LA Clippers @ Indiana Pacers (IND -1.5, 217) 7:10 PM

This will be the 7^th game Kawhi Leonard misses this season. He must be scared of his former team? The Clippers are 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS without Kawhi, but have won their last 3 straight up. There is more value here on, yep, the over. The Clippers average 118 ppg without Kahwi in the lineup. The over has hit in 3 of the last 4 Pacers home games. So you know what we’re going to do? Let’s go against the instincts and go with the under. The Pacers defense does rank 5^th in scoring and while the Clippers have score 121 points or more in 4 of the 6 games without Kawhi, 3 of those came against bottom 5 scoring teams. The other two games they didn’t score 121 points they scored only 96 and 90 against the 9^th and 14^th ranked scoring defenses.

Bet: Under 217
Confidence: -5 Units
Result: Clippers 110 Pacers 99

Detroit Pistons @ New Orleans Pelicans (NO -1, 226.5) 8 PM
Toronto Raptors @ Chicago Bulls (TOR -5.5, 214.5) 8:10 PM
Orlando Magic @ Milwaukee Bucks (MIL -12.5, 219) 8:10 PM

How about our first tease since this blog went up. A Teaser bet allows us to bet on different games and  adjust the point spreads, but a lower return on the bets in the event of a win. You can adjust the point spreads by 4, 4.5 or 5 points. I’m going to do 4.5 for the purpose of this bet.

DET +1 -> DET +5.5
The Pistons have won 3 of their last 4, including beating the Pacers by 7 following 2 big wins beating the Spurs by 34 and the Cavs by 33. Their only loss was to the Bucks who have won 14 in a row. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are currently on a 8 game losing streak in which they have lost by an average of 14.9 ppg including coming off a 46 point loss to the Mavericks on Saturday. I like the Pistons outright, but at the very least to keep it within 5 against a team that hasn’t won in nearly 3 weeks.

TOR -5.5 -> TOR -1
The Raptors 7 game winning streak took a screeching halt by losing their next 3 games. However, those loses came against Miami, Houston and Philadelphia. The Raptors are 12-0 against teams below .500 this season. The Bulls are 0-8 against teams above .500 and have lost by an average margin of 12.8 ppg. The Raptors end their losing streak and handle business on the road.

MIL -12.5 -> MIL -8
The Bucks are doing scary things right now. They have won 14 straight and 18 of their last 19 overall. They have beaten 12 of their last 13 opponents by 8 points or more. They have won their last 4 games by an average, yes an average, of 34.3 ppg. Last time these two teams played the Bucks won by 32 and they are even better now. If there is one of these 3 you want to one off (or bet to cover your bet on the teaser) this would be it.

Bet: Teaser- DET +5.5/TOR -1/MIL -8
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Pistons 105 Pelicans 103
Raptors 93 Bulls 92
Magic 101 Bucks 110

Memphis Grizzlies @ Golden State Warriors (GS -3, 219.5) 10:40 PM

The Warriors average 104.7 ppg this season which ranks 27^th. But it’s so much worse than that. If you cut their season in half, they scored 110.3 ppg in their first 12 games, scored more than 105 points in 9 of those 12 games and scored 100 or less in 3 of those games. In the last 12 games, they have scored 99.1 ppg, scored more than 105 points in 2 of those 12 games and scored 100 or less in 8 of those 12 games. The under has hit in 10 of the last 13 games following a Warriors win. Meanwhile, Memphis has struggled offensively recently, scoring 104.8 ppg over their last 5 and were held to 95 the last time these two teams played.

Bet: Under 219.5
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Grizzlies 110 Warriors 102

Today’s Record: 3-0
All-Time Record: 34-31 (52.3%)

Minnesota @ Iowa (IOWA -6, 145.5) 8 PM

This is a big matchup…I mean a BIG matchup. The two leading scorers in the Big Ten face off as Gopher’s 6-foot-10, 240 pound Daniel Oturu, scoring 17.5 ppg will battle against Hawkeyes 6-foot-11, 260 pound Luka Garza, scoring 22.7 ppg which ranks 11^th nationally and coming off a 44 point performance against Michigan. Although the Gophers are coming off an impressive 18 point victory at home against Clemson, they have not played very well this season, going 4-4 and falling short in games they could have won. They have lost both true road games and going into Iowa is no easy task. The Hawkeyes are 6-3 this season, but the 3 teams they lost to have a combined 26-1 record. I like the Hawkeyes to handle business at home tonight.

Bet: IOWA -6
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Minnesota 52 Iowa 72

Today’s Record: 1-0
All-Time Record: 22-13 (62.8%)

San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans (NO -2.5, 44.5) 1 PM

This should be one of the better games on today’s slate. 49ers left tackle Joe Staley is questionable which could make a difference here. Either way, I think I will side with Drew Brees at home in the Superdome. You know that crowd is going to give Jimmy G some problems and I’ll strictly side with the Saints because of home field advantage. Final Score Prediction: 49ers 20 Saints 23

Bet: NO -2.5
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: 49ers 48 Saints 46

Denver Broncos @ Houston Texans (HOU -9, 43) 1 PM

This spread is just too high. I know the Texans are at home coming off a big win against the Patriots, but let’s give this Broncos team a little bit of credit. Their defense is allowing 20.2 ppg over their last 5 games. 5 of their 8 losses have come by one possession and the Texans defense can be vulnerable at times. Look for Lock and Sutton to keep these Broncos in it until the end. Final Score Prediction: Broncos 20 Texans 24

Bet: DEN +9
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Broncos 38 Texans 24

Washington Redskins @ Green Bay Packers (GB -13.5, 41.5) 1 PM

The underdog covers more than 60% of the time when the total is under 44 and the spread is greater than 11. That bodes well for the Redskins here. The Redskins have won 2 straight not and are starting to look like a football team. The Redskins are 4-2 ATS as a double digit underdog and they are playing their best football of the season right now. Final Score Prediction: Redskins 16 Packers 24

Bet: WAS +13.5
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Redskins 15 Packers 20

Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills (BAL -6.5, 43.5) 1 PM

Bet: BUF +6.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Ravens 24 Bills 17

LA Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (LAC -3, 42.5) 4:05 PM

Bet: Under 42.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Chargers 45 Jaguars 10

Today’s Record: 2-3
All-Time Record: 17-22 (43.6%)

Baylor -4.5
Ohio State -7.5
Butler -3.5
Villanova -15
IU -1
Maryland -10
Georgetown +3.5

Today’s Record: 4-3
All-Time Record: 21-13 (61.8%)

Bets:

Oklahoma -9
Miami (OH) +6.5
App State -5.5
FAU -8.5
Cincinnati +9
UGA/LSU Under 57.5
Virginia +29
Ohio State -15.5

Today’s Record: 5-3
All-Time Record: 27-31 (46.6%)

Oregon @ Utah (UTAH -6.5, 45.5) 8 PM

The Utes should be in the college football playoff. They allow 12.3 ppg which is 4^th in the country with only Clemson, Ohio State and Georgia better. They have allowed 15 points or less in 10 of their 12 games this season. The Ducks are no easy task though. They have scored 55 touchdowns to only 6 field goals this season. Defensively, they have played much stronger down the stretch allowing only 17.8 ppg over their last 4 games. These aren’t the best passing conditions with winds expected to be over 20 mph and rain for much of the game in Levi’s Stadium. The problem with that is Oregon allows only 116.7 rushing yards per game which ranks 18^th while Utah allows only 58.3 rushing yards per game which ranks 1^st. It seems like this will be a slug it out, low scoring game and as explosive as these teams can be, I’m leaning the under in this one. Final Score Prediction: Oregon 17 Utah 21

Bet: Under 45.5
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Oregon 37 Utah 15

Today’s Record: 0-1
All-Time Record: 22-28 (44%)

Indiana Pacers @ Detroit Pistons (IND -1.5, 211) 7:10 PM

I won’t give you an over/under pick for a Pacers game until we start getting some right (bet the over tonight). Instead, I like the Pacers to cover tonight. They are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Pistons are just 2-6 SU and ATS vs teams with a winning record (although both wins are against the Pacers). I think this Pacers team is just getting heated up and they go in and beat the Pistons tonight.

Bet: IND -1.5
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result:

Brooklyn Nets @ Charlotte Hornets (BKN -2.5, 217.5) 7:10 PM
Washington Wizards @ Miami Heat (MIA -9.5, 233) 8:10 PM
Golden State @ Chicago Bulls (CHI -4, 214) 8:10 PM

We’ll do a 3 team round robin here. Essentially 3 parlays of two bet combos. We’ll start with the Nets. They have covered 11 of their last 16 overall and are dominating against teams with losing records going 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games. They have won 4 of their last 5 road games and should handle the Hornets.
The Heat should have no problem with the god awful Wizards. They are 5-0 SU after a loss, 8-0 SU at home, 10-1 ATS as a favorite and 6-0 ATS after failing to cover in their previous game. Heat win.
The Bulls are a home favorite tonight against the horrible Warriors. The Bulls are 4-1 ATS as a home favorite. The Bulls lost to the Warriors earlier this season, but they won’t tonight at home.

Bet: Round Robin BKN -2.5/MIA ML/CHI -4
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result:

LA Clippers @ Milwaukee Bucks (MIL -4, 232.5) 8:40 PM

The last time these two went at it, the Bucks won 129-124. The Bucks have won 17 of their last 18 games and 13 in a row. They have won 11 of their last 12 games by 8 points or more. Yowsers! But, the Clippers have been hot as well, winning 9 of their last 10, with 4 of their last 5 wins coming by 15 points or more! I don’t want to bet against either of these teams right now, so instead, we’ll take the over. The Clippers are averaging 122.1 ppg over their last 7 games and have scored 120.8 ppg with Paul George in the lineup. Meanwhile, the Bucks have scored 119 points or more in 7 of their last 9 games in which they are averaging 124.9 ppg. The over/under in the previous matchup was 128 and it hit the over by 25 points. I don’t think this total is high enough with how much these teams have been socring lately. Take the over.

Bet: Over 232.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result:

LA Lakers @ Portland Trailblazers (LAL -4.5, 224.5) 10:40 PM

The Lakers are once again a small favorite against a weaker team despite being a league best 19-3 this season. While Portland has been playing better lately, winning 4 of their last 5 games, they are just 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS vs teams with a winning record this season including going 0-6 SU and ATS in their last 6 games in these instances. This spread is too low, and I’ll happily keep betting on Lebron and the Lakers until Vegas starts giving them some credit.

Bet: LAL -4.5
Confidence: 3 Units
Result:

Today’s Record:
All-Time Record: 31-31 (50%)

Duke @ Virginia Tech (DUKE -7, 143) 7 PM
USC @ TCU (TCU -4, 137) 9 PM

This seems like an upset spot for Duke, right? The Hokies already upset Michigan State and Duke has already lost at home to unranked Stephen F Austin. However, I think both of those occurrences are why Duke won’t overlook the Hokies. Since upsetting Michigan State, the Hokies are 0-2 with losses by 27 and 13. Duke is far more talented and will be ready to play.

TCU would be 7-0 if they held a 15 point lead vs Clemson with 8 minutes left in the second half. They haven’t played a very hard schedule, but neither has USC.I think with TCU at home and holding teams to 59.6 ppg this season, they will be able to cover this small, home spread.

Bet: Duke ML/TCU -4
Confidence: 1 Unit

Today’s Record: 0-1
All-Time Record: 17-10 (63%)

Dallas Cowboys @ Chicago Bears (DAL -3, 43) 8:20 PM

The Cowboys are 6-1 SU and ATS against teams with a losing record and 0-5 SU and ATS against teams with a winning record. The Bears are 6-6 so this game should end in a tie (+950 to go to OT anyone?). Ok, I won’t suggest that as a best bet, but maybe sprinkle so juice on it? The best bet here is actually the under. 15 of the last 19 Bears games have gone under the total. The Bears defense allows 17.3 ppg which ranks 4^th in the league and they have allowed 20 points or less in 5 of their last 6. The Cowboys offense ranks 8^th with 25.8 ppg but 8 of those games were against bottom half of the league in scoring defenses. In the four games against top 16 scoring defenses, the Cowboys are 0-4 and have scored just 14.5 ppg. Dallas’ 19.7 ppg allowed on defense ranks 8^th should be able to stop Trubisky and the Bears offense that has scored more than 20 points just once in the last 6 games. The kicking game helps us out too as Mahher has missed 3 of his last 6 kicks and has missed a field goal in 6 of his last 8 games.  Meanwhile Pinero has made 2 + field goals in only 4 of the Bears 12 games this season. Final Score Prediction: Cowboys 20 Bears 17 OT

Bet: Under 43…with a sprinkle of OT
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Cowboys 24 Bears 31

Today’s Record: 0-1
All-Time Record: 15-19 (44.1%)

Oklahoma @ North Texas (OKLA -6, 130) 8 PM

The Sooners have one loss on the season, a 73-54 loss to Stanford last Monday. They were held to 54 points in the loss and otherwise score 79.3 ppg in their 6 wins. Stanford ranks 11^th in defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, North Texas, who ranks 127^th, simply does not have the defensive fortitude to stop a solid Sooner’s offense. Oklahoma only turns the ball over Offensively, North Texas won’t be able  times per game which ranks 16^th. This will be a problem for North Texas who won’t be able to keep up, as they rank 283^rd in turnovers per game. This spread seems too low for a 6-1 Big 12 team against a 3-5 Conference USA team. Take the Sooners.

Bet: OKLA -6
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Oklahoma 82 North Texas 80

Today’s Record: 0-1
All-Time Record: 17-9 (65.4%)