Indianapolis Colts @ New Orleans Saints (NO-9, 47.5) 8:15 PM

I’m going back to the weirdest betting trend we’ve seen in some time. 81% of underdogs of 9-10 points have covered since 2003. That bodes well for the Colts. The Saints have only won 3 games by more than 9 points this season and 7 of their 10 victories have come by one possession. Meanwhile 11 of the 13 Colt’s games have been decided by one possession or less, while all but one has been a 1 possession game at some point in the 4^th quarter. With T.Y. a possibility to play, and the likelihood of both teams to utilize their rushing games, maybe this one stays close until the 4^th. Final Score Prediction: Colts 23 Saints 29

Bet: IND +9
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Colts 7 Saints 34

Bonus Prop Bet:

Michael Thomas has eclipsed 100 yards in 6 of his last 7 games. He has at least 8 catches in 9 of his last 10 games, and has double digit targets in 8 of his last 9 games. He is the offense, and with Kenny Moore, the Colts top corner questionable to play tonight, expect Michael Thomas to do his usual.

Bet: Michael Thomas over 105.5 receiving yards
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Michael Thomas 128 receiving yards

Today’s Record: 1-1
All-Time Record: 19-26 (42.2%)

Washington Wizards @ Detroit Pistons (DET -5.5, 229.5) 7:10 PM

The Wizards have lost 7 of their last 8 games. They have allowed 125.5 ppg over that span. Their average margin per loss is 14.7 points per game. Meanwhile, the Pistons have won 5 of their last 7 with a margin of victory of 16.8 ppg. Two teams going in different directions and the better team at home, I’ll lay the points and take the Pistons.

Bet: DET -5.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Wizards 133 Pistons 119

Miami Heat @ Memphis Grizzlies (MIA -4.5, 217.5) 8:10 PM

The Heat are 14-0 as a favorite this season and now get the Grizzlies who are just 4-11 at home. They are 15-1 SU and 12-4 ATS against teams with losing records. The Grizzlies are 1-12 SU and 3-10 ATS against teams with winning records. The Heat are clearly the better team and should take care of business on the road.

Bet: MIA -4.5
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Heat 111 Grizzlies 118

Today’s Record: 0-2
All-Time Record: 38-36 (51.4%)

New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals (NE -10, 42) 1 PM

The Patriots are 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS against teams with winning records. However, they are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS against teams with losing records. The have an average winning margin of 18.7 and allow only 8.4 points per game in those games. The Bengals ranks 31^st in points per game and I think the Pats offense is good enough to outscore the Bengals defense by 10. Final Score Prediction: Bengals 10 Patriots 27

Bet: NE -10
Confidence: 5 Units
Result:  Patriots 34 Bengals 13

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -9.5, 43.5) 1 PM

Have you seen the weather in Kansas City today? It’s a blizzard and the entire field is covered in snow. Drew Lock played at Missouri so he’s familiar with this type of weather,b but Patrick Mahomes, a kid from Texas, should be a fun watch. Ultimately, I think we see more running in this game than passing and the Broncos have the advantage. The Chiefs allow 137.7 rushing yards per game which ranks 28^th. I expect Phillip Lindsay to have a good day and keep this within one score for a much improved Broncos team against a still trying to figure things out Chiefs team. Final Score Prediction: Broncos 21 Chiefs 24

Bet: DEN +9.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Broncos 3 Chiefs 23

Minnesota Vikings @ LA Chargers (MIN -1, 45) 4:05 PM

The Chargers defense is final healthy and flying all over the field. They held the Chiefs to 24 points a few weeks back, the Packers to only 11. They looked like the team we expected them to be last week in their 45-10 win in Jacksonville. I think they come home and will want to prove something. Problem is I don’t trust Phillip Rivers against a good Vikings defense. I think both quarterbacks will struggle and will have to rely on their running games to produce points. Therefore, I like the under in this game. Final Score Prediction: Vikings 20 Chargers 17

Bet: Under 45
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Vikings 39 Chargers 10

Today’s Record: 1-2
All-Time Record: 18-25 (41.9%)

Army vs Navy (Navy -11, 40.5) 3 PM

Arguably the best rivalry in all of sports, the Midshipman and Black Knights take the field today in Philadelphia for all the glory. Since 2006, when service academy teams play each other, the under is 34-9-1. The under in this rivalry has hit in 13 straight. So the logical pick here is take the under. See, I wanted to, but this spread is too low. Although the under has hit in 13 straight, the average total in those games is 50. Although these offenses run, run and then run some more, they score points. Navy has scored 34 points or more in 9 of their 11 games. They were held to 20 by Notre Dame and 23 by Memphis, their two losses. Meanwhile, Army is coming off a loss to Hawaii in which they gave up 52 points. Army has scored 29 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games while Navy has allowed 28 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games. I know you want to bet the house on the under, but Vegas has finally adjusted to this crazy historical trend and I think for the first time in a long time, we’re going to see an over. Final Score Prediction: Army 17 Navy 34

Bet: Over 40.5
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result:

Today’s Record:
All-Time Record: 27-31 (46.6%)

Syracuse @ Georgetown (GT -3, 145.5) 1 PM

The Orange are coming off a 34 point blowout win against Georgia Tech. But before that, they had lost 3 in a row to much  better competition. Meanwhile, Georgetown already has big wins against Texas, at Oklahoma State and at SMU. Georgetown averages 39.4 rebounds per game, which ranks 32nd in the country while Syracuse ranks 198th in rebounds allowed per game. I expect the Hoyas to have an advantage off the glass and on the scoreboard.

Bet: GT -3
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Syracuse 79 Georgetown 89

Seton Hall @ Rutgers (SH -2.5, 141.5) 4 PM

Rutgers comes into this one 7-0 at home and a 7 point win against Wisconsin. However, Seton Hall is a much more polished team than the Badgers. They are 6-3 on the season, but two of those are one possession losses to two top ten teams, Michigan State and Oregon. They are coming off a loss at Iowa State, who I think is much better than this Rutgers team. I think this test is too mighty for Rutgers and Seton Hall gets a big road win.

Bet: SH -2.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Seton Hall 48 Rutgers 68

Xavier @ Wake Forest (XAV -6, 142) 4 PM

The 22^nd ranked Muskateers travel to North Carolina to face off against Wake Forest. Xavier has won three in a row and are coming off a 7 point win against in state rival Cincinnati. They have one blemish on their record, a 5 point loss to the Florida Gators. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech has lost three in a row by an average margin of 12.7 per game. I’ll give the 6 points and side with the much better team.

Bet: XAV -6
Confidence:
Result: Xavier 78 Wake Forest 80

Today’s Record: 1-2
All-Time Record: 24-17 (58.5%)

Michigan @ Illinois (ILL -1.5, 145.5) 9 PM

The Illini are coming off a blown lead to Maryland last time out. This would have been their best win on the season. Otherwise, their best win is against Grand Canyon. Although huge, not a great basketball team. The Wolverines are more battle tested and can handle the environment. Take the Wolverines and the points.

Bet: MICH +1.5
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Michigan 62 Illinois 71

Today’s Record: 0-1
All-Time Record: 23-15 (60.5%)

Boston Celtics @ Indiana Pacers (BOS -1, 209.5) 7:10 PM

I don’t like this game, because it is a game the Pacers could win or could lose. Just depends on what team will show up. I think the Celtics will struggle with Sabonis tonight, so consider taking over 17.5 points, or maybe IND +1. Since I am indifferent, I’m going with the under. The Pacers like to slow things down after a loss with the over/under being 2-5-1 after a Pacers loss. The under has hit in 6 of the last 9 Celtics games and they have held their last 3 opponents to 95 points or less.

Bet: Under 209.5
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Celtics 117 Pacers 122

Houston Rockets @ Cleveland Cavaliers (HOU -11.5, 229) 7:10 PM

The Rockets have been shaky lately, and a devastating last second three left them with a loss at home to the Kings. But now they get the horrible Cavaliers. They have lost 13 of their last 14 games and have only covered in 3 of those games. They have lost 9 of their last 12 by double digits and are currently on a 7 game losing streak in which they are losing by an average margin of 24.9! The Rockets should steam roll this team.

Bet: HOU -11.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Rockets 116 Cavaliers 110

Utah Jazz @ Minnesota Timberwolves (UTA -1.5, 222) 8:10 PM

The Jazz have struggled recently, losing 4 of their last 5 and 6 of their last 8 with their only wins in that span coming against Memphis. But I like them to bounce back tonight in Minnesota they have allowed 7 of their last 9 and have allowed 128.4 on their current 5 game losing streak. Utah is the better team, but their struggles are why this spread is so low.

Bet: UTA -1.5
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Jazz 127 Timberwolves 116

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Sacramento Kings (SAC -1.5, 208.5) 10:10 PM

The Kings are coming off back to back wins against the Mavericks and the Rockets. This is a good team, but can they make it 3 big wins in a row. The Thunder are playing a the highest level lately, winning 7 of their last 9 and 5 of their last 6.  The Thunder are 7-3 ATS on the road while the  Kings are 1-2 ATS as a home favorite.

Bet: OKC +1.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Thunder 93 Kings 94

Today’s Record: 2-2
All-Time Record: 38-34 (52.8%)

Texas Tech @ Louisville (LOU -6, 125.5) 7 PM

This Texas Tech team is not the same team that made it to the final four last season. They started off that way, winning each of their first 5 games against weak opponents by at least 15 points. But since their hot start, they have lose three in a row against Iowa, Creighton and DePaul. Now, the Red Raiders get a matchup on the road against the number 1 team in the country. The Red Raiders are going to need to improve their shooting, 21.9 % Effective FG % (90^th) and 35.2% Three Point % (93^rd) if they have any chance in this one. Louisville’s defense allows 57.6 ppg (14^th) allows 40.6% effective FG% (3^rd) and allow only 27.3% from three (22^nd). Meanwhile, their offense is shooting 49.6% from the field (14^th) and scoring 77.1 ppg (54^th). I like the Cardinals to win big.

Bet: LOU -6
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Texas Tech 70 Louisville 57

Indiana vs UConn (IU -1.5, 139.5) 9 PM

Initially, the over looked like a good play here. IU scores 83.2 ppg which ranks 9^th while Connecticut scores 76.9 ppg which ranks 60^th. Both teams allow around 65 points per game against much worse offenses, so I find it realistic for both teams to score 70. But there are some key areas where IU has advantages tonight. The Hooisers are shooting 50.8% from the field (6^th) while the Huskies are only shooting 41.5% (224^th). The Hoosiers rank 34^th in offensive rebounds while the Huskies rank 268^th in defensive rebounds. I expect a lot of second chance points and the Hoosiers to do what they do best, which is get to the free throw line. Seriously, they rank #1 in both free throw attempts and free throws made. Look for the Hoosiers to play sound basketball and get the W tonight.

Bet: IU -1.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Indiana 57 UConn 54

Today’s Record: 1-1
All-Time Record: 23-14 (62.2%)

Denver Nuggets @ Philadelphia 76ers (PHI -4, 208.5) 8 PM

The Nuggets have lost 4 of their last 5 games, and have only averaged 103.8 ppg over that span including 3 games under 100 points. The 76ers have allowed 95 points or less in 5 of their last 9 games in which they have averaged allowing 100 ppg. The 76ers allow 98.7 ppg at home this season and are ranked 4^th in ppg allowed overall. In the Nuggets 5 other games against top 5 scoring defenses, they have failed to score more than 100 points and averaged 95.6 ppg. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have held their opponents to 108 or less in 9 straight games in which they allow 100.6 ppg. That includes games against Houston (1^st in scoring), Washington (3^rd in scoring), Phoenix (5^th in scoring) and the Lakers (9^th in scoring). The 76ers rank 16^th in scoring. I don’t see the Nuggets reaching 100 or the 76ers reaching 108. Leaves us with the under which has hit in 7 of the Nugget’s 8 road games and in 16 of the combined 21 games these teams have played with equal rest. Think 208.5 is too low? The under is 2-5 in Nugget’s games with a total of 210 or less and is 1-4 in the 76ers last 5 with a total of 210 or less.

Bet: Under 208.5
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Nuggets 92 76ers 97

Atlanta Hawks @ Miami Heat (MIA -9, 218.5) 8:10 PM

Miami Is 10-0 SU at homes this season and 14-1 SU vs teams with losing records. Although the Hawks are coming off a 15 point road victory in Charlotte, they are 1-4 SU after an outright win. The Heat’s defense is good, but they have allowed 105 points or more in 8 of their last 10 games, allowing an average of 107.9 ppg over that span. While the Hawks offense hasn’t been solid all year, they have averaged 112 ppg over their last 10 games. 4 of the last 5 Heat home games have gone over the total. The Heat only score 106.2 ppg on the road, but score 117.2 ppg at home while the Hawks defenses allows only 112 ppg at home, they allow 122.2 ppg on the road.

Bet: MIA ML/Over 218.5
Confidence: 2 Unit
Result: Hawks 121 Heat 135 OT

New York Knicks @ Portland Trailblazers (POR -8.5, 218.5) 10:10 PM

Look, I know, the Knicks have lost 9 in a row, but I think they are actually improving. The lost 6 of their first 9 games by double digits. But in the 12 games since, they have only lost by double digits 3 times. They are only scoring 98.8 ppg on their current losing streak, but here is the scoring rank of each defense they have faced over that span: 4, 25, 18, 7, 4, 2, 10, 1, 6. That’s 7 of those 9 games against top 10 scoring defenses. Portland ranks 24^th. In their game against the 25^th scoring defense they lost by 7 to the Spurs. Maybe I just feel sorry for them with how they lost to the Pacers, but I’m siding with the Knickerbockers tonight.

Bet: NYK +8.5
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Knicks 87 Trailblazers 115

Today’s Record: 2-1
All-Time Record: 36-32 (52.9%)

NY Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles (PHI -9, 46) 8:15 PM  

I don’t want to bet on a team that has lost 5 of their last 7 and just lost to the Dolphins. On the other side, I don’t want to bet on a team that has lost 8 straight and are starting one of the worst quarterbacks in the league without Evan Engram. I don’t trust the under because both these defenses blow. I mean the Eagles just gave up 37 points to the Dolphins! But I don’t want to take the over because, well, Eli really. So, I think the value here is going to be on the Eagles team points over 26.5. It seems like a high number, but the Giants have allowed 27 points or more in 7 of their 8 games on this losing streak and in 10 of their 12 games overall. The only two teams all season to not reach 27 points against the Giants this season are the Redskins and the Bears, the 32^nd and 26^th scoring offenses in the league. The Eagles rank 16^th with 22.8 ppg. They have scored 30+ points in 5 games this season, and I expect them to do it again here. Final Score Prediction: Giants 16 Eagles 33

Bet: Eagles Team Total Over 26.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Giants 17 Eagles 23 OT

Today’s Record: 0-1
All-Time Record: 17-23 (42.5%)