sure thing in March, I get that, but I will give you 4 games where I don’t see an upset coming (excluding top 3 seeds). You can moneyline parlay these for somewhere in the +200 – +250 range depending on which book you use.
4 Purdue > 13 North Texas
4 Florida State > 13 UNC Greensboro
8 Loyola-Chicago > 9 Georgia Tech
5 Colorado > 12 Georgetown
I will probably look back at those and laugh. But let’s get to some more fun. How about Top 3 seeds on upset alert (hello UMBC). When looking at these, I look at vulnerable, inexperienced teams with a weakness facing a well-rounded, sharp shooting team with the ability to get hot from deep.
15 Oral Roberts > 2 Ohio State
14 Alb-Christian > 3 Texas
13 Liberty > 4 Oklahoma State
I can also see 2 or more 1 and 2 seeds going down in the second round. Those matchups to lookout for:
7 Oregon > 2 Iowa
7 UConn > 2 Alabama
8 UNC > 1 Baylor
10 Virginia Tech > 2 Ohio State
Finally, when filling out your bracket, don’t forget, a double digit seed has made the sweet 16 in 33 of 35 years! Some teams in that arena that I like are 10 Virginia Tech, 11 Syracuse, and 13 Ohio. Also a fun trend, the number one overall team has lost in the first two rounds (4) more often than winning the championship (3). Are you on the Zags or no? Another trend to watch is a top 2 seed that was not ranked at the beginning of the year has NEVER made the Final Four. Unless Saban takes over, maybe fade Bama? And finally, when picking your champion, do you really want to ride with a conference that is both 0-7 SU and ATS in the last 7 National Championships they’ve played in. Sorry Big Ten!
Before I give some spread picks for the first round, I wanted to offer up my Final Four. We’re 2 years due for Madness, so don’t be surprised when we get a 7 Oregon, 7 UConn, 8 UNC and 8 Loyola Chicago Final Four, but I guess I’ll be a little more reserved with my picks.
WEST: 3 Kansas
EAST: 1 Michigan
SOUTH: 1 Baylor
MIDWEST: 2 Houston
Championship: 1 Baylor > 1 Michigan
In any bracket pool, I’m not picking Gonzaga because you have to differentiate to win. If you are in a bracket pool, the smarter plays to make runs and fade the public are Kansas, Michigan, Baylor and Houston. These are good teams with relatively easier paths than the more popular picks of Alabama or Illinois. And the popular 1 seeds are Gonzaga and Illinois, but Michigan and Baylor might be getting overlooked.
First Round – Friday
Texas Tech (-4) over Utah State; 1:45pm
This Utah State team beat San Diego State twice back in January which is why they are playing in this game today. But since those back to back wins, they have lost to Colorado State, UNLV and Boise State twice, not to mention falling to San Diego State in the conference title game. They are just 1-17 in their last 18 NCAA Tournament games while Chris Beard took his team to the championship game in 2019. Tournament experience alone, I’ll ride with the Red Raiders.
Syracuse (+3) over San Diego State; 9:40pm
Let’s keep fading the Mountain West. As favorites, the MWC is just 5-10 SU and 4-11 ATS since 2011. Syracuse isn’t the same zone powerhouse of years past, but they remain a tough matchup for anyone unfamiliar with the zone. The ACC is down this year, but as double digit seeds, ACC teams are on a 12-4-1 ATS run. Buddy Boehiem just sounds like a tournament darling to watch for so I’ll back the Cuse.
Purdue (ML) over North Texas; 7:25pm/Loyola Chicago (ML) over Georgia Tech; 4:00pm
Trevion Williams is a matchup nightmare for any team, let alone a team that plays at a slow pace and in the half court. North Texas may keep it close by limiting the number of possessions, but ultimately Purdue is just too much more talented, athletic and battle tested. I liked Loyola before Moses Wright went down. Against the number one defensive team in the country, Tech really could have used their number one scorer, averaging 17.4 ppg, 8 rebounds per game and 2.3 assists per game. Loyola is a top 10 team according to KenPom and they are for real.
North Carolina (-1.5) over Wisconsin; 7:10pm
I’m sorry, did you say Roy Williams is 29-0 in the first round? I mean yeah, most of those are as a top 3 seed, but Coach K can’t say the same. In fact, I will bet neither Duke nor North Carolina lose in the first round of this years tournament.
Good luck!
Jonny the Macedonian 