My Top 5 Plays:

J. Thomas +1100

P. Cantlay +2200

D. Berger +4000

C. Conners +9000

J. Kokrak Top 20 +225

It’s Indy Madness. The First Four saw all four underdogs win outright. Get ready for a wild few weeks. Without further ado, here is a breakdown of the Madness to come.

Tournament breakdown

There is no such thing as a sure thing in March, I get that, but I will give you 4 games where I don’t see an upset coming (excluding top 3 seeds). You can moneyline parlay these for somewhere in the +200 – +250 range depending on which book you use.

4 Purdue > 13 North Texas
4 Florida State > 13 UNC Greensboro
8 Loyola-Chicago > 9 Georgia Tech
5 Colorado > 12 Georgetown

I will probably look back at those and laugh. But let’s get to some more fun. How about Top 3 seeds on upset alert (hello UMBC). When looking at these, I look at vulnerable, inexperienced teams with a weakness facing a well-rounded, sharp shooting team with the ability to get hot from deep.

15 Oral Roberts > 2 Ohio State
14 Alb-Christian > 3 Texas
13 Liberty > 4 Oklahoma State

I can also see 2 or more 1 and 2 seeds going down in the second round. Those matchups to lookout for:

7 Oregon > 2 Iowa
7 UConn > 2 Alabama
8 UNC > 1 Baylor
10 Virginia Tech > 2 Ohio State

Finally, when filling out your bracket, don’t forget, a double digit seed has made the sweet 16 in 33 of 35 years! Some teams in that arena that I like are 10 Virginia Tech, 11 Syracuse, and 13 Ohio. Also a fun trend, the number one overall team has lost in the first two rounds (4) more often than winning the championship (3). Are you on the Zags or no? Another trend to watch is a top 2 seed that was not ranked at the beginning of the year has NEVER made the Final Four. Unless Saban takes over, maybe fade Bama? And finally, when picking your champion, do you really want to ride with a conference that is both 0-7 SU and ATS in the last 7 National Championships they’ve played in. Sorry Big Ten!

Before I give some spread picks for the first round, I wanted to offer up my Final Four. We’re 2 years due for Madness, so don’t be surprised when we get a 7 Oregon, 7 UConn, 8 UNC and 8 Loyola Chicago Final Four, but I guess I’ll be a little more reserved with my picks.

WEST: 3 Kansas
EAST: 1 Michigan
SOUTH: 1 Baylor
MIDWEST: 2 Houston

Championship: 1 Baylor > 1 Michigan

In any bracket pool, I’m not picking Gonzaga because you have to differentiate to win. If you are in a bracket pool, the smarter plays to make runs and fade the public are Kansas, Michigan, Baylor and Houston. These are good teams with relatively easier paths than the more popular picks of Alabama or Illinois. And the popular 1 seeds are Gonzaga and Illinois, but Michigan and Baylor might be getting overlooked.

First Round – Friday

Texas Tech (-4) over Utah State; 1:45pm

This Utah State team beat San Diego State twice back in January which is why they are playing in this game today. But since those back to back wins, they have lost to Colorado State, UNLV and Boise State twice, not to mention falling to San Diego State in the conference title game. They are just 1-17 in their last 18 NCAA Tournament games while Chris Beard took his team to the championship game in 2019. Tournament experience alone, I’ll ride with the Red Raiders.

Syracuse (+3) over San Diego State; 9:40pm

Let’s keep fading the Mountain West. As favorites, the MWC is just 5-10 SU and 4-11 ATS since 2011. Syracuse isn’t the same zone powerhouse of years past, but they remain a tough matchup for anyone unfamiliar with the zone. The ACC is down this year, but as double digit seeds, ACC teams are on a 12-4-1 ATS run. Buddy Boehiem just sounds like a tournament darling to watch for so I’ll back the Cuse.

Purdue (ML) over North Texas; 7:25pm/Loyola Chicago (ML) over Georgia Tech; 4:00pm

Trevion Williams is a matchup nightmare for any team, let alone a team that plays at a slow pace and in the half court. North Texas may keep it close by limiting the number of possessions, but ultimately Purdue is just too much more talented, athletic and battle tested. I liked Loyola before Moses Wright went down. Against the number one defensive team in the country, Tech really could have used their number one scorer, averaging 17.4 ppg, 8 rebounds per game and 2.3 assists per game. Loyola is a top 10 team according to KenPom and they are for real.

North Carolina (-1.5) over Wisconsin; 7:10pm

I’m sorry, did you say Roy Williams is 29-0 in the first round? I mean yeah, most of those are as a top 3 seed, but Coach K can’t say the same. In fact, I will bet neither Duke nor North Carolina lose in the first round of this years tournament.

Good luck!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Green Bay Packers 3:05 PM

The Bucs leading receiver last weekend was Cameron Brate with 4 catches for 50 yards. Brady failed to reach 200 yards passing and the Bucs allowed just their 3^rd runningback to go over 65 yards rushing in a game. They still won by double digits. Maybe if the Saints had a tight end who could hold on to the ball, the Saints would be going to Lambeau today. Maybe if the Saints had a quarterback that could throw more than 5 yards down the field, Brady wouldn’t be playing in his 14^th conference title game. You know what the Bucs opponent this week doesn’t have? A turnover problem. The Packers rank #1 in giveaways and that’s how the Bucs defense excels. Against Top 10 teams in DVOA, the Packers have scored 32+ points in 5 of those 6 games. Yes, the one was a fluke against the Bucs back in week 6. The Packers play hungry, angry and motivated today. I like the Packers a lot but will still buy down to -3 for safe keeping.

Final Score Prediction: Buccaneers 20 Packers 34
Bet: GB -3

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs 6:40 PM

What a game this should be. Two of the best young quarterbacks in the league and I can’t wait. Last year we thought we would be seeing Lamar vs Mahomes for decades. That has quickly changed to Allen vs Mahomes for decades. The constant? Sir Patrick Mahomes. 24-1 in last 25 games. But how can you ignore what Josh Allen is doing? I don’t want to root against either and I want the score to be 100-99. The under probably worth a look but I took over 50 when the line first came out so I feel good about that. Instead my play will lean the Chiefs. I slightly favor an experienced Mahomes over Allen. The Bills could have been beat in either playoff game thus far, and the Chiefs may have won by 40+ if Mahomes never left last week. The Chiefs have led in 60 straight games, so if you do like the Bills, may want to wait until the Chiefs inevitably get the lead. The x factor for me is the Honeybadger himself. The Bills defense doesn’t have that kind of playmaker on that side of the ball, so I will gladly take the home team in what should be a hell of a good one.

Final Score Prediction: Bills 24 Chiefs 30
Bet: KC -3

Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs 3:05PM

This game reeks! 9.5 is way too many points and the public is hammering the Browns today. Also, the Chiefs have not covered in 8 straight games, despite winning outright in 7 of those (exception to the Week 17 Chargers loss). They have struggled to beat teams at home like Carolina by 2, Denver by 6 and Atlanta by 3. This is a no brainer bet…so I’m going the other way. Give me the Chiefs minus the points!

Bet: KC -9.5

I’m also going to take the Under in this one as well. Winds are supposed to exceed 10 mph, which apparently they didn’t in Buffalo last night according to NBC’s weather team? What? The gameplan is simple for the Browns; slow down the clock, run the ball, and keep Mahomes on the sidelines. The Chiefs are 2-6 SU the last 8 games in which they had the ball for less than 25 minutes. While I don’t think the Browns will be able to do that, I think they will try.

Bet: Under 56.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints 6:40PM

I have to admit, this game is the hardest game to handicap. The Bucs are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS against Top 10 defenses and they only score 20 ppg. But it’s Brady. The old adage that it’s hard to beat a team 3 times in one season is a crock. There have been 21 instances where a team was going for a third win and the team that was 2-0 is 14-7, and when that team is playing at home, they are 12-5. But it’s Brady. The Bucs have looked so bad against the Saints and while they’ve been playing much better, they have only faced teams with losing records. Their defense might actually be getting worse. Look what Taylor Heinicke did to that pass defense? But still, it’s Brady. I think if it’s at 3, take the Bucs, but at 2.5, take the Saints? I’ll replace the spread pick with a prop bet. Mike Evans against Lattimore has been the receiver’s doom. Evans has 6 targets and 0 receptions that last 3 games when being guarded by Lattimore. “Better luck next year.”

Bet: Evans Under 63.5 Receiving Yards

I do know that points will be scored. The offensive weapons on both sides is remarkable. The Bucs throw Antonio Brown into this mix who hasn’t faced the Saints with his new team. The Saints scored 34 and 38 against this team this season and putting up 30+ shouldn’t be a problem. Brady now has AB and this offense is clicking at the right time. I don’t like the matchup for them, but they’re going to get their points.

Bet: Over 53

It’s Divisional Weekend! Let’s get our bets in!
I have 4 plays for this Saturday Slate.

Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers 4:35PM
Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills 8:15PM

1. GB -6.5

Goff is not going to beat the Packers today. His favorite target, Cooper Kupp, is out and he barely has two hands to play with. Honestly, I think I would like the Rams more if they put Wolford out there. Goff was handing off balls with his off hand in last weeks win against the Seahawks. This Rams defense is phenomenal, no doubt. However, they rank 9^th in DVOA which isn’t the greatest defense of all time that they are getting credit for. They have faced the following quarterbacks since week 12: Nick Mullens, Kyler Murray, Cam Newton, Sam Darnold, Russell Wilson, and Chris Streveler. Let’s no forget the Packers drafted a quarterback in the first round to piss off Aaron Rodgers. You saw how the Packers blew out the Bears despite it being close for the majority of the game. I’ll take the Packers all day!

2. BAL +2.5

The Bills come in to this game ranked 4^th in yards per play. They air it out and get chunk yardage. It’s their identity. The Ravens rank 7^th in yards per play allowed, meaning they shortened the field and don’t give up homeruns. With a windy, potentially snowy game in Buffalo, the Bills may have to rely on their ground game which is bad news. Zack Moss is out this game so it’s up to Devin Singletary to lead the Bills rushing attack against the 7^th ranked rush defense in the league. Notable running quarterbacks against this Bills defense have played well (Newton 9 rushes, 54 yards; Murray 11 rushes, 61 yards; Tagovailoa 6 rushes, 28 yards). The Ravens have the number one rush offense in the league and the Bills defense is vulnerable. I got the Ravens at +3 earlier in the week and that has moved down. I like Baltimore to win outright, but we’ll take the points here.

3. GB -0.5/BAL +9

I’m confident about both these spreads, but why not tease them as well. Baltimore’s defense and running game will be sure to keep this game close, and no way Aaron Rodgers loses at home here. Tease em’ up!

4. BAL/BUF Under 49.5

Along with the Ravens, I like the Under in this game. The weather, the ground attacks, the limits on big plays: all contribute to this game trending toward the under.

Kind of hit or miss on Saturday. Underdogs went 3-0 ATS and the Over hit in all three games. What will Sunday bring us? Not sure, but I know I’ll be in front of the t.v. for another 10 hours!

Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans 1 PM

This Titans team is an all time bad entering the playoffs. Since 2006, they rank 183^rd out of 184 playoff teams in defensive efficiency. Since the merger in 1970, they enter the playoffs with the least sacks per game than any team in history! In games where Lamar was sacked once or zero times, the Ravens are 6-1. The one loss came in overtime to, you guessed it, the Titans.

I want to lean the Ravens here as the road team is 4-0 SU and ATS the last four times these teams have played. The Titans defense is trash. They rank 28^th in yards per game allowed and 32^nd on 3^rd down defense this season. But there’s a 6’3’’ 247 pound monster that gives me hesitation. He ran for 133 this year and 195 in last years playoff game. I do think the Raven’s 8^th ranked rush defense can contain him in this game, which might force Tannehill to air it out. In that case, I’m going with my old trusted bet in a Titans game. The Over is 12-3-1 this season for the Titans. Not only is the Over hitting, when it does, it goes over the total by an average of 12.7 points and 16.6 in the last 5.

Final Score Prediction: Ravens 34 Titans 26
Bet: Over 54

Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints 4:40 PM

Saints go back to full form this weekend as they get all their running backs and Michael Thomas coming back. The Bears lose Mooney which means it’s time for…Anthony Miller? The Saints have the #1 defense per DVOA in the league. Trubisky has only played twice this season against any team higher than 17 (both to the Packers, both loses). In fact in the 6 games where he played teams 20^th or lower, he was 5-1, threw 12 TDs to 4 INTs and threw for 238.8 yards per game. The Bears scored 30.7 ppg. In the 3 games facing a top 20 team in DVOA, he is 1-2, threw 4 TDs and 4 INTs and threw for 207.3 yards per game. The Bears scored 23.6 ppg. The answer might have to come from the backfield. Montgomery was able to put up 89 yards the first time these two met. The Saints do allow the 3^rd least rushing yards per game so it will not be easy. There are no stats here that say “Go with the Bears.” There are some trends though. The Saints are 2-9 ATS as a home favorite in the playoffs in their last 11 games while teams that do not have a winning record are now 8-1 ATS in the last 9 games in the playoffs after Washington’s cover last night. Underdogs are now 15-1 in the last 16 wildcard games. I don’t like it, but if Heinicke can cover against Brady, I’ll try my shot with Trubisky with this many points?

Final Score Prediction: Bears 22 Saints 29
Bet: CHI +10.5

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers 8:15 PM

Roethlisberger is 24-2-1 against the Browns. The Browns won’t have a head coach. Mason Rudolph almost beat them last week. The Browns cheered making the playoffs like they won the Super Bowl. Baker’s not that good. The Steelers beat them 38-7 in the first matchup between these two teams (with mostly healthy rosters). Shall I go on?

Final Score Prediction: Browns 13 Steelers 27
Bet: PIT -6

It’s Wildcard Weekend, and boy are we in for a WILD weekend! This weekend has some unbelieveable trends that are worth noting. The outright winner is 44-5-1 ATS in the last 50 wildcard games, so if you like an underdog, go with it outright. Speaking of underdogs, the underdog is on a 10-3-1 run in the NFC. As for totals, the Under is 44-27-1 (about 61%) in the last 72 wildcard games, including 10-2 the last 3 season and 4-0 last season. The 3-6 matchup is an under machine. Looking at you Rams-Seahawks and Browns-Steelers. The Under is an unbelievable 15-0-1 in the last 8 years in those matchups. Let’s roll with some picks for Saturday. Good luck all!

Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills 1PM

I was 15 years old as I watched Phillip Rivers leave the playoff game in the last game ever played in my beloved RCA Dome. Still, as Billy Volek marched down the field to eventually lead the Chargers to a win that would knock Peyton Manning and the Colts out of the playoffs, oof, Rivers stayed on the sidelines, chirping at our fans, vein popping out his head, pointing and ranting like a son of flubbin’ darn nabbin’ goober that he is. I said on that day, “I hate that guy more than Tom Brady.”

For the next 12 years that guy threw pick sixes, never made it to an AFC Championship, lost the city of San Diego, and got booted from the franchise. But all must be forgiven. Today, the Colts get their shot at the hottest team in the world right now. It feels like “you can’t touch this.” The Bills are on an 8-0 ATS run to end the season. They are only the fifth team to end on such a run, and the previous four all covered and won in their playoff game.

Jonathan Taylor is the real deal, I promise you. In his first 9 games, he ran for an average of 12.6 attempts per game for 3.8 yards per carry. But in his last 6 games, he has torched defenses and has ran for 19.8 attempts per game for 6.2 yards per carry. Keep the ball out of Josh Allen’s hands will probably be the game plan and against the Bills 17^th ranked run defense is the way to go about it. In the last 10 weeks, the Bills have allowed 7 running backs with at least 6 carries to run for over 6 yards per carry.

Bet: Taylor over 79.5 yards

Rivers is 4-0 SU in the wildcard round and has the experience to handle a game of this magnitude. He is 6-2 ATS as an underdog in the playoffs, and 4-0 ATS as an underdog of more than a touchdown. I get the Bills are on fire, but on their current 6 game winning streak, their only win came against the depleted Steelers team. The Colts have scored a first quarter touchdown in 7 straight games, while the Bills have scored just 10 first quarter points in the last 5 weeks. Colts jump out early, and hang on for dear life.

Final Score Prediction: Colts 27 Bills 24
Bet: IND +6.5

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks 4:40PM

The Rams offense is a mess right now. I don’t know who plays quarterback for them, but I’m not sure it matters. The Seahawks defense has allowed just 14 points per game over their final 6 games. The First half total for the Rams is 9.5 which I think is too high. Either Goff comes in and takes a while to get going or they have an AAF quarterback in there. The Seahawks have not allowed more than 7 points to be scored on them in the first half in 7 straight weeks in which they are only allowing an average of 4 first half points per game in that span.

Bet: Rams Under 9.5 First Half

Russell Wilson, that sneaky SOB, has been sacked by the Rams 11 times this season. This Rams defense causes problems for this offense that has struggled in recent weeks. The Under is 7-1 in the Seahawks last 8 games. The total stayed at 40 or under in 5 of those 8 games. The Under is 11-2 in the Rams last 13 games. The Under stayed under the total by 16 in their first matchup and 18.5 in their second matchup. I’d be surprised if this reached 30, let alone the 40s!

Final Score Prediction: Rams 13 Seahawks 16
Bet: Under 42.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Football Team 8:15PM

How will Brady handle his first spot as a wildcard? In primetime no less. This offense is on fire lately, but it has been against some terrible teams (Detroit, Minnesota, Atlanta). We’ve seen him struggle against some of the better defenses (Chicago, New Orleans, LA Rams, even the NY Giants). The Football Team’s pass defense ranks 2^nd in the league and is the type of defense that can cause Brady some trouble (which would be lovely).

Bet: Brady Under 292.5 Passing yards

I don’t like this matchup for the Bucs, but I am also not stupid enough to bet against Brady in the playoffs (though we saw what happened to him last year). I think the Football Team keeps this close, but the Bucs should still be able to outplay Football Team’s offense. I lean the under in this one, but instead I will use this game in one of my teasers for Sunday.

Final Score Prediction: Buccaneers 24 Football Team 16
Bet: TB -2.5/PIT -0 Teaser

HAPPY NEW YEAR! May your bets in 2021 be better than 2020. Here’s to hoping all your teams make the playoffs and these 3 Week 17 bets to cash in!

Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos 4:25 PM

The Raiders are the number one team to bet the Over, as it has cashed in at 11-3-1 this season. A big reason for that is that they allow 29.6 ppg which ranks 29^th in the league. That number has climbed in the last few weeks as they have allowed 34.3 ppg over their last 6 games overall. Denver’s defense has not performed all that well either, aside from holding the Chargers to 19 points last week. In their previous 8 games, they had allowed 31.7 ppg. Maybe the Broncos defense has turned it around, or maybe that was just a fluke. I’ll side with the points.

Final Score Prediction: Raiders 31 Broncos 24
Bet: Over 50

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers 4:25 PM

Turns out that Seahawks defense is pretty good. They have held their last 7 opponents to 15 ppg and the Under has cashed in all 7 games by an average margin of 12.6 ppg. The odds makers have yet to adjust the totals, and with Beathard in at quarterback for the Niners, I expect that Seahawks defense to show up once again and cash in on another Under.

Final Score Prediction: Seahawks 23 49ers 13
Bet: Under 46

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers 4:25 PM
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans 4:25 PM

I’m going right back to the Seahawks for my teaser this week. I just don’t see Beathard and the Niners pulling off the upset here with how well this defense has played. As much as I would love to see the Texans upset their rivals to knock them off the AFC South throne, I just don’t see that happening. Houston’s defense is awful. It ranks 31^st in rush yards allowed per game and dead last in yards per carry. King Henry feast day, until play action comes through and Tannehill gets to pass against the 26^th ranked pass defense despite being thrown on just 55% of the time, 7^th lowest in the league. The Texans have only beaten three teams this year: Jacksonville, New England and Detroit. Against all others they are 0-11 SU and 2-9 ATS.

Final Score Prediction: Titans 37 Texans 23
Bet: SEA -0.5/TEN -1

I hope you all had a wonderful Christmas, but the gifts haven’t stopped coming. Here are my 3 best plays for Week 16! Enjoy!

Chicago Bears @ Jacksonville Jaguars 1PM
Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets 1PM

Calling the Chicago Bears an offensive force is the most 2020 statement I could make, but it might actually be true. Matt Nagy owes David Montgomery a nice Christmas bonus for helping him save his job. He’s run for 434 yards and 5 scores in the last 4 weeks and is averaging over 6 yards a carry over that span. Now he gets the worst ranked rush defense in the league. Marquis Brown was 2 yards shy of 100 yards last week against this pass defense. If he would have gotten those two extra yards, it would have been the 9^th time in 10 weeks they have allowed a receiver to go over the century mark. Look for big days from both Montgomery and Robinson as the Bears route the Robinsonless Jags.

The Jets are coming off their first W of the year, while the Browns have been plagued by the COVID. Yet, the Browns are inching in on a playoff berth, maybe even a division title. Now that the Jets have won, what motivation do they have? Chubb, Hunt and few guys off the street are still better than this Jets team. The Browns aren’t losing this game

Final Score Predictions: Bears 34 Jaguars 17; Browns 26 Jets 16
Bet: Tease CHI -2/CLE -0.5

***Bonus: You may also want to look into taking the Over Bears team total of 27.5. The Bears are averaging 28.3 ppg with Trubisky, while the Jaguars have allowed 27 or more points in 12 of their last 13 games.

Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers 4:05PM

These defenses flat out suck. The Broncos have allowed 30 or more points in 6 of their last 9 games and are allowing 31.9 ppg in that span. The Chargers aren’t much better, allowing 27 or more points in 10 of their last 11 games. I know Denver’s offense isn’t that scary as it ranks 28^th in points per game, but the Chargers are allowing 29.2 ppg in their 5 games against the bottom 10 in the league in points per game (which includes allowing 31 to Denver the last time these two teams met). I hate these defenses, so I love the points.

Final Score Prediction: Broncos 27 Chargers 30
Bet: Over 47.5

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks 4:25PM

One team beat the Jets by 37, the other actually lost to that god awful team. So this should be an easy pick. Yep, I’m going with the road team that just lost to the Jets! Everyone is hyped about this Seahawks defense because they are allowing just 14.6 ppg in the last 5 games. However, these are the quarterbacks they have faced: Kyler Murray (was banged up), Carson Wentz (benched), Colt McCoy (Hah!), Sam Darnold (Gross) and Dwayne Haskins (more concerned with titties). The Rams are going to be ready for this one. Not 2 weeks ago people were calling this team a Super Bowl contender. The Rams are 8-3 SU and 8-2-1 ATS coming off a loss over their last 11 losses. The Seahawks offense has not looked good in months and I think they struggle again against this tough Rams D.

Final Score Prediction: Rams 31 Seahawks 23
Bet: LAR +1.5

Happy Bowl Season! Below you will find my analysis for every single bowl game over the next few days.
I wanted to get you the early bowl games as the numbers are being crunched for the later games. Enjoy!

MONDAY, DEC 21

Appalachian St (-21) vs North Texas 2:30PM

The Mountaineers had a disappointing season, going 8-3 SU and just 2-9 ATS. Their 3 losses came against some good opponents who’s combined record is 27-3. Now they get a 4-5 North Texas team who gives up over 500 yards and 42.6 points per game! App State has some key advantages in this game. They rank 8^th on 3^rd down offense while North Texas ranks 111^th on 3^rd down defense. App State ranks 12^th in rushing offense and North Texas ranks 124^th in rushing defense.

The Mountaineers defense is no joke either. They allow 17.1 ppg in their 8 wins this season. While North Texas scores 32.4 ppg this season, their toughest defense faced according to defensive efficiency was Rice, who ranks 59^th. They scored 27 points in that game. Now, they get App State who ranks 17^th in DVOA. Oh, and their top playmaker, Jaelon Darden, is opting out of this game. He had 1,190 yards receiving and 12 TDs in 5 games this season. I like App State to score and I don’t like North Texas to score. I guess I’ll lay the 21?

Final Score Prediction: App State 45 North Texas 17
Bet: App St -21
Confidence: 3

TUESDAY, DEC 22

Tulane (-2.5) vs Nevada 3:30PM

The Green Wave is what you would be hitting if you have been betting on Tulane the last 7 weeks. They are 6-1 ATS over that span. They are also 5-0 SU and ATS in their last 5 as a favorite. However, I am not so sure they should be favored here. The Wolf Pack come in with the 11^th ranked passing offense in the country while Tulane has the 115^th ranked passing defense. Against Top 35 passing offenses this year, Tulane is 1-3 SU and are allowing 39.5 points per game.

Tulane’s 3^rd down offense is cause for concern, as they rank 101^st in that category. Meanwhile, Nevada gets teams off the field 65% of the time on that crucial down, which ranks 25^th. Yet, Tulane has scored 30+ points in 8 of their last 9 games. Tulane’s ATS streak gives me hesitancy on taking the Wolf Pack, though I tend to lean that way. Instead, I’ll take the Over as I see both these teams getting into the 30’s.

Final Score Prediction: Tulane 34 Nevada 37
Bet: Over 56.5
Confidence: 5

Update: There may be some weather issues this evening. Mid to low 30s with 35-40 mph wind gusts. The Green Machine will also be missing 3of their defensive starters. I will be switching to NEV +2.5 in this game instead.

Bet: NEV +2.5
Confidence: 2

UCF vs BYU (-6.5) 7PM

Both these teams rank in the top 20 in the country in yards per game, pass yards per game and 3^rd down offense. They are also both in the top 50 in rush yards per game. We know these offenses are electric, but what about the defenses? BYU comes in with the #5 defense in yards allowed per game, #3 in redzone defense, 15^th in pass defense and 18^th in rush defense. UCF’s defense, not so much. They rank 114^th in yards per game, 100^th in redzone defense, 117^th in pass defense and 87^th in rush defense.

UCF may have a slight advantage on offense, but the defense in a game with a total of 74.5 may be the difference. I’ll lay the points with the Cougars.

Final Score Prediction: UCF 31 BYU 41
Bet: BYU -6.5
Confidence: 1

WEDNESDAY, DEC 23

Louisiana Tech vs Georgia Southern (-5.5) 3PM

The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are NOT in the top 100 in either offensive efficiency (102) or defensive efficiency (114). That might be a problem tonight against a solid Georgia Southern team. The Bulldogs offense is terrible and face a tough matchup here. They rank 123^rd in rushing, going up against the Eagles 15^th ranked rush defense. They aren’t much better through the air, ranking 82^nd.

Meanwhile, the Eagles bring the 7^th ranked rushing offense (3^rd in rush attempts per game) and will face the Bulldogs 93^rd ranked rush defense. If the Eagles can jump out to a lead and get their ground game going, it will be hard for this Bulldogs offense to get anything going. The Eagles have scored 30 points or less in 7 of their last 8 games. I think the run games and defenses dominate this game, so I will grab the Under.

Final Score Prediction: Louisiana Tech 17 Georgia Southern 24
Bet: Under 48.5
Confidence: 1

Memphis (-8) vs FAU 7PM

This is an intriguing matchup between the Tiger’s 9^th ranked passing offense against the Owl’s 14^th ranked passing defense. If Brady White, the Tigers starting quarterback, can break through this defense, the Owls will have a tough time keeping up with the Tiger’s pace. FAU’s offense ranks 111^th in yards per game and 117^th in passing yards per game. They finished the season 1-4 ATS and lost their last two games of the season by double digits despite being favored in both games. I’ll lay the points with the better offense.

Final Score Prediction: Memphis 31 FAU 17
Bet: Memphis -8
Confidence: 2

THURSDAY, DEC 24

Hawaii @ Houston (-13) 3:30PM

This game will be played in Frisco, Texas, just outside of Dallas. I am not suggesting the Cougar faithful will make much of a difference in Covid World, because there’s no such thing as home field advantage, however, this game kicks off at 10:30 Hawaii time. Since October 30^th, the Rainbow Warriors have only played outside of the state of Hawaii twice. They lost both games by 24, including a loss to Wyoming as a 2.5 point favorite.

Houston likes to play in blowout games with 6 of their 7 games being decided by 16 points or more. They are 3-3 SU in those games. They are 3-1 SU and ATS as a favorite this season. I think Houston’s offense is too much in this one, so I’ll take the Cougars.

Final Score Prediction: Hawaii 21 Houston 38
Bet: Houston -13
Confidence: 1

FRIDAY, DEC 25

Marshall vs Buffalo (-3.5) 2:30PM

These teams had disappointing results to end their seasons. Buffalo lost outright as a double digit favorite in the MAC Championship to Ball State, while Marshall dropped their final two games despite being heavy favorites. Both offenses struggled in those games. The Bulls averaged 51.8 ppg entering the MAC Championship and only put up 28. Meanwhile, Marshall scored 37.4 ppg in their first 7 games, and only 13 points combined over their final two games.

Nonetheless, this Marshall rush defense is the equivalent of Buffalo’s rush offense. They allow just 2.7 yards per carry and only 89.2 rush yards per game, both in the top 3 in the country. The Thundering Herd has not allowed more than 22 points in any of their 9 games this season.

I want to take the Under based on these statistics, but I’ll take Patterson’s 7.6 yards per carry, 1,000+ yards and 19 TDs in 5 games.

Final Score Prediction: Marshall 20 Buffalo 31
Bet: Buffalo -3.5
Confidence: 3

SATURDAY, DEC 26

Louisiana-Lafayette (-14) vs UTSA 3:30PM

The Ragin’ Cajuns lone loss came against Coastal Carolina by 3. Since that loss, they are 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS and have won by an average of 16 ppg. They should have no problem with UTSA who have yet to beat a team with a strength of record better than 100^th (0-4). However, both these defenses have been playing very well lately. Ragin’ Cajuns have allowed 21 points or less in 6 of their last 8 and the Under is 6-2 in those games. Meanwhile, UTSA has allowed 23 ppg over their last 8 games and the Under is 7-1 in those games. With the Under cashing in 13 of the last 16 games combined for these two teams, I’ll ride that trend with a total in the high 50s.

Final Score Prediction: Louisiana-Lafayette 34 UTSA 17
Bet: Under 57.5
Confidence: 3

Western Kentucky vs Georgia State (-4) 3:30PM

Well this is a tough one because both teams teams have been showing out differently in their last few matchups. Georgia State’s defense allowed 40.2 ppg over their first 6 games, and have allowed just 18.3 ppg in their last 3 games. Western Kentucky has been one of the worst offenses in college football, ranking 121^st in yards per game, and only scoring 14.7 ppg over their first 9 games. Yet, in their last 2 games, they have scored 37 and 38 points.

Georgia State has scored 30+ in 7 of their 9 games and the Over has cashed in 6 of those 9 games. I think the Hilltoppers do just enough to push this total over with the way their offense has been playing that last 2 weeks.

Final Score Prediction: Western Kentucky 24 Georgia State 30
Bet: Over 51.5
Confidence: 1

Liberty vs Coastal Carolina (-7) 7:30PM

Coastal Carolina has been getting a lot of hype lately, but I think people have forgotten about this Liberty team. They are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS this season with their only loss coming by 1 point at NC State. They are 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season and now get a Coastal Carolina team that had its sights much higher than the FBC Mortgage Cure Bowl despite going 8-0 and beating the team that the #10 team lost to at home by 17. Liberty scored 41 points per game in their 8 wins this season. Between an offense that keeps up, and a defense that ranks in the top 10 nationally in yards per game allowed, 3^rd down defense and pass yards per game allowed, I think they can keep this game within a touchdown. I also like the Under in this game as both these defenses rank in the top 25.

Final Score Prediction: Liberty 26 Coastal Carolina 29
Bet: Liberty +7 & Under 59.5
Confidence: 2/1

TUESDAY, DEC 29

Oklahoma State vs Miami (-1) 5:30PM

These two teams finished their regular seasons in two completely different ways. The Cowboys blew out the Baylor Bears 42-3 on their way to a 7-3 season. It was the first time they had covered the spread in 6 games. The Hurricanes finished their season by allowing 62 to the Tar Heels in a 36 point loss at home in what was just their second loss of the season.

The Hurricanes just allowed 62 points and rank 82^nd against the rush and 62^nd against the pass, and that’s against some weak opponents. The Cowboys should be able to put up some points in this one. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are only allowing 22.4 points per game this season. However, against three opponents who rank inside the top 20 in offensive efficiency, they allow 34.3 ppg. Miami ranks 19^th in that category. I like some back and forth in this game and I think it could get deep into the 30s or even higher, so I’ll take the Over.

Final Score Prediction: Oklahoma State 34 Miami 35
Bet: Over 61.5
Confidence: 1

Texas (-7.5) vs Colorado 9PM

I will fade the Big 12 here as they were just 1-5 SU in bowl games last season and 0-3 vs the Sun Belt this season. The Buffaloes have looked pretty good this year, going 4-1 SU and ATS with their lone loss coming against Utah in snowy conditions. This game will be played in a dome and this offense will be able to do what it wants. The Longhorns are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 as a favorite. They will be missing 5 team captains who have chosen to opt out of this game. I like the Buffaloes outright, but a free touchdown is not so bad either.

Final Score Prediction: Texas 31 Colorado 34
Bet: Colorado +7.5
Confidence: 2

WEDNESDAY, DEC 30

Wake Forest vs Wisconsin (-10) 12PM

The Demon Deacons have only played twice since Halloween and the rust showed. They allowed 45 and 59 in their last two games. Before that, and excluding Trevor Lawrence, they allowed 22.4 ppg in their previous 5 games. Wisconsin has allowed just 10 ppg in their last 4 games and is one of the best in the country. They are #1 in yards per game allowed, #1 in 3^rd down defense, #3 against the run and #5 against the pass. They would have lived up to their top 10 preseason ranking if they had any offense. The under looks like the play in this one.

Final Score Prediction: Wake Forest 17 Wisconsin 30
Bet: Under 51.5
Confidence: 3

Florida vs Oklahoma (-6.5) 8PM

The Gators top 4 pass catchers have opted out of this game, a big reason why this line has shifted from Florida giving 3 to getting 6.5. I liked the Sooners defense before the opt outs and even more so now. They have allowed just 16.5 ppg in their last 6 games. You know who’s defense isn’t good? The Gators. They’ve allowed 33.8 ppg in their last 5 games against teams without female kickers (Vanderbilt’s terrible). I don’t understand why Trask is even playing in this game, and I doubt he even finishes this game. The Gators could care less, so why would anyone back them? I like the Sooners in a route.

Final Score Prediction: Florida 23 Oklahoma 47
Bet: Oklahoma -6.5
Confidence: 3

THURSDAY, DEC 31

Tulsa (-1.5) vs Mississippi State 12PM

A non-power 5 team is favored against an SEC team in a bowl game. Prime 2020 right here. That’s what you get when you have a 3 win team make a bowl game. Tulsa only has two losses on the season; a 9 point loss to Oklahoma State to begin their season, and a 3 point loss to Cincinnati to finish their season. They were 7-1 ATS on the season, one of the best ATS teams in all of college football. The Bulldogs had a much more disappointing season finishing 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS. They did, however, finish the season 3-1 ATS. When you think of the Bulldogs, think the opposite style of Army. They are #1 in the country is pass play percentage and dead last in rush play percentage.

Both these defenses have some strengths. Tulsa ranks 21^st in yards per game allowed, 15^th on 3^rd down defense and 20^th in red zone defense. Against a Mississippi State team that passes nearly every down, Tulsa ranks 20^th in pass defense. While Mississippi State ranks 46^th in yards per game, they rank 20^th against the run. However, their schedule in the SEC has not helped them one bit. They’ve played 4 of the top 18 teams in offensive efficiency. Tulsa ranks 79^th and should be a much easier offense to manage. I’ll side with the Under in hopes both these offenses struggle it out.

Final Score Prediction: Tulsa 23 Mississippi State 20
Bet: Under 46.5
Confidence: 1

Ball State vs San Jose State (-9.5) 2PM

The Cardinals have won 6 in a row and covered 4 straight, including 3 covers and straight up wins as an underdog. Will they be able to continue this streak against the Trojans. The Trojans are on quite a streak as well. They are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS on the season, winning every game by double digits. The Under is 4-1 in Ball State’s last 5 games, while the Under is 6-1 for the Trojans overall.

While Ball State has scored 30+ in 6 of their 7 games this season, they haven’t played a San Jose State type defense that has allowed 24 points or less in all 7 games this season. Ball State’s defense has bent for weeks now, allowing 24.8 ppg over the last 5 weeks, but again, San Jose State brings in the best passing offense they have seen all season which ranks 20^th in the country. The Cardinal’s 118^th ranked pass defense will struggle and the Trojans will win big.

Final Score Prediction: Ball State 24 San Jose State 41
Bet: San Jose State -9.5
Confidence: 2

West Virginia vs Army 4PM

Initially, West Virginia was set to play Tennessee while 9-2 Army wasn’t invited to any bowls. But the COVID Gods struck the Volunteers and now Army will get their chance. West Virginia lost 3 of their last 5 games, including being beat down by Iowa State 42-6 in their final game. They only played 3 games all season against teams with a winning record in which they went 1-3. They were 4-1 against teams with losing records. Army finished 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS.

Army runs the ball more than any other team in the country and rank 5^th in rush yards per game. The Mountaineers defensive strength is their pass defense which ranks 8^th, but their rush defense isn’t too bad either, ranking 32^nd in rush yards allowed per game. West Virginia ranks 105^th in rushing yards per game on offense, so look for them to throw it, as they rank 29^th in passing yards per game. However, Army has the #1 pass defense in the country. Army ranks 2^nd is yards allowed per game while the Mountaineers rank 6^th. The Under is 6-2 when Army faces an FBS team while West Virginia allowed 21 or less in 6 of their 9 games with Under cashing 5 of their last 8 games overall. All signs point to a low scoring game, so that’s what I’ll go with here.

Final Score Prediction: West Virginia 19 Army 20
Bet: Under 41.5
Confidence: 1

FRIDAY, JAN 1

Georgia vs Cincinnati 12PM

The Bearcats have a lot to prove, as many teams that have been hosed by the system in the past can relate. Let’s go back and see how these teams have played. 2007, Boise State beats Oklahoma in one of the best college football game in history as a 7 point underdog. TCU dropped out of the playoffs in 2014 despite winning 55-3 in their final game. They went on to win 42-3 as a 3 point favorite in the Peach Bowl against SEC Ole Miss. Finally, UCF won the “Championship” in 2017 after an undefeated regular season and being left out of the playoff. They went on to win their bowl against SEC Auburn by 7 as a 9.5 underdog.

Cincinnati will be announced “National Champions” just before the actual playoff begins because they will beat Georgia. Georgia is 1-2 SU and ATS against teams with winning records. Their best win is against a depleted Auburn team and they lost to Alabama and Florida by a combined 35 points. The Bearcats are motivated and ready to prove they should have been included in the playoff, even though the committee will never put them in. Take the points and shove it where the committee don’t shine.

Final Score Prediction: Georgia 17 Cincinnati 41
Bet: Cincinnati +6.5…go ahead and sprinkle some money on the moneyline as well.
Confidence: 4

Auburn vs Northwestern 1PM

We saw what Northwestern did to a great Ohio State offense, and if they would have been able to stop the run, they may have a Big Ten Championship. Auburn only ranks 58^th in rush offense and have only scored 19 ppg in their last 3 games. Aside from the matchup disadvantage, let’s look at the coaching matchup. Auburn’s head coach is still moving from Boise, while the coaches on the field prepare for what is likely their last game with the program. Pat Fitzgerald is on a throne in Chicago, and the only way he rents a Uhaul is if he gets shipped to the NFL with $$ in his eyes. Give me the Wildcats.

Final Score Prediction: Auburn 17 Northwestern 24
Bet: Northwestern -3.5
Confidence: 1

Notre Dame vs Alabama 4PM

Bama is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 as a 20+ point favorite, while Notre Dame couldn’t do anything against Clemson’s defense and couldn’t stop Trevor Lawrence. Now they get an offense that had 3 of the top 5 Heisman finalists. I always want to take the Irish in these games with the spread this high, but I won’t wake up the next morning with a losing Irish ticket. That’s just embarrassing. I’ll go with the best team in the country against the team that can never show up for this game.

Final Score Prediction: Notre Dame 20 Alabama 49
Bet: Alabama -20

Ohio State vs Clemson 8PM

As an Underdog, Ohio State is 8-1 SU in their last 9 games. Their one straight up loss was last season against Clemson, in which they looked like the better team. Ohio State has not looked their best this season, there’s no doubt. But, if this well rested, hungry to prove Buckeyes squad can put it together, they may actually get to be beaten down by Alabama after all. 9 of 12 semi final games have been decided by double digits. Of the 3 that have been decided by single digits, Ohio State was involved in 2 of those, including last season vs Clemson. I’ll take a few points and go with the Buckeyes. Ugh.

Final Score Prediction: Ohio State 31 Clemson 34
Bet: Ohio State +7.5
Confidence: 1

SATURDAY, JAN 2

North Carolina State vs Kentucky 12PM

The Wildcats lost 4 of their last 6 (which is better than their basketball team can say, but still not very good.) Their two wins were a 3 point win against an awful Vanderbilt team and a 23 point win against a just-as-bad South Carolina team. They have lost their last 4 games by an average of 26.3 ppg. They scored just 6.5 ppg in those 4 losses. The Wolfpack’s three losses came against some offensive power houses in which they allowed 45.7 ppg in those losses. In their 8 wins, they allowed 23.8 ppg. They have scored 30+ in 6 of their last 9 games and that should be plenty enough to win and cover against the Wildcats.

Final Score Prediction: North Carolina State 30 Kentucky 22
Bet: North Carolina State +2
Confidence: 3

Ole Miss vs Indiana 12:30PM

Fresno State and Indiana are the only teams undefeated ATS as the Hoosier have covered in all 7 games this season. The Rebels lost 4 of their first 5, but have won 3 of 4 to finish the season. Lane Kiffin’s offense has scored 48 ppg in those final 4 games. In fact, they scored 31 or more in 7 of their 9 games, including putting up 48 on the #1 team in the country. IU’s defense has been solid this year, however, their pass defense, which ranks 60^th, now goes up against the toughest pass offense they will play all season, which ranks 7^th. On the other side of the ball, the Rebel’s defense is absolutely terrible. They have allowed 33 or more points in 7 of their 9 games, allowing over 40 points 5 times, and they are allowing 40.3 ppg on the season which ranks 121^st out of 127. IU’s receivers are good enough for a few long touchdowns while you know Kiffin will draw up some wild things to get his guys in the endzone. Expect lots of scoring in this one.

Final Score Prediction: Ole Miss 34 Indiana 41
Bet: Over 65
Confidence: 2

Oregon vs Iowa State 4PM

The Ducks lost to Cal less than a month ago by 4. Iowa State’s favored by 4. The Ducks are not a good team this year, and backing their way into the PAC12 title game and beating a not that good USC team got them here, but that’s it. Cristobal is an awful coach, just look what he did to Justin Herbert. I’m not big on the Cyclones this year, but they are by far better than any PAC12 dumpster fire.

Final Score Prediction: Oregon 24 Iowa State 37
Bet: Iowa State -4
Confidence: 2

Texas A&M vs North Carolina 8PM

When the bowl schedule came out, this was one that I circled right away. But then 2020 strikes again and half the UNC offense decided to opt out. The leading rusher for the Tar Heels in this game is quarterback Sam Howell with 121 yards. Texas A&M’s defense allowed just 3.3 yards per carry on the season and just 92.2 yards per game which ranks 2^nd in the country. The Aggies pass defense ranks 55^th, but will not have to go against the Tar Heels top pass catcher, Dyami Brown, who just had his second consecutive 1,000 yard season. This was going to be close with both teams at full strength, but I can’t back the Tar Heels with so many playmakers missing. Therefore, I like both Texas A&M and the Under in this game. The Under is 4-0 when the Tar Heels fail to reach 40 points. The Aggies defense has allowed 14.3 ppg to anyone not invited to the Heisman ceremony.

Final Score Prediction: Texas A&M 34 North Carolina 23
Bet: Texas A&M -7/Under 65.5
Confidence: 1/2

Bowl Record: 15-11-1 (+13 Units)