Merry Christmas to everyone! Here are some free plays for your stocking! Enjoy!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons 1 PM

The Falcons have held teams to just 19.2 ppg over their last 6 games. This has helped the Under cash in 4 of their last 5 home games and 8 of their last 10 games overall. They have done so by holding opposing quarterbacks to under 250 yards in 5 of their last 6 despite still being the 30^th ranked defense against the pass. Shows how bad Dan Quinn really was. Matt Ryan has not been great lately on the offensive side of the ball and the Bucs should get pressure to keep this low scoring.

Final Score Prediction: Buccaneers 24 Falcons 19
Bet: Under 49.5

Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Football Team 1 PM

My notes say “Seahawks expose the Football Team.” I’m a little hesitant because it’s a west coast team playing on the east coast at 10AM PST. But it’s Dwayne Haskins vs Russell Wilson so I will make the exception. Alex Smith was good enough to play into the strengths of this team, but I’m not trusting Haskins here. Antonio Gibson is also set to miss this game. The Football Team has allowed just 14.3 ppg on their current 4 game winning streak, however, the quarterbacks they have played are Burrow/Finley, Dalton, Roethlisberger (still threw for 300+ yards), and Mullens. Wilson is mobile and dangerous. The Lions scored 30 on this team last month. I like the Hawks here.

Final Score Prediction: Seahawks 30 Football Team 17
Bet: SEA -6.5

*** Bonus Prop Bet

Another reason why I like the Seahawks this week is because their defense is playing so well. They have allowed 1 running back to go over 40 yards in the last 7 weeks, which puts the weight on Haskin’s shoulders. With Gibson out, McKissic is the starting running back, though I think Peyton Barber, who has seen 37 carries in the last 3 weeks, gets the bulk of the carries. McKissic will get his receiving yards, but not his rushing yards.

Bet: McKissic Under 36.5 Rushing Yards

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts 1 PM
Detroit Lions @ Tennessee Titans 1 PM

How about a good ol’ fashion AFC South teaser. The Colts are 29-9 all time vs the Texans and have won 4 of the last 5 meetings. Plus, the Texans don’t have any receivers left. Colts stop Brandon Cooks, the Texans don’t have anything left. Colts win this one at home. The Titans are licking their chops right now. The Lions are 29^th against the run. Derick Henry needs 468 yards to get to 2,000 and he might just get that today. Stafford is banged up, but he will play (Now that he’s in, I like the Over again today). Titans win big as King Henry goes off.

Final Score Prediction: Texans 20 Colts 31; Lions 20 Titans 41
Bet: IND -1/TEN -3

Expect some points this week! I have 3 over plays for you this week and a few TD props. Good luck folks!

Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars 1 PM

Over machine Tannehill back on the slate today, and will probably be on every slate going forward. The Over is now 19-2-1 when he starts for the Titans. The Over is 9-1-1 in the Titans last 11 games this season. The first meeting between these two ended 33-30 and I expect the same kind of fireworks here. The Jaguars have allowed a receiver to have 100+ yards and a TD in 8 straight games, so might want to look at over props for AJ Brown today who was out in that week 2 matchup.

Final Score Prediction: Titans 40 Jaguars 24
Bet: Over 52

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions 4:25 PM

Packers can’t stop the run. No one can stop Devante Adams. Both these defenses suck. Recipe for points. The Over is 4-2 in Packers road games while the Over is 5-0 in Detroit home games. The Packers average 33.7 ppg against teams with losing records, scoring 30+ in 6 of 7. The Lions have allowed 30+ in 4 of their last 6 games, and in 3 games where they played a team with a winning record this season, they have allowed 39.3 ppg, including allowing 42 to the Packers in their first matchup.

Final Score Prediction: Packers 41 Lions 24
Bet: Over 54.5

BONUS PROP BET** Aaron Jones 2+ TDs

The Lions have allowed 20 TDs to running backs in the last 9 weeks. In 7 of those games, they have scored at least 2 touchdowns. 3 of the 9, they scored 3 touchdowns. Packers are going to score 4 or 5 touchdowns today and you know Adams will have 1 or 2, which leaves room for Jones to get back into the endzone against this awful defense.

Indianapolis Colts @ Las Vegas Raiders 4:05 PM

Disclaimer, I thought about including a teaser of KC -1/TB -1 on the slate today, but not at the trends and stats fully support that, plus the trends that do, aren’t very fun, and I am a man of the people, here to provide some wonky stats for you. The over is 7-0 in the last 7 times the Colts have traveled over 1,000 miles. Now that’s funky. Furthermore, the Over is 6-2 in the last 8 Colts games, and 4-1 the last 5 Vegas home games. This is also why I like the Colts -3 in this game, because while I think this game goes over, the Colts defense is much better than the Raiders.

Final Score Prediction: Colts 37 Raiders 23
Bet: Over 52

That was sad to type the header. That means there are only 4 more weeks of regular season football. That’s ok, we still got the playoffs where Phillip Rivers will choke, the Packers defense will let down Aaron Rodgers and the Bears will be hibernating. Without further ado, here are my Week 13 bets!

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans 1 PM

The Texans will be without their top offensive playmaker and the Colts are getting their top defensive playmaker back. The Colts are 4-1 ATS against teams currently with a losing record while the Texans are 1-5 ATS against teams with winning records. This spreads too low, take the Colts.

Final Score Prediction: Colts 31 Texans 20
Bet: IND -3

Bonus Prop Bet: On BetMGM you can get Over 50 rushing yards for Jonathan Taylor. Here are runningbacks who have run for 50 yards in the last 5 weeks vs this defense: Derrick Henry and Jeremy McNichols (Same game), Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt (Both over 100 in the same game), Jamaal Williams, James Robinson and Adrian Pederson. Kerryon Johnson was 4 yards short in the same game. JT had 22 carries last week and now plays a defense that allows 4.9 yards per rush. Oh, and Phillip Rivers only has 9 toes.

Bet: Jonathan Taylor Over 50 Rushing Yards

Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans 1 PM

The Over is 18-2-1 in Tannehill’s starts in Tennessee. That’s bonkers. The Over is 3-1 in the Browns last 4 road games. Some supporting numbers for you: both teams rank in the top 10 in redzone scoring percentage (TEN: 5^th CLE: 7^th). Both rank in the bottom half of the league in points per game allowed (TEN: 20^th CLE: 21^st). The Titans are dead last on 3^rd down defense and the Browns are dead last on 4^th down defense. Up and down the field all day. Big day for AJ Brown. Take the Over.

Final Score Prediction: Browns 24 Titans 35
Bet: Over 53

Las Vegas Raiders @ New York Jets 1 PM
Philadelphia Eagles @ Green Bay Packers 4:25 PM

The Jets are 0-11 and have lost every game by 3 or more. They’re 3-8 ATS but 1-8 ATS when Darnold starts. If Flacco was starting, I might…no, god no, it’s the Jets. The Packers are 3-1 ATS as a favorite of 6 or more and are 4-0 SU. Eagles are trash.

Final Score Prediction: Raiders 34 Jets 13; Eagles 22 Packers 30
Bet: Tease LV -2/GB -2

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! I’m thankful for all of you, thankful sports are on and thankful for the millions of dollars we’ll be cashing out after hitting these bets today. Have a great, safe and winning Thanksgiving! 

Houston Texans @ Detroit Lions 12:30 PM

Patricia is 16-3-1 SU and ATS in the first quarter at home as the Lions head coach. That includes two 14-0 leads against the Packers, a 10-0 lead over the 2019 Chiefs, and 3 leads with either Driskel or Blough. They have scored a first quarter TD in 10 of their last 12 home games. The only two they didn’t were with Blough last year and a FG this year to the Bears. DET +0.5 first quarter, DET TD first scoring play, Marvin Jones Jr./D’Andre Swift first TD all in play here. 

Bet: Lions +0.5 First Quarter (-141)

The Lions way. While they’re 16-3-1 ATS in the first quarter, they’re 8-12 ATS and 3-7 in their last 10 home games in the full 60 minutes, you know, the entire game thing? Meanwhile, the Texans are 5-1-3 ATS in their last 8 games on the road against a team with a losing record. 

Bet: HOU -3 (-110)

The Over is 4-1 for the Texans on the road (the one Under being a crazy weather game in Cleveland) and 10-2 in the Lions last 12 home games, including 4-0 this season. The Lions are allowing 32.5 points per game at home this season, which includes allowing 27 to the Bears! The Texans (if you take out that Browns game) are allowing 32.3 points per game on the road this season. 

Bet: Over 51 (-110)

Final Score Prediction: Texans 34 Lions 27 

Washington Football Team @ Dallas Cowboys 4:30 PM

The number 1 receiver on the opposing team against the Cowboys has a receiving TD in 6 of the last 8 games. They also have 6 or more receptions in 6 of the last 8 games. That’s good news for Scary Terry who has 7 or more grabs in 6 of his 10 games this season. He leads the team with 14 redzone targets, 5 more than any other player on the team. I like him to score today, maybe even twice?

Bet: McLaurin anytime TD Scorer (+135) McLaurin 2+ TDs (+750)

The only QBs to throw for 250+ against Washington in the last 8 weeks are Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford. 4 in the last 8 weeks didn’t get to 200. The Redskins have allowed over 4.6 yards per carry in their last 3 games while Zeke got 20+ carries for the first time since week 2 last weekend in Minnesota. I expect Zeke to feast and do that stupid feed me dance for every 1, 2, 10 yard run he gets today. 

Bet: Andy Dalton Under 249.5 Passing Yards (+100)

The Under is 5-1 in Washington’s last 6 games and 4-1 in the Cowboys last 5 games. The Cowboys rank 6th in big plays this season, but the Redskins defense ranks 7th in holding opponents to big plays. That’s why I think we’ll see a heavy dosage of Zeke on the Cowboys side, and a bunch of dinks to McKissic and dunks to McLaurin on the Redskins side. 

Bet: Under 46 (-110)

Final Score Prediction: Redskins 24 Cowboys 15

DFS Lineup

QB – Watson $7,400

RB – Elliott $6,800

RB – Du. Johnson $5,700

WR – McLaurin $7,000

WR – Cooper $5,700

WR – Jones Jr. $5,500

TE – Schultz $3,800

FLEX – Cooks $5,300

DEF – DAL $2,800

Good morning bettors. Wish nothing but cha ching for you today and always. Hope these picks contribute to that. Here we go.

Indiana @ Michigan State (IU -7/52) Noon

10^th ranked Hoosiers in action today and plenty of value in this game. The Hooisers are averaging a whooping 37 points per game while the Spartans are allowing that exact same figure. Sparty got destroyed at Iowa last weekend, only scoring one TD in a 49-7 beat down. They had scored 27 in each of their 2 games prior. Back at home, they should be able to get things going on offense. The Hoosiers have allowed over 25 points a game. IU games have gone 3-0 to the Over, while the Spartans have gone 2-1 to the Over, with the Under being against their rival Michigan which nearly missed the Over by 1 point. The Hoosiers may get to this number by themselves, so I’m big on the Over in this matchup.

Final Score Prediction: IU 42 Michigan State 20
Bet: Over 52

Penn State @ Nebraska (PSU -3/56.5) Noon

The battle of the disappointing unbeatens square off in Lincoln today. However, these two teams are not 3 points a part, despite the disappointing start by the Nittany Lions. They should have one win against the top 10 Hoosiers, but scoring a late touchdown came to bite them in the ass. They kept up with the Buckeyes as much as they could, despite narrowly not covering a 10 point spread, and yes, they got destroyed by a Maryland team that’s actually playing decent football at the moment. Hopefully that will wake them up to beat the Cornhuskers today, who have had their own problems. They’ve scored 15 points per game in their two games this season, and against the lone common opponent, they got destroyed 52-17 by the Buckeyes. At the beginning of the season, Penn State would have been a 2 TD favorite. They should be a 1 TD favorite. They’re a FG favorite. That’s called value.

Final Score Prediction: Penn State 27 Nebraska 16
Bet: Penn State -3

SMU @ Tulsa (pk, 65.5) 7 PM

SMU ranks 7^th in the country in yards per game. That should be accentuated by Tulsa’s 118^th rank in penalties per game. The Mustangs have scored 39.1 points per game this season, and have scored 47 or more  4 times, including in each of the past two weeks. Defensively, they’re allowing over 32 points per game over the past 5 weeks. Tulsa’s offense may not be the same as the Mustangs, but they are scoring 36.7 points per game over their last 3 games. This should be a shootout all night long. Take the Over, which I’ll be bold, and say it hits by the start of the 4^th quarter.

Final Score Prediction: SMU 52 Tulsa 49
Bet: Over 65.5

If you’ve ever played golf, you know every course is different. Augusta is the Taj Mahal of golf courses and has a unique style that plays into a specific skill set. This is one of the reasons why a debutant has not won this tournament since 1979. Experience matters in knowing the course (Sorry Morikawa, Wolff, Scheffler).

There are two key factors to watch this weekend; Par 5s and bogey avoidance. The Par 5s on this course have a 36% birdie rate. If you can birdie these, you’re in the Top 3^rd of the field, giving you a huge advantage. Even more important is the bogey avoidance. 7 holes on the course have a 25%+ bogey rate while another 4 have 20%+ bogey rates. There are 3 golfers who rate out in the top 5 in both categories. No surprise: Dustin Johnson, John Rahm and…former winner Patrick Reed.

Without further ado, let’s start a tradition unlike any other: Betting on the Masters!

Outright Winners

Dustin Johnson +850 – All the hype is on Rahm, and for valid reasons, but that puts DJ as an after thought. Here are his last 6 tournament finishes: 2^nd, 1^st, 2^nd, 1^st, 6^th, 2^nd. To be honest, +200 Top 5 seems like a value! Since the Covid restart, he has finished 1^st or 2^nd 7 out of 12 tournaments. He also has a good history here, logging 4 straight Top 10 finishes at Augusta. If you want a guy who will definitely be in it on Sunday, DJ is a sure fire bet.

John Rahm +1050 – I’m assuming he’ll be receiving the bulk of the bets going into Thursday, in large part because of his miracle hole in one on 16. I HATE betting the “obvious” guy, as it never seems to come to fruition. Not this time. Rahm is an animal, and it seems like he’s even having fun now? He’s loose and dangerous and has all the skills to get the green jacket. He’s finished 6^th or better in 4 of his last 6 tournaments, and has back to back Top 10 finishes at Augusta.

Xander Shauffele +1600 – Talk about a guy who is due. He has finished in the Top 10 in 6 of the last 8 majors he’s played in, including finishing 2^nd at the 2019 Masters. 10 of the last 15 winners here finished in the Top 10 the previous year. He ranks 5^th in birdie average 3^rd in strokes gained total. Price + Talent, this the best play on the board.

Brooks Koepka +1700 – I have been fading Brooks ever since his round 4 debacle at the PGA Championship. He was obviously not healthy and not playing his best game, two reasons I faded him, not to mention he seems like a douche. But in his two tournaments since his return to injury, he’s playing like himself again. Last Saturday and Sunday, he shot 5 under on both days to rise into the Top 5. Ok, so if this was anyone else, I probably wouldn’t touch him at this price based on recent form, but it’s death, taxes and Koepka in majors. He has 4 wins and 2 runner ups in his last 9 majors! He’s finished Top 5 in 7 of his last 9 majors, and 13^th or better in 12 of his last 14 majors! He finished 2^nd at the 2019 Masters, tied with Shauffele, so yeah, I’ll definitely have a ticket on Koepka even if I don’t like it.

Patrick Reed +3000- Par 5s? Check. Bogey Avoidance? Check. Experience at the Masters? Check. He ranks 17^th in strokes gained putting and 11^th in birdie average. He’s finished in the Top 15 in 5 of his last 7 tournaments and his experience here may just get him another green jacket.

Webb Simpson +4000 AND Tony Finau +3300 – Webb Simpson and Tony Finau are my favorite golfers, of course they both struggle to get over the hump at majors with the exception of Webb’s 2012 U.S. Open win. I’m not going to miss the bet when they finally do. Tony has finished in the Top 10 in  5 of his last 7 majors, and has finished 5^th and 10^th in each of his last 2 Masters. Webb has finished Top 20 in 7 of his last 10 majors and has finished in the Top 10 in 5 of his last 11 tournaments this year. He tied for 5^th at the Masters last year and might just get it done this year.

Top 10
Jason Kokrak +550 – +550 is a great price on a guy who has finished 17^th or better in 6 of his last 7 tournaments. He ranks 3^rd in strokes gained putting and 6^th in birdie average. He can still whack his driver too, ranking 34^th in driving distance. If he cleans up his irons a bit, he could win this one outright, and even if he doesn’t, he’s still a great bet for a Top 10. 90/1 to win is a nice price on Kokrak as well.

Bubba Watson +300 – I almost put Bubba on my outright list, but he’s got to clean up his putts if he wants to win this tournament. While he ranks 230^th in strokes gained putting, he ranks 8^th off the tee, 9^th approach to green, and 4^th in tee to green. Don’t worry about what that all means, just know he ranks 13^th in total strokes gained which is really good. He’s heating up at the right time, finishing in the Top 25 in 5 of his last 7 tournaments, finishing 7^th and 4^th in his last 2. He’s won this thing twice and has finished 12^th and 5^th in last 2 years.

Props

Top Debutant Scott Scheffler +550 – I said I wouldn’t take a debutant to win, but the best one in field is Scott Scheffler. He’s +400 to finish Top 10, which was my initial bet, but +550 to be the top debutant is a much better bet. The other two ahead of him are Morikawa, who has struggled recently and Matthew Wolff, who is the one I would worry about. But +550 on a toss up between those two is a good bet. But, Scheffler is 7^th in birdie average while Wolff is 61^st.

Top Lefty Bubba Watson -250 – I know this price is steep, but it’s not going to be close. Based on my projections, I have Bubba a Top 20 lock while the other 3 lefties, Mcikelson, Lin and Weir all missing the cut. If you’re worried about Phil, don’t be. He has 2 Top 40 finishes in his last 14 tournaments since the COVID restart while Bubba has finished in the Top 25 in 7 of his last 9.

Top Former Arizona State Player John Rahm -186 – The others are Paul Casey, Phil Mickelson and Chez Reavie. Casey has 3 Top 20’s in his last 12 tournaments while Rahm has finished in the Top 6 in 4 of his last 6. Example bets to hedge your Rahm winner:

Rahm to Win $50 to win $525. Rahm Top Arizona State $100 to win $54. If he wins, +$579, he loses, but beats Paul Casey +$4.

Lowest Score Under 64.5 -136 – Talent is ridiculous. Someone certainly will.

Winning Score Under 273.5 or -14.5 -134 See previous prop bet.

Hole in One in Tournament Yes -175 – previous props continued. Also see Rahm’s practice round. (**MGM odds boost from -182 to -110)

DFS *

If you’re playing DFS…

Top Tier:

D. Johnson $10,000
X. Shauffele $9,800
W. Simpson $9,300
B. Watson $9,000

Mid Tier:
J. Day $8,400
L. Oosthuizen $7,900
S. Scheffler $7,800

Value Plays:
K. Kisner $7,100
J. Kokrak $7,000
S. Munoz $6,700

 *Finshed 108 out of 4.8K last weekend

Happy Betting and enjoy The Masters!

Vacation, golfing, sunshine and beers kept me away for a few weeks, but I’m happy to be back to offer up my Week 9 bets. $$$$$$$

Prop of the Day – J. Allen Over 289.5 Passing Yards

The Hawks have allowed 366.4 passing yards per game this season and the only QB not to reach the 300 mark was Primetime Kirk Cousins. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Cam Newton and the combo of Mullens/Jimmy G all surpassed 300 yards passing against this secondary. The Bills rank 2^nd to last in running and will be trying to keep up with Russell Wilson all afternoon. Allen has already thrown over 300 yards 4 times this season, and with big play John Brown back, look for him to make it his 5^th.

Tease of the Day – HOU -0.5/LAC +7

There is Luton to like about this Jaguars offense. Watson threw for 350+ and 3 TDs a few weeks ago against this same team. Should eat them up. The Chargers get Vegas today, and I wouldn’t gamble anything on them holding on to a lead, but they’re good enough to keep it within a TD.

Lock of the day – DET/MIN Over 51

4 of the last 5 Vikings games have gone over thanks to a horrible defense that has allowed over 27 points per game. The offense is playing better lately, scoring 26 or more points in 4 of their last 5. Now they get a Lions defense that is allowing over 29 points per game which ranks 26^th in the league. The Lions offense is still really good, even without Golladay. They scored 21 points against the Colts stout defense and have scored an average of 26.6 points per game over their last 5 games.

Last weekend, we cashed in on some pretty big bets. UNC dominated offensively to get us some money. Clemson was a TD machine and Colin spilling over 3.5 helped us cash in on the lock of the year. And if you put anything on the best man icing the entire wedding party at +3000 then you have plenty to work with this week. Here are my Week 6 picks. Let’s get it.

Detroit Lions (-3) @ Jacksonville Jaguars 1 PM

I don’t even think the Lions can blow a double digit lead against this defense that ranks 32^nd in DVOA. Don’t be mistaken, this offense has been lights out this year, scoring nearly 25 points a game. Golladay fully healthy also helps. Being on the road and coming off a bye shouldn’t scare you away. The Lions are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games off a bye on the road.

Final Score Prediction: Lions 31 Jaguars 23
Bet: DET -3

Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) 1 PM

The only reason to back the Falcons here is that they don’t have Quinn coaching anymore. Still, Matt Ryan has not been good. In fact, the Falcons are just 1-13-1 ATS in their last 15 games in the month of October. Meanwhile, the Vikings haven’t been as bad as their 1-4 record seems. Their 4 losses are legit: GB, IND, TEN and SEA. Don’t look now, but Cousins has thrown for 760 yards, 6 TDs and 3 INTs in his last 3 games, and that was against average defenses. The Vikings are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games in October and 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games at home off a loss.

Final Score Prediction: Falcons 22 Vikings 35
Bet: MIN -3.5

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) 1 PM

If you think Ben Roethlisberger is even a hair better than Old Man Rivers, this should be one of the easiest bets you should make today. The Browns haven’t won at the Steel Curtain since 2003. The Colts got absolutely zero pressure in the first half last week that led to 20 first half points for the Browns. Despite being too late, the pressure was added in the second half, Baker took some shots, Odell took some shits, and the offense was held to just 3 points from that point on. Baker is NOT healthy and the Steelers pressure the QB 40% of the time. The Browns defense gets an offense that actually has playmakers and a competent decision maker this week. This one isn’t close.

Final Score Prediction: Browns 16 Steelers 34
PIT -3

Cincinnati Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts (-7.5) 1 PM
Baltimore Ravens (-10) @ Philadelphia Eagles 1 PM
New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins (-8.5) 4:05 PM
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers (-1.5) 1 PM
Washington Football Team @ New York Giants (-1.5) 1 PM

Ok, so here’s my recommendation with these 5 games; two teasers with two teams each. Pick 4 of the 5, mix and match, and have a good time.

1. IND -1.5 – I know I was just hard on the Colts, but their defense did play better in the second half and the Bengals aren’t any good. Colts are 11-0 SU and ATS off a loss facing a team with a losing record under Reich.
2. BAL -4 – Ravens are 16-0 SU in their last 16 regular season games against anybody but the Chiefs. The Eagles are not the Chiefs.
3. MIA -2.5 – Adam Gase still coaching? Frank Gore and Joe Flacco the offense?
4. CHI +7.5 – The Underdog is 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 games between these two teams. Teddy Bridgewater is 31-9 ATS as a starter though, so we’ll need the extra points to stay away from that trend.
5. WAS +7.5 – How can the Giants win by more than a TD against anyone? I don’t even care that they’re playing the Football Team.

Newly Wed Special – Green Bay Packers (-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4:25 PM

The Packers are 4-0 ATS this season, covering by more than 11 points a game. They are also 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite of less than a touchdown.

Final Score Prediction: Packers 10/10/20 = 40 Buccaneers 20

Happy Betting! Go Colts! $$$

Season Record: 3-3

Went 3-0 last week, so hoping to keep it going here this week. This is a tough week though. Here are my top 4 bets for week 3.

Carolina Panthers @ LA Chargers (-6.5) 4:05 PM

Panthers lose CMAC. Chargers almost beat the defending champs. Not so fast. Remember the Chargers needed a lot of luck just to beat the Bengals in week 1 while the Panthers have been competitive in each of their first two games. In his career, Teddy Bridgewater is 20-3 ATS in non division games and 12-0 ATS vs a non division opponent coming off of a loss. Take the points, look for it to be a low scoring, close game late.

Final Score Prediction: Panthers 20 Chargers 23
Bet: CAR +6.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5) @ Denver Broncos 4:25 PM

The Over is 14-2 in the last 16 games Arians has coached. Broncos defense has not been unbreakable, and Tom Brady gets a fully loaded offense with Godwin coming back. Meanwhile, the Bucs have allowed 25.5 ppg to subpar offenses (yes, that includes the Saints). Broncos looked more in rhythm with Driskel, and if not improved, their offense should be close to the same. The Bucs run defense has been beaten up this year, and the Broncos have a solid run game that should produce some points.

Final Score Prediction: Buccaneers 27 Broncos 23
Bet: Over 42.5

LA Rams @ Buffalo Bills (-2) 1 PM

Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano return to the Bills defense this week. They’ll need them too, with how shaky their pass defense has been and with how good Jared Goff has been. Oh right, it’s Jared freaking Goff, on the road, against a good team. Pump the brakes on the Rams bandwagon. They’ve beaten a banged up Cowboys team (and shouldn’t have) and an Eagles team that’s atrocious. Their defense has been solid, so an under look here looks good too.

Final Score Prediction: Rams 16 Bills 23
Bet: BUF -1.5 & Under 46.5

Season Record: 0-3

Got off to a terrible start in Week 1 and hoping for better results in Week 2. Here are my top 3 plays for the week!

San Francisco (-6.5) @ New York Jets 1 PM

All trends actually say to go with the Jets here. The 49ers are only 1-3 ATS as an away and 5-8-1 ATS after a loss favorite since 2018. In their last 15 games as a road favorite against a team with a losing record, the 49ers are 1-13-1. And remember, this Jets team upset the Cowboys early in the season last year. Ehh, not this time. Crowder OUT. Bell OUT. Adams PEACED OUT. Gase STILL A DUMBASS. The Niners D was pretty decent despite Murray running for over 90 yards. The Cardinals also scored one of their touchdowns off a blocked punt with the drive starting from the 10. Niners clean up their mistakes this week and blowout the Jets.

Final Score Prediction: 49ers 30 Jets 6
Bet: SF -6.5

Washington Redskins @ Arizona Cardinals (-7) 4:05 PM

These teams combined for 51 points last week, however, only 17 of those points came on drives starting in their own territories (all by the Cardinals). In fact, the Redskins lead the league in punts after week 1. The Redskins front 7 caused Wentz all sorts of problems and I think they can apply some pressure of Murray and the Cardinals. If the Cardinals limit their turnovers and keep the Redskins starting field position in a favorable spot, Haskins will have trouble having long, sustainable drives. The Cardinals are 8-2 to the Under in their last 10 September games. I like this to be a field position game, take the under.

Final Score Prediction: Redskins 17 Cardinals 20
Bet: Under 46.5

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (-7.5) 1 PM
Denver Broncos @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5) 1 PM

The Colts were the 14th team in NFL history with 400+ yards of total offense, to not punt in the game, and still lose. By 7 nonetheless! Lightning doesn’t strike twice. The Titans are a good football team that doesn’t drown themselves in the “Rivers.” Derick Henry’s props are To Score (-265) and over/under 118.5 rushing yards (+105). Big game coming. As for the Steelers, they held Saquon to 6 yards and only gave up one fluke TD early in the game. Otherwise, this defense is the real deal. The Broncos faced a kicker who missed 4 times and still lost the game, mostly because their offense was a joke. A bad matchup here for the Broncos on the road. Tease the two games and win big.

Final Score Predictions: Jaguars 9 Titans 31; Broncos 13 Steelers 23
Bet: Tease 6 points TEN -1.5/PIT -0.5