Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs 3:05PM
This game reeks! 9.5 is way too many points and the public is hammering the Browns today. Also, the Chiefs have not covered in 8 straight games, despite winning outright in 7 of those (exception to the Week 17 Chargers loss). They have struggled to beat teams at home like Carolina by 2, Denver by 6 and Atlanta by 3. This is a no brainer bet…so I’m going the other way. Give me the Chiefs minus the points!
Bet: KC -9.5
I’m also going to take the Under in this one as well. Winds are supposed to exceed 10 mph, which apparently they didn’t in Buffalo last night according to NBC’s weather team? What? The gameplan is simple for the Browns; slow down the clock, run the ball, and keep Mahomes on the sidelines. The Chiefs are 2-6 SU the last 8 games in which they had the ball for less than 25 minutes. While I don’t think the Browns will be able to do that, I think they will try.
Bet: Under 56.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints 6:40PM
I have to admit, this game is the hardest game to handicap. The Bucs are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS against Top 10 defenses and they only score 20 ppg. But it’s Brady. The old adage that it’s hard to beat a team 3 times in one season is a crock. There have been 21 instances where a team was going for a third win and the team that was 2-0 is 14-7, and when that team is playing at home, they are 12-5. But it’s Brady. The Bucs have looked so bad against the Saints and while they’ve been playing much better, they have only faced teams with losing records. Their defense might actually be getting worse. Look what Taylor Heinicke did to that pass defense? But still, it’s Brady. I think if it’s at 3, take the Bucs, but at 2.5, take the Saints? I’ll replace the spread pick with a prop bet. Mike Evans against Lattimore has been the receiver’s doom. Evans has 6 targets and 0 receptions that last 3 games when being guarded by Lattimore. “Better luck next year.”
Bet: Evans Under 63.5 Receiving Yards
I do know that points will be scored. The offensive weapons on both sides is remarkable. The Bucs throw Antonio Brown into this mix who hasn’t faced the Saints with his new team. The Saints scored 34 and 38 against this team this season and putting up 30+ shouldn’t be a problem. Brady now has AB and this offense is clicking at the right time. I don’t like the matchup for them, but they’re going to get their points.
Bet: Over 53
Jonny the Macedonian 