Bowling Green @ Miami (OH) (MIA -17.5, 49.5) 8 PM

The Falcons of Bowling Green come in to this matchup giving up 33.8 ppg which ranks 121st out of 130 qualified teams. However, they have faced one of the toughest schedules for an opposing defense. They have faced an offense that scores 29.1 ppg or more in 6 of their 9 games. In two of the three games they have not, they have played DII school Morgan State and 10.6 ppg Akron. Miami (OH) scores 22.7 ppg which ranks 10th out 12 MAC schools and will be the third easiest offense the Falcons have seen this season behind the aforementioned Morgan State and Akron. I think they will be able to keep this one in check and stay within the spread. Final Score Prediction: Bowling Green 20 Miami (OH) 34

Bet: BG +17.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Bowling Green 3 Miami (OH) 44

Northern Illinois @ Toledo (TOL -2.5, 53) 8 PM

The Glass Bowl has been friendly this season for the Rockets who are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS. Meanwhile, the Huskies are 1-5 SU and 3-3 ATS on the road. I think this should be a great game, but the trends favor the Rockets to become 6-0 at home when this one is all said and done. Final Score Prediction: Northern Illinois 24 Toledo 35

Bet: TOL -2.5
Confidence: 4 Units
Result: Northern Illinois 31 Toledo 28

Today’s Record: 0-2
All-Time Record: 7-11 (38.9%)

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Indiana Pacers (IND -2, 213) 7 PM

The Thunder have scored at least 112 (112.4 ppg) in 4 of their last 5 with the one being against the Magic for 102. They and have allowed at least 104 (109.6 ppg) in that same span and once again, the one being against the Magic for 94. 112+104 gets us over 213. What about the Pacer’s side? The Pacers have scored at least 108 (114 ppg) in 5 straight, and have allowed at least 109 ppg in their last 4 games. Not to mention, the over has hit in the last 4 Pacers games. Let’s try this again.

Bet: Over 213
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Thunder 85 Pacers 111

Atlanta Hawks @ Denver Nuggets (DEN -10, 210) 9 PM

The Nuggets have held their opponents to 100.3 ppg which ranks 4th in the league, and have held their last 4 opponents to 98 points or less (92.8 ppg). Meanwhile, the offense ranks 27th with 103.3 ppg in large part because they rank 26th in possessions per game. Both teams rank in the bottom half in effective field goal percentage with the Hawks ranked 22nd and the Nuggets ranks 28th. This will be a slow paced, tough it out kind of game.

Bet: Under 210
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Hawks 125 Nuggets 121

Portland Trailblazers @ Sacramento Kings (POR -1.5, 222) 10:10 PM

The Kings have won 3 of their last 4 after starting 0-5 and come home to play the Trailblazers who ended their 4 game losing streak by beating the Hawks in OT on Sunday. I kind of like the Kings to win this game, but I think there is more value on the over in this game. The Trailblazers have scored 115 or more in 4 of their last 5 (117.2 ppg). The Kings scored 98.6 ppg during their 5 game losing streak to begin the season, but have since figured something out, scoring 114 ppg in their last 4 games, all against top half of the leagues defenses (ranked 1st, 10th, 13th and 15th). The Trailblazers give up 114.6 ppg which ranks 23rd. Add in the fact the spread is close and overtime is a possibility, the over seems like a nice play.

Bet: Over 222
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Trailblazers 99 Kings 107

Today’s Record: 0-3
All-Time Record: 10-9

Eastern Michigan @ Akron (EMU -17, 46.5) 6 PM

MACtion is back, and this Tuesday we start the slate with the bottom two teams in conference. The Eagles come in losing 4 of 5, but find themselves as 17 point road favorite. That is because the Zips have lost 14 straight games dating back to last season with an average margin of defeat of 22.9 ppg. They have been outscored 131-9 in the last 4 games, have been held to 7 points or less in 6 of their 9 games including 2 shutouts in the last 3 weeks and have allowed at least 31 points in 7 of their 9 games. Eastern Michigan has struggled lately, but they did beat a good 6 win Illinois team 34-31 earlier in the season. Akron began their season with a 42-3 loss to the same Illini. Take the Eagles and feel good about it. Final Score Prediction: Eastern Michigan 31 Akron 6

Bet: EMU -17
Confidence: 4 Units
Result: Eastern Michigan 42 Akron 14

Western Michigan @ Ohio (WM -1, 62.5) 6:30 PM

The Broncos offense is starting to heat up scoring 37.3 ppg over their last 4 games, increasing their season ppg to 35.9 which ranks 16th in the country. Ohio’s defense allows 30 ppg which ranks 76th, but actually allow 36.5 ppg at home which ranks 119th. Western Michigan is 0-4 on the road this season, but those were against Michigan State, Syracuse, Toledo (5-0 at home this season) and Eastern Michigan (who scored with 36 seconds left to win). Meanwhile, Ohio is 2-2 at home this season (2 wins: vs Rhode Island 2-8 and Kent State 3-6; 2 losses: Northern Illinois 3-6 and Miami(OH) 5-4) Western Michigan is 6-4 and is the better team, home or away. Final Score Prediction; Western Michigan 38 Ohio 24

Bet: WMU -1
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Western Michigan 37 Ohio 34 OT

Today’s Record: 2-0
All-Time Record: 7-9

Creighton @ Michigan (MICH -5.5, 153.5)

Dating back to last season, the Wolverines have the 3rd ranked defense based on efficiency in the entire country. While their defense does not give up any easy buckets, don’t expect the Wolverines offense to either. In the same span, the Wolverines rank 307th in free throw attempts while the Bluejays ranks 28th in free throw attempts allowed. The last 5 Creighton games have gone under the total as well as their last 6 on the road. The total has gone under in 5 of Michigan’s last 7 games.

Bet: Under 153.5
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Creighton 69 Michigan 79

Missouri @ Xavier (XAV -5.5, 135.5) 7 PM
East Carolina @ App State (APPST -6, 141.5) 7 PM
Auburn @ South Alabama (AUB -7.5, 144.5) 8 PM

The Musketeers are 30-6 at home dating back to 2017 and I like them to get just enough stops to get another home win here. East Carolina has 11 new players on their team this year, including 6 transfers so I think their rebuild mode prevents them from getting an early, tough road win. Watch out for South Alabama’s Josh Ajayi who put up 30 on 10 for 14 shooting in their 75-69 win against Southern Mississippi on Saturday. Even if he were to replicate those numbers, which I think will be tough against a much more experienced and physical Auburn team, I still believe the Tigers are just too much for the Jaguars tonight.

Bet: XAV ML/APPST ML/AUB ML
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Missouri 58 Xaviers 63 OT, East Carolina 62 App State 68, Auburn 70 South Alabama 69

UT Arlington @ Nevada (NEV -5.5, 145.5) 10 PM

I don’t see the Mavericks being able to score much on the Wolfpack. Dating back to last season, the Mavericks are one of the worst teams in the country in effective field goal percentage that ranks 312th in the country. Meanwhile, the Wolfpack bring the 52nd ranked defense in effective field goal percentage allowed. Add in the Wolfpack are 59-6 at home since 2015, including 29-1 in the last 2 seasons, the home team should roll tonight.

Bet: NEV -5.5
Confidence: 4 Units
Result: UT Arlington 73 Nevada 80

Today’s Record: 3-0
All-Time Record: 9-1

Memphis Grizzlies @ San Antonio Spurs (SA -11, 223.5) 7:40 PM

Memphis gives up 120.1 points per game, 4th worst in the league. In fact, they just gave up 118 points to the Magic. As mentioned before, the Spurs are 4-0 against bottom half defenses and score 121 ppg in those contests. They also average 121 points per game in wins this season, and as 11 point favorites, it is likely they do so again tonight. Defensively, before the Celtics put up 135 on Saturday, the Spurs were allowing 107.2 ppg over their last 5. The Grizzlies have scored 134 and 137 in their two wins this season, but average only 101 ppg in their 7 losses, and as 11 point underdogs, it is likely they do so again tonight. On the road, the Grizzlies are 0-3 and lose by an average margin of 26.7 including losses by 19, 29 and 32.

Bet: SA -11
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Grizzlies 113 Spurs 109

Houston Rockets @ New Orleans Pelicans (HOU -6, 245) 8:10 PM

This is one the highest totals of the season, and for good reason. Offensively, the Rockets score 120.1 ppg (1st) and the Pelicans score 117.1 ppg (4th). Defensively, the Rockets allow 118.7 ppg (26th) and the Pelicans allow 122.4 ppg (30th). However, the Rockets have allowed only 102 ppg over their last 3 games while the Pelicans have scored only 112 ppg over their last 4 games. Harden and the Rockets will get theirs, but I think the Rockets defense is improving and can keep this high total down.

Bet: HOU ML/Under 245 Parlay
Confidence: 2 units
Result: Rockets 122 Pelicans 116

Toronto Raptors @ Los Angeles Clippers (LAC -9.5, 222.5) 10:40 PM

The Raptors defense is one of the best in the league, ranking 10th giving up 107.7 ppg. They are even better on the road, allowing only 103.8 ppg which ranks 5th in the league. Although the Clippers offense ranks 10th with 113.4 ppg, they score 110.3 at home compared to 119.7 on the road. Over the past 5 games, the Clippers have averaged 107 ppg, and only eclipsing 107 once during that span in a 129-124 loss to Milwaukee. In fact, if we take that game away, the Clipper’s defense has allowed 99.6 ppg over their last 5 games. I think this game stays close and low scoring. Consider taking TOR +9.5, but Kawhi’s revenge game scares me just enough.

Bet: Under 222.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Raptors 88 Clippers 98

Today’s Record: 2-1
All-Time Record: 10-6

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (SF -6, 47.5) 8:15 PM

Russell Wilson has 25 touchdowns to just 1 interception on the season, a big reason this team is 7-2. The defense, however, has not been good at all. They give up 380.8 yards per game and 25.6 points per game. Tonight, they get the undefeated Niners who run for 171.1 yards per game which ranks 2nd and 29.4 points per game which ranks 3rd. So do we bet on Russell Wilson or against this defense? Here’s a stat that matters. Russell Wilson has a passer rating of 110+ in nine straight road games, an NFL record. The Seahawks have won 10 of the last 11 games against their division rival. I know these teams are much different this season, but Russell Wilson being the constant, I’ll take my chances with the best player on the field.

Bet: SEA +6
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Seahawks 27 49ers 24 OT

Bonus Prop Bet:

Chris Carson has run for 90+ yards in 5 of 6 games, including 4 100+ yard games, and averaging 101 yards per game during that span. He’s averaging 19.4 carries per game, and 21.7 over his last 6 games. Meanwhile, the Niners defense has given up 81 yards to Adrian Peterson, 117 yards to Christian McCaffrey and 110 yards to Kenyan Drake over the past 3 games. Kwon Alexander played in each of those games, but is now out for the season. With the defense likely to give attention to Russell Wilson, I think Carson has an opportunity for another big game.

Bet: Chris Carson Over 78.5 rushing yards
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: 89 yards

Today’s Record: 2-0
All-Time Record: 4-3

Florida State @ Florida (FLA -5.5, 134.5) 1 PM

The Seminoles just lost to Pittsburgh 63-61 and now have to go in to Gainsville to play the 6th ranked team in the nation. The Seminoles dominated the Gators 81-60 to begin their season last year. Time for a little revenge.

Bet: FLA -5.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Florida State 63 Florida 51

Colgate @ Clemson (CLEM -8.5, 138) 3 PM
UC Santa Barbara @ UCLA (UCLA -5.5, 139) 7 PM
Illinois @ Arizona (ARI -7, 143) 9 PM

Parlay these home teams to beat up on less talented teams. All these are reasonable spreads which help bring down the odds on the moneylines.

Bet: CLEM ML/UCLA ML/ARI ML
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Colgate 68 Clemson 81
UCSB 61 UCLA 77
Illinois 69 Arizona 90

Today’s Record: 1-1
All-Time Record: 6-1

CASH LINEUP

QB- Jameis Winston $6800
He’s thrown for 300+ yards and multiple TDs in five of his last six games, and now gets the Cardinals defense which is giving up the 3rd most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season

RB- Aaron Jones $7400
Before last week, Jones had at least four receptions in five straight games and at least one touchdown in 7 of 8 games. We’ll count last week as a fluke. Expect Jones to get 100 and TD against a Panthers defense that gives up the 5th most fantasy points to opposing running backs,

RB- David Montgomery $5300
We’ll take volume AND salary relief with our second running back. He has seen 48 touches in the last 2 weeks and has a touchdown in 3 of his last 4 games. The Lions have given up a touchdown to a running back in every single game this season.

WR- Michael Thomas $8300
There is no sure thing in fantasy…….unless you are Michael Thomas. And it doesn’t matter who is quarterback. He’s seen double digit targets in all but two games, at least 8 catches in all but one game and at least 89 yards in all but one game. Now he gets the Falcons defense that gives up the 5th most fantasy points to wide receivers.

WR- Golden Tate $5900
Since entering the Giants lineup, Tate has seen 6 targets in every game, 6 receptions in four straight and 80 yards or more in 3 of 4. Evan Engram out gives him even more appeal. Now he gets a Jets secondary that gives up the 6th most fantasy points to wide receivers.

WR- Jamison Crowder $5000
With Darnold in at quarterback, Crowder averages 9 targets a game and 7 catches a game. The Giants secondary gives up the 3rd most fantasy points to wide receivers. Darnold has thrown 30+ passes in all five game’s he’s started.

TE- Mike Gesicki $3100
We’ll pay down a little at tight end and hope for a 4 for 50 kind of day from Gesicki. Last week, he saw career highs in receptions and yards with his 6 for 95 against the Jets. Now he faces up against the Colts that give up the 9th most fantasy points to tight ends.

FLEX- Devin Singletary $5000
Last week he took the torch from Frank Gore and saw 23 touches for 140 yards and a score against the Redskins. At any given time he can break off a 40 yard run and those chances increase today against the Browns who give up the 6th most fantasy points to running backs.

DEF- Buffalo Bills $2900
Baker Mayfield leads the league with 12 interceptions and the Browns 17 giveaways in 3rd most in the league. They also give up 2.9 sacks per game, 11th most in the league.

TOURNAMENT LINEUP

QB- Matt Ryan $6100
He’s thrown for over 300 yards in all but one game this season. He has 4 games of 3 or more touchdowns and has thrown 43 times or more in 4 games. With the Saints being big favorites, expect lots of passes from this offense.

RB- Alvin Kamara $8200
His ownership may be down a little bit coming off the injury, but I like Kamara in this spot against the Falcons. It has the highest total on the board with 51.5 and I think Kamara should be in line for a big day.

RB- David Johnson $5700
This is the cheapest he has been all season. He has 6 or more catches in 4 games this season, at least 18.5 fantasy points in 5 of 6 games he’s played in, and now plays the Bucs with a game total of 51, one of the highest on the board.

WR- Chris Godwin $ 7400
He has 4 games of 28 fantasy points or more. I think the Cardinals and Patrick Peterson will have a focus on stopping Mike Evans which should clear Godwin to have a big day.

WR- Davante Adams $6900
This might be Adams first game back fully healthy. He’s still Rodger’s number one guy and coming off a slow offensive week, Rodger will want to bounce back in a big way with his number one guy.

WR- Albert Wilson $3300
We’ll throw a dart here with Albert Wilson. With Preston Williams on IR, Albert Wilson should see an uptick in targets (6 in the last 3 weeks.) The Colts give up a lot underneath, so this could be a game where Wilson breaks out for 5 or 6 catches and maybe a touchdown

TE- Eric Ebron $3900
Ebron made it a point to go and talk to his coaches about his role in this offense. Good timing, too, because now he gets to face the Dolphins, and with TY Hilton sidelined, this could be a breakout spot.

FLEX- David Montgomery $5300
I especially like Montgomery today because Stafford is now out. The Bears need to get a running game established to give this offense some identity, and at this price, I think he’s a good value.

DEF- New York Giants $2800
Sam Darnold.

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears (CHI -7, 38) 1 PM

With Stafford now out and Trubisky a disaster of an NFL quarterback, I’m not thinking a lot of points in this one. The Lions will want to run the ball, and against the Bears defense that ranks 7th in the league, will cause a lot of problems for the Lions. In home games against teams not named the Saints, the Bears are allowing only 11 ppg. I’ll take my chances that the two worst quarterbacks playing today keep this total under 38. Final Score Prediction: Detroit 6 Chicago 20

Bet: Under 38
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Lions 13 Bears 20

Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland Browns (BUF +3, 41.5) 1 PM

I’m going to take the under in this one as well. Neither team scores more than 20 points per game (Buffalo 19.8 ranks 22nd, Cleveland 19.0 ranks 25th). Other than the Bills let down to the Eagles, the Bills defense allows only 13.4 ppg and unless the Browns offense has suddenly figured something out, I don’t see them figuring out against the Bills. The 31 points given up to Eagles was the only time all season the Bills defense gave up more than 21 points in a game. Final Score Prediction: Buffalo 19 Cleveland 16

Bet: Under 21.5 Cleveland team total
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Bills 16 Browns 19

New York Giants @ New York Jets (NYG -3, 44) 1 PM

This Jets team is a disaster. They have score more than 20 points once, have allowed at least 23 points 7 straight, and Adam Gase is still at the helm. The Giants on the other hand have been playing better football lately, despite the scoreboards reflecting that. The played the Patriots, Cowboys, and Lions to one possession games into the fourth quarters in three of the last four weeks. Any time I can only give up 3 points against the Jets who just lost to a team that was trying to lose, I’ll take it. Final Score Prediction: NY Giants 27 NY Jets 19

Bet: NYG -3
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Giants 27 Jets 34

Minnesota Vikings @ Dallas Cowboys (DAL -3, 48) 8:20 PM

Kirk Cousins in 5-28 against teams with a winning record and 7-13 in primetime games. We don’t like that. I’ll bet against Kirk Cousins in big games any chance that I can. Final Score Prediction: Minnesota 20 Dallas 31

Bet: DAL -3
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Vikings 28 Cowboys 24

Today’s Record: 2-2
All-Time Record: 2-3

Golden State Warriors @ Oklahoma City Thunder (OKC -12, 216.5) 8:10 PM

The Warriors have scored 110 or more points in 6 of their last games and now have DeAngelo Russell back. Meanwhile, after the Thunder held their first three oponents to 100 or less, they have allowed at least 100 in 4 of their last 5, with the Magic the only team not to reach that mark. The Thunder offense has score 112 or more in 4 of their last 6 while the Warriors defense has allowed at least 118 points in 7 of their 8 games. Even if we’re being conservative, give the Warriors 100 and the Thunder 118 minimum and we have already hit the over.

Bet: Over 216.5
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Warriors 108 Thunder 114

Boston Celtics @ San Antonio Spurs (SA -2, 218) 5:10 PM

Checkout how the Spurs play against good defense and bad defenses.
Against Bottom 15 Defenses: 4-0, 121 points per game, +7.75 Margin of Victory
Against Top 15 Defenses: 1-3, 103.5 points per game, -3 Margin of Victory
The Celtics rank 5th in total defense this season. I think a tough defense continues to give the Spurs trouble.

Bet: BOS +2
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Celtics 135 Spurs 115

Today’s Record: 2-0
All-Time Record: 8-5