Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans (HOU -2.5, 43.5) 4:35 PM

The Bills lost 3 of their last 4 games, but have still solidified the 5 seed in this year’s playoffs. As a road underdog, the Bills were 4-0-2 ATS including 4 SU wins. The Under is 8-1 when the Bills are underdogs and 9-1 when they play outside of the AFC East. The Texans are just 2-6 ATS at home and 1-5-1 as a favorite. The Under is 5-2 when the Texans are favored. I like the Bills outright and to do it with a strong defensive showing. Final Score Prediction: Bills 20 Texans 16

Bet: Under 43.5
Confidence: 3 Units 
Result: Bills 19 Texans 22 OT

Bet: BUF +2.5
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Bills 19 Texans 22 OT

Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots (NE -4.5, 45) 8:15 PM

It’s probably a bad idea to bet against Brady, at home, in the playoffs, right? The Pats are 4-2 with a rest advantage this season, but just 3-7 ATS with equal rest (Both teams played last Sunday). They are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games. The defense allowed just 7.6 ppg in their first 8 games but played none of the playoff teams. In the last 8 games, they allowed 20.5 ppg and went 1-3-1 ATS against playoff teams. The Titans are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games. Since getting shutout in Denver in week 6, the Titans have scored 30.4 ppg, which ranks 2nd in the league in that span. The Over is 9-1 in those games. I won’t pull the trigger on betting against Brady, too scared, but I will take the over, as the Patriots offense has at least scored 22 points in 4 of their last 5 games. Final Score Prediction: Titans 24 Patriots 27

Bet: Over 45
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Titans 20 Patriots 13

Playoff Record: 1-2
All-Time Record: 20-29 (40.8%)

Western Kentucky vs Western Michigan (WKU -3.5, 54.5) 12:30 PM

The Hilltoppers come into this one covering the spread in 7 of their last 9 games. They’ve done so with a very strong defense that allows just 18.7 ppg which ranks 13th. They allow just 181.6 passing yards per game which ranks 8th and are 3rd in the country on 3rd down defense. The offense has improved as the season has progressed. They averaged 21 ppg over their first 6 games and 30.2 ppg over their last 6 games. This Western Michigan offense ranks 15th in yards per game, but that is against some weak MAC opponents. This Western Kentucky defense brings it and gets the W. Final Score Prediction: Western Kentucky 34 Western Michigan 27 

Bet: WKU -3.5
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Western Kentucky 23 Western Michigan 20

Mississippi State vs Louisville (MSU -4.5, 63) 4 PM

The Bulldogs needed a grown man to act like a pissing canine to get a bowl bid, and here they are. Junior running back Kylin Hill will be entering the NFL draft after rushing for 100 yards in 8 of his 12 games this season. He should have a big day against the 111th scoring defense in the Cardinals. However, this Cardinals offense can keep pace, averaging 205.5 rushing yards per game, ranking 27th. I’ll play the motivation factor here that the Cardinals exceeded expectations this season under first year head coach Scott Satterfield with upset wins against Virginia and Wake Forest while Mississippi State didn’t even show up to big games with blowout losses to Auburn, Alabama, LSU and Texas A&M. Final Score Prediction: Mississippi State 27 Louisville 31

Bet: LOU +4.5
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Mississippi State 28 Louisville 38

California vs Illinois (CAL -6.5, 43.5) 4 PM

Cal won their first 4, lost their next 4, but won 3 of their last 4. They were 5-1 ATS away from home this season, but 2-4 ATS as a favorite. They only score 19.5 ppg which ranks 115th and rank 119th in yards per game. The illini are a streaking team as well winning their first 2, losing their next 4, winning their next 4 and losing their last 2. They had covered 6 in a row before falling to Northwestern in the finale. Offensively, they struggle as well, ranking 112th in yards per game and 112th on 3rd down. The Under is 4-2 in the Illini’s last 6 games is 8-4 on the season for Cal. Think one, if not both of these offenses struggle to get points. Final Score Prediction: Cal 23 Illinois 16 

Bet: Under 43.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Cal 35 Illinois 20

Florida vs Virginia (UF -14.5, 54.5) 8 PM

The Gators lost twice this season, a 7 point loss to Georgia and a 14 point loss to LSU. They actually led in the second half of the LSU game. They’ve won 14 of their last 16 dating back to last season. This team is good. They covered 6 of their last 7 and allowed 6 or less points in 5 games this season. Virginia turned it on late, winning 5 of their last 6 before getting thumped by Clemson. The Cavaliers only hope is Bryce Perkins. They allow the 11th most sacks in the nation and allow 7.9 yards per pass which ranks 97th. Florida’s 17th ranked passing offense will give the Cavs all they can handle and more. Final Score Prediction: Florida 38 Virginia 17 

Bet: FLA -14.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Florida 36 Virginia 28

Virginia Tech vs Kentucky (VT -2.5, 47) 12 PM

The Wildcats won 5 of their final 7 games, finishing their season impressively by beating rival Louisville 45-13. They allowed 14.1 ppg over that span while scoring 28.4 ppg, which includes being shut out by Georgia. However, their win against the Cardinals was the first against a team with a winning record, previously going 0-3. The Wildcats have covered 6 of their last 7 games. The Hokies have won bettors plenty of money as well, covering in 6 of their final 8 games, but are only 2-6 ATS as a favorite. Virginia Tech’s defense either shows up or it doesn’t, allowing 17 points or less 6 times while allowing 35 points or more 5 times. I think I’ll trust their defense here to show up for a bowl game, but Kentucky’s defense has been strong as well. Therefore, I’ll side with the under in this one. Final Score Prediction: Virginia Tech 20 Kentucky 17

Bet: Under 47
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Virginia Tech 30 Kentucky 37

Florida State vs Arizona State (ASU -3.5, 53.5) 2 PM

If you haven’t seen Jayden Daniels play, you are in for a treat. The freshman quarterback threw 17 TDs this season to only 2 interceptions and ran for 3 as well. He threw for 408 yards, 3 TDs and 0 INTs in their upset over Oregon a few weeks back. He is going to need that kind of performance, as 7 of their last 10 games have been decided by one possession. They are just 1-5 ATS over their final 6 games. However, the Seminoles struggled all season as well. They were just 1-5 SU and ATS against teams with winning records, and were just 4-8 ATS overall. They were only an underdog 4 times all season and were 1-3 ATS in those games and eventually leading to the firing of the head coach. I expect some big plays out of the Sun Devils passing game which ranks 24^th in yards per pass, while the Seminoles rank 118^th in passing yards allowed per game. You play to win the game, and the Sun Devils will win the game. Final Score Prediction: Florida State 23 Arizona State 30

Bet: ASU -3.5
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Florida State 14 Arizona State 20

Navy vs Kansas State (NAVY -2.5, 53) 3:45 PM

The Over is 7-3 in Navy’s last 10 games while the Under is 2-7-1 in Kansas State’s last 10 games. Navy’s offense ranks 10^th with 38 ppg while Kansas State’s defense ranks 27^th and allows 22.2 ppg. They are the best defense on 3^rd down conversions, allowing a first down just 26.4% of the time. However, Navy is number 1 in the country in rushing while Kansas State’s defense allows a 94^th ranked 4.8 yards per rush. These are the number 2 and number 3 best offenses inside the redzone while Kansas State’s defense ranks 129^th in the redzone. If these teams can get to the redzone, we should see plenty of scoring. Given Navy’s advantage on the ground, I’ll parlay these together. Final Score Prediction: Navy 35 Kansas State 23

Bet: NAVY ML/Over 53
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Navy 20 Kansas State 17

Wyoming vs Georgia State (WY -7, 47.5) 4:30 PM

This Georgia State team began their season by upsetting the Volunteers as 24.5 point underdogs. In fact, 5 of their 6 wins this season came as underdogs. However, they have lost 3 of their last 4 games, losing by 14, 29 and 28 in those 3 losses. They also lost by 47 earlier in the year to Western Michigan. Since their upset of Tennessee, they are just 1-4 away from home. Their defense allows 35.5 ppg which ranks 113^th and has given up 33 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games while Wyoming’s defense allows just 18 ppg which ranks 11^th. Wyoming’s defense will get them the win here, but the best value is on the Under. Wyoming’s offense has only scored 15.3 ppg over their last 4 games. The Under is 5-2 in Georgia State’s last 7 games and is 9-2 in Wyoming’s last 11 games and has hit in 6 straight. Final Score Prediction: Wyoming 27 Georgia State 13

Bet: WY ML/Under 47.5
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Wyoming 38 Georgia 17

Utah vs Texas (UTAH -7, 54.5) 7:30 PM

Early in the season, the Longhorns lost to LSU by 7 and to Oklahoma by 7. Since, they have gone 2-4 ATS including barely getting by Kansas with a 2 point win. They finished strong, beating rival Texas Tech by 25. Utah wanted a shot at the playoff, but lost by 22 to Oregon. Before that they had gone 8-0 SU and ATS and won those games by an average margin of victory of 29 ppg. Utah’s defense allows 14.3 ppg which ranks 6^th. However, in their 3 games against top 30 scoring offenses, they allowed 37 to Oregon (12^th), 13 to Washington State (13) and 30 to USC (30^th). Texas ranks 16^th with 35 ppg. However, the Texas defense allows 446.2 yards per game which ranks 101^st.  Utah’s offense, which ranks 11^th on 3^rd downs, should keep the ball moving and outscore the Longhorns. Final Score Prediction: Utah 35 Texas 23

Bet: UTAH -7
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Utah 10 Texas 38

Minnesota vs Auburn (AUB -7, 53.5) 1 PM

The Gophers began the season winning 9 straight games, but lost 2 of 3 down the stretch. The Tigers were impressive at time this season, but couldn’t complete upset wins at Florida, at LSU and vs Georgia. However, they were able to beat Oregon and Alabama, not to mention only losing to LSU by 3 in Baton Rouge. I think the Gophers have a lot to prove and a lot to play for here, but they were a huge benefactor of a soft schedule. Their win against Penn State at home was impressive, but their next best win was a home win against Illinois. Auburn is much more tested. Before allowing 45 points to Alabama, they had held their previous 11 opponents to 16.2 ppg and no team scored more than 24 points in that span. Final Score Prediction: Minnesota 23 Auburn 34

Bet: AUB -7
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Minnesota 31 Auburn 24

Michigan vs Alabama (ALA -7.5, 58.5) 1 PM

The Crimson Tide won 10 games this season by an average margin of victory of 36.1 ppg including 4 wins against bowl teams. They narrowly lost to LSU and Auburn by 5 and 3. So while Alabama is no longer the best team in the country, they are still one of the best teams in the country. The Wolverines big win came against Notre Dame, but otherwise struggled in big games. As an underdog, the Wolverines went 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS, losing by an average margin of 19 ppg. I’ll take Bama here, but I also like the over. The Over is 9-3 in Michigan’s 12 games this season including in 6 of their last 7 while the Over is 7-4 in Alabama’s last 11 games. The Crimson Tide have scored at least 35 points in every game and averaged 46.6 ppg. Final Score Prediction: Michigan 24 Alabama 49

Bet: ALA -7.5 & Over 58.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Michigan 16 Alabama 35

Wisconsin vs Oregon (WISC -3, 51.5) 5 PM

The Badgers covered 5 of their first 6 games, but were just 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS in their final 7 games. They allowed 4.8 ppg including 4 shutouts in their first 6 games. They have allowed 25.7 ppg in their last 7 games. Aside from the Ducks upset to Arizona State, their lone loss came on opening night against Auburn, a game they had in the bag. The Ducks have held 8 of their 13 opponents to 15 points or less. I’m siding with the Ducks in this one. Final Score Prediction: Wisconsin 19 Oregon 31

Bet: ORE +3
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Oregon 28 Wisconsin 27

Baylor vs Georgia (UGA -3.5, 42.5) 8:45 PM

The Bulldogs will be missing 10 players in this game for a variety of reasons, from injuries to NFL Draft prospects sitting out. If that doesn’t scream lack of motivation, I don’t know what does. The Bears are just two years removed from a 2 win season, and now get a bid to the Sugar Bowl. If that doesn’t scream motivation, I don’t know what does. They were 9-4 ATS this season, covering in each of their final 5 games. The Bulldogs were allowing 10.4 ppg before allowing 37 to LSU in the SEC Championship. The Under is 7-1 in Georgia’s last 8 games. I’m leaning Baylor, and I’m leaning the Under, so I’ll fade both. Final Score Prediction: Baylor 19 Georgia 27

Bet: UGA -3.5
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Baylor 14 Georgia 26

Cincinnati vs Boston College (CIN -7.5, 54.5) 3 PM

The Eagles rank 6th in the country with 260.3 rushing yards per game. The only problem is that leading rusher and NFL hopeful AJ Dillon, who ran for 1685 yards and 14 TDs this season, has elected to sit this one out. The Bearcats defense allows only 3.7 yards per carry, as is, so it might be tough going for the Eagles today. Dennis Grosel has done a fine job filling in for injured quarterback Anthony Brown, going 3-3 as a starter, but has only completed 48.6 % of his passes. Pair all this with the fact the Eagles defense is trash, ranking 123rd in yards per game, 114th on 3rd down defense, 102nd in points allowed per game and 107th in redzone defense, the Bearcats are the easy choice in this one. Final Score Prediction: Cincinnati 34 Boston College 13

Bet: CIN -7.5
Confidence: 4 Units
Result: Cincinnati 38 Boston College 6

Indiana vs Tennessee (TEN -2.5, 54.5) 7 PM

It’s going to be a little tough for me to be objective in this one, especially with a Volunteer team that doesn’t do anything in particular that stands out. Offensively, they rank 103rd in ppg, 87th in rushing and 68th in passing. Defensively, they are a little better, ranking 38th in ppg allowed, 43rd against the run and 25th against the pass. But they have come a long way since losing 5 of their first 7 games. They have won 5 in a row and have covered the spread in 6 of their last 7. The Hoosiers are seeking their first 9 win season since 1967. That won’t be easy, as the Volunteer defense has allowed more than 21 points just once (35 at Alabama) in their last 7 games. With Hoosiers’ offense coordinator Kalen DeBoer taking the Fresno State head coaching position, it might be tough for the Hoosiers offense to stay on the field. I’m leaning Tennessee, but instead will side with the Under in this one, as I think the Vols dictate the pace and grind one out. Final Score Prediction: Tennessee 24 Indiana 21

Bet: Under 54.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Tennessee 23 Indiana 22

Ohio vs Nevada (OH -10, 60) 3:30 PM

Before losing at home in overtime by 3, Nevada’s losses had been much more severe. In their other 4 losses, they lost by an average of 44 points per loss! Their average margin of victory in their 7 wins is 7.1. They have allowed at least 28 points or more in 6 of their last 8 games, while the Bobcats have scored at least  34 points in 6 of their last 7 games.  Nevada’s offense won’t be able to keep up with the Bobcats offense, as they average just 21.5 ppg which ranks 105th. They also rank 102nd in yards per game, 97th on 3rd down, 113th in rushing yards per game, 85th in turnover margin and 121st in penalties per game. Advantage Bobcats. Final Score Prediction: Ohio 38 Nevada 21 

Bet: OH -10 
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Ohio 30 Nevada 21

Southern Mississippi vs Tulane (TUL -7.5, 56.5) 11:30 PM

Tulane began the season 5-1, but lost 5 of their next 6 games. As a favorite this season, they are 6-1 ATS and average 41.1 ppg. They are 9th in the country with 245.5 rushing yards per game. However, they will be facing a tough Southern Mississippi run defense that ranks 17th. They also rank 12th on 3rd down defense. I think this game comes down to who can make the least amount of mistakes. Tulane ranks 124th in penalties per game while Southern Mississippi ranks 117th in turnover margin. Expect to see some short fields, and plenty of pace, as Tulane runs the 17th most plays per game, so I’ll side with the Over. The Green Wave allowed 32.7 ppg over their past 6 games. Final Score Prediction: Southern Mississippi 28 Tulane 38

Bet: Over 56.5
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Southern Mississippi 13 Tulane 30

Bowls: 18-22
All-Time Record: 45-54 (45.5%)

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (SF -3, 47) 8:20 PM

The loser of this game will have to travel to Philadelphia or Dallas next weekend, so a lot is at stake. The Seahawks have lost 2 of their last 3, with their one win barely escaping against a terrible Panthers team. The 49ers haven’t looked great as of late either, losing 2 of their last 4 and somehow winning last week against the Rams. The defense has allowed 35.3 ppg over their last 3 games. The Seahawks have allowed at least 24 points in each of their last 4 games, allowing an average of 27.3 ppg over that span. I lean the Niners but won’t bet against Wilson at home in primetime. So I’ll go with the over. Final Score Prediction: 49ers 30 Seahawks 24

Bet: Over 47
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: 49ers 26 Seahawks 21

Today’s Record: 0-0
All-Time Record: 19-27 (41.3%)

Boston Celtics @ Toronto Raptors (BOS -2.5, 213.5) 12:10 PM

The Raptors have lost 5 of their last 6 games against teams with winning records. The Heat have held 5 of their last 8 opponents under 100 points and have allowed an average of 100.3 ppg over that span. The Celtics will shut down the Raptors to start off our Christmas slate.

Bet: BOS -2.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Celtics 118 Raptors 102

Milwaukee Bucks @ Philadelphia 76ers (PHI -0.5, 222.5) 2:40 PM

The 76ers allow 104.9 ppg which ranks 3^rd in the league. However, they allowed 108 points or more in 7 straight games and now play the best offense in the league. Give me the Bucks as underdogs all day.

Bet: MIL +0.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Bucks 109 76ers 121

Houston Rockets @ Golden State Warriors (HOU -10, 228.5) 5:10 PM

The Rockets have won 6 of their last 7 games and have covered in 3 straight. However, the Rockets are just 2-6 ATS as double digit favorites. As bad as the Warriors have been, they are 5-3 ATS as double digit underdogs. The Warriors have won 2 in a row for the first time all season. I’m still not backing this Warriors team. Instead I’ll take the over, because the Rockets have scored 120 ppg over their last 6 games and James Harden should have a Christmas day feast.

Bet: Over 228.5
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Rockets 104 Warriors 116

LA Clippers @ LA Lakers (LAC -1.5, 223.5) 8:10 PM

The Lakers started 24-3, but have lost 3 straight. Meanwhile the Clippers have lost 3 of their last 5 games. The Clippers are 8-1 SU after a straight up loss. The Lakers have given up 120 points or more in 3 games this season, including giving up 128 to Denver in their last game. In their previous 2 matchups following this performance, they allowed 108 and 87. I think they sure up their defense I try to grind out a low scoring, close game. The offense has only scored 103.3 ppg over their last 6 games.

Bet: Under 223.5
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Clipper 111 Lakers 106

New Orleans Pelicans @ Denver Nuggets (DEN -9.5, 219.5) 10:40 PM

The Nuggets have won 7 in a row by an average margin of victory of 10.4. While the Pelicans have won 2 of their last 3 games, they lost 13 in a row prior to that. This team still lost to the Warriors 5 days ago and now get a hot Nuggets team. I’ll take the home team to pound the Pelicans.

Bet: DEN -9.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Pelicans 112 Nuggets 100

Today’s Record: 2-3
All-Time Record: 41-40 (50.6%)

UCF @ Marshall (UCF -15.5, 59) 2:30 PM

The Knights lost 3 games this season, a huge downgrade from their previous two seasons in which they had none and won a “National Championship.” Still a very good team that averaged 41.3 ppg which ranks 6^th. However, they are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Meanwhile, Marshall won 6 of their last 7 games, including beating 4 bowl teams in the span. Marshall’s defense has greatly improved late in season. They allowed an average of 26.6 ppg over their first 7 games, but have held their last 5 opponents to 18.3 ppg. I think they do enough to keep this within the number. Final Score Prediction: UCF 38 Marshall 27

Bet: MAR +15.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: UCF 48 Marshall 25

BYU vs Hawaii (BYU -2.5, 64) 8 PM

The Cougars are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss while Hawaii has gone 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games against a team with a winning record and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games. BYU has not allowed more than 25 points in their last 6 games. I think their defense should keep Hawaii in check and get the win. Final Score Prediction: BYU 34 Hawaii 27

Bet: BYU -2.5
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Hawaii 38 BYU 34

Louisiana Tech vs Miami (MIA -7, 49) 4 PM

Although the Bulldogs averaged 52 points over a 4 game stretch in the middle of the season, the offense fluttered down the stretch, scoring 10 and 14 points against Marshall and UAB respectively. The Hurricanes defense allows 323.3 yards per game which ranks 15^th and only 114.3 rush yards per game which ranks 14^th. Given the fact the Bulldogs rank 113^th in passes per game, this will be a tough adjustment. The Hurricanes offense is horrible too, ranking 120^th in rushing yards per game, 97^th in total yards per game and last of qualifying 130 teams on 3^rd down. I don’t like either of these teams, so I’ll side with the under. Final Score Prediction: Louisiana Tech 17 Miami 24

Bet: Under 49
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Louisiana Tech 14 Miami 0

Pittsburgh vs Eastern Michigan (PIT -13, 49) 8 PM

Return of the MACtion as the Eagles try to take down the Panthers. The Panthers had covered in 7 of 9 games, but failed to cover in their final two games. The Eagles on the other hand have been involved in 5 games decided by 20 points or more, being on the wrong side of those games in 3 of those 5. The Eagles rank 109^th on 3^rd down defense and 110^th is rushing yards allowed per game. But the story here isn’t about the defense, but the offenses. The Eagles rank 100^th in redzone offense and 108^th in rushing yards per game. Good luck passing against Pitts front 7 that ranks 3^rd in sack percentage. The Panthers rank 104^th in redzone offense and119th in rushing yards per game. Good luck passing as they rank 108^th is yards per pass. The Panthers have the advantage here, but they have scored 20 points just once in their last 5 games, so I’ll lean the Under. The Under is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 bowl games as a favorite and is 6-1 in Panthers last 7 non-conference games. Final Score Prediction: Pittsburgh 26 Eastern Michigan 16

Bet: Under 49
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Pittsburgh 34 Eastern Michigan 30

North Carolina vs Temple (UNC -6.5, 54.5) 12 PM

The Owls covered in each of their final 4 games on the season, and held their opponents to 15 ppg during that span. They have the 5^th best redzone defense in the country. As an underdog, the Owls are 5-2 ATS this season including 4 SU wins. They have also covered in 5 of their last 7 non-conference games. The Tar Heels on the other hand are just 2-5 ATS against teams with winning records and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games. Temple has a shot to win outright, so I’ll gladly take the points. Final Score Prediction: North Carolina 27 Temple 24

Bet: TEM +6.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: North Carolina 55 Temple 13

Michigan State vs Wake Forest (MSU -4, 50) 3:20 PM

The Spartans had a disappointing season. After starting 4-1, the Spartans dropped their next 5 games, but won their final two to become bowl eligible. However, 4 of their 6 losses this season came against top 14 teams. They were 6-2 against all other schools. They averaged 29.6 points against unranked teams and just 6.8 ppg against ranked teams. They allowed 16 ppg against unranked teams and 36 ppg against ranked teams. Although the Demon Decons went 8-4 this season, they were just 1-3 against teams with winning records. Michigan State’s defense that allows 320.1 yards per game ranks 13^th and should be able to get enough stops to cover. Final Score Prediction: Michigan State 24 Wake Forest 17

Bet: MSU -4
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Michigan State 27 Wake Forest 21

Oklahoma State vs Texas A&M (TA&M -4, 55) 6:45 PM

These are two very similarly matched teams. I’ve been back and forth, so I’ll side with the over here. Both teams average over 30 points a game The Cowboys have scored at least 30 in 8 of their 12 games while the Aggies have scored at least 30 in 6 of the 7 games they were favored. Final Score Prediction: Oklahoma State 30 Texas A&M 33

Bet: Over 55
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Oklahoma State 21 Texas A&M 24

Washington State vs Air Force (AF -2.5, 71) 10:15 PM

Air Force finished the season with 7 straight wins and covering in 5 of those games on their way to a 10-2 record. They rank 2nd is rush yards per games, 2nd on 3rd down percentage, 1st in penalties per game and oh yeah, they haven’t missed a FG this season. The Cougars are 6-6, lost 5 of 6 games at one point and have not beaten a team with a winning record. They have lost their last 5 games away from home, and think Air Force should take this one as well. Final Score Prediction: Washington State 20 Air Force 41

Bet: AF -2.5
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Washington State 21 Air Force 31

USC vs Iowa (IOWA -2, 52.5) 8 PM

Another toss up game here. Both teams won 5 of their last 6 games. USC scored at least 27 points in all but 2 games this season and now they get the 5^th best scoring defense in the country. I’ll take the better conference tested team here in the Hawkeyes. USC has gone 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog while Iowa has gone 6-2 ATS in non conference games. Final Score Prediction: USC 27 Iowa 30

Bet: IOWA -2
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: USC 24 Iowa 49

Memphis vs Penn State (PSU -7, 60.5) 12 PM

The Cotton Bowl has been decided by less than 8 points just once since 2007 and the lower ranked team has won just twice since 2000. Does that bode well for the Nitty Lions? Memphis no doubt has one of the best offenses in the country. However, in their 5 games against top 60 scoring defenses, they scored 35 points or less in each game averaging 28.2 ppg. In all other 8 games, they scored at least 42 points and averaged 48.3 ppg. This Nitty Lions defense is the toughest Memphis will play all season, allowing an average of 14.7 ppg which ranks 7^th. The redzone will make a difference here as Penn State’s offense ranks 28^th in the redzone while Memphis’ defense ranks 110^th. Subsequently, Memphis’ offense ranks 74^th in the redzone while Penn State’s defense ranks 36^th. There’s your advantage. Final Score Prediction: Memphis 20 Penn State 34

Bet: PSU -7
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Memphis 39 Penn State 53

Notre Dame vs Iowa State (ND -3.5, 53.5) 12 PM

This is the first ever meeting between these two schools, so there will be no shortage of motivation for either side. The Irish have won 5 in a row and have score 40+ in three straight games for the first time in their history. The covered in each of their final 4 games. The Cyclones lost 3 of their last 5 games and are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games. Expect the Cyclones to try and air it out as they rank 116^th in rushes per game and 16^th in passes per game. The problem, however, is the Irish have one of the best secondaries in the league, allowing only 163.7 passing yards per game which is 3^rd best in the country. While the Cyclones rank 14^th in yards per game, they rank 76^th on third downs while Notre Dame’s defense ranks 18^th. Final Score Prediction: Notre Dame 31 Iowa State 20

Bet: ND -3.5
Confidence: 4 Units
Result: Notre Dame 33 Iowa State 9

Oklahoma vs LSU (LSU -14, 76) 4 PM

5 of the last 6 games for the Sooners have been decided by one possession. They have covered in just 2 of their last 9 games. However, the defense has improved this season, allowing 30+ just 3 times in their last 12 games. LSU has given up 4 such games over their last 12 games. Joe Burrow’s been the x factor, so I like LSU, but I’ll side with the under in this one. The Under is 4-0 in the Sooner’s last 4 games while LSU’s defense has allowed only 12.3 ppg over their last 3 games. Final Score Prediction: Oklahoma 24 LSU 41

Bet: Under 76

Confidence: 1 Unit

Result: Oklahoma 28 LSU 63

Clemson vs Ohio State (CLEM -2.5, 62.5) 8 PM

I won’t say anything bad about either team here. These are two power houses and we are in for a treat. The Buckeyes won their first 9 games by an average margin of victory of 42.4 ppg and going 8-1 ATS. However, in their last 4 games, they are “only” destroying their opponents by 22 ppg and are 1-3 ATS. Clemson “only” crushed their first 5 opponents by 26 ppg and went 3-2 ATS. But in their final 8 games, they won by an average of 42.1 ppg and went 7-1 ATS with their only non cover against Wofford in which they won by 45 and didn’t cover the 48.5 point spread. They have scored 52 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games and have held their 12 of their 13 opponents to 17 points or less! There’s not much to say here, except that I think Clemson may feel a little more disrespected and will come out fired up. Justin Fields a bit shaken up and I think that’s enough to give the Tigers an edge here. Final Score Prediction: Clemson 37 Ohio State 23

Bet: CLEM -2.5
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Clemson 29 Ohio State 23

Bowl Record: 11-11
All-Time Record: 38-43 (46.9%)

Indiana vs Notre Dame (IU -3, 142) 12 PM

The Hoosiers struggled to get passed the Cornhuskers at home in their last matchup and now get the Irish in the Crossroads Classic. Despite their 8-3 record, the Irish have no looked great. They have a home loss to Boston College and needed overtime to beat Toledo at home a few weeks ago. The rank 260^th in shooting percentage compared to IU who is ranked 16^th. I think the Hoosiers hit more shots late and once again get to the line to seal the win.

Bet: IU -3
Confidence; 2 Units
Result: Indiana 62 Notre Dame 60

Texas @ Providence (PROV -1, 133.5) 2 PM

We will keep going against the Friars as long as they let us. They just lost by 32 at home to the Gators. They have failed to cover in 9 of their last 10 games including 7 straight. Now the 9-1 Longhorns and winners of five straight come in to town and are an underdog? This spread is wrong and the Longhorns will cruise.

Bet: TEX +1
Confidence: 4 Units
Result: Texas 48 Providence 70

Purdue vs Butler (BUT -1.5, 117.5) 2:30 PM

In game two of the Crossroads classic are two teams out to prove a point and gain some respect. The Boilermakers have been up and down all season, as characterized by their 29 point home win against 5^th ranked Virginia and their 14 point home loss to unranked Nebraska. Butler has just one loss on the season, a 1 point road loss to Baylor. They are 8-3 ATS this season and are outperforming Vegas expectations. Defensively, they are holding teams to 54.5 ppg which ranks 3^rd in the country. That’s good enough for me.

Bet: BUT -1.5
Confidence 1 Unit
Result: Butler 70 Purdue 61

Today’s Record: 1-2
All-Time Record: 28-19 (59.6%)

Houston Texans @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (HOU -3, 50) 1 PM

The Bucs have won 4 in a row and 5 of their last 6 games, but will be shorthanded as both top wide outs, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, are out with injuries. Their secondary has been horrible all season long, allowing the 3^rd most passing yards per game. Watson and Hopkins should feast on this great matchup. Despite covering 3 of their last 4, the Bucs are just 1-5-1 ATS against teams with winning records. I would have taken the Texans even with the Bucs at full strength, but I think Hopkins will prove too much and the Texans will leave this one a winner. Final Score: Texans 34 Buccaneers 23

Bet: HOU -3
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Texans 23 Buccaneers 20

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (NE -6.5, 37) 4:30 PM

Based on how these teams have been playing over the last couple months, this spread somewhat surprised me. However, this is still Tom Brady and Foxboro in December. Will Josh Allen be up for this tough task? I’ll probably put some money on the Bills, but there is always that strange possibility with the Pats to get a blocked punt or some weird special teams play to get the cover. Instead, there is a trend here that gives us a lot of value. The under is 10-0 when Josh Allen is a road underdog. This is McDermott’s game plan, to eliminate mistakes, trust the defense, and grind out a low scoring game. This probably fits in to Belichick’s game plan as well with how poorly the offense has been, and especially because Edelman is banged up. The under is 11-3 in Bills games this season, and 2 of the overs both came against the Dolphins. With two of the best defenses going at it in cold weather, I’ll hammer the under. Final Score Prediction: Bills 12 Patriots 17

Bet: Under 37
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Bills 17 Patriots 24

Today’s Record: 0-1
All-Time Record: 19-27 (41.3%)

12/20

Buffalo @ Charlotte (BUF -6.5, 58) 2 PM

The Bulls have won 5 of their last 6 and would have six in a row if it weren’t for blowing a 21 point fourth quarter lead to Kent State. They have scored at least 43 points in 4 of their last 5 games. That’s in large part because they rank 8^th in rushing yards per game thanks to sophomore running back, Jaret Patterson who has 1,626 rushing yards and 17 TDs on the season. Backup sophomore running back Kevin Marks has 1,008 rushing yards and 8 TDs. Meanwhile, Charlotte allows 5 yard per carry ranking 108^th out of 130 in the nation. They have won 5 straight, but are just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS against bowl teams this season. The Bulls literally run away with this one. Final Score Prediction: Buffalo 38 Charlotte 20

Bet: BUF -6.5
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Buffalo 31 Charlotte 9

Utah State @ Kent State (UTAHST -6 ,65) 7:30 PM

The Golden Flashes needed three straight wins to become bowl eligible. Down 21 in the fourth quarter to Buffalo, they turned their season around and completed the task. The Aggies on the other hand won 3 of their last 4 games.  However, they finished 3-3 in their last 6 games with losses of 24, 28 and 35 in their three losses. Kent State has covered 6 of their last 7 overall and are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog and each of their last 6 games have been decided by one possession.  It’s going to  be hard to bet on two MAC teams on the same day so my confidence here is low. Final Score Prediction: Utah State 34 Kent State 31

Bet: KENTST +6
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Utah State 41 Kent State 51

12/21

Central Michigan @ San Diego State (SDST -3.5, 41) 2 PM

The Under has hit in 11 of the Aztec’s 12 games this season and in 20 of their last 25 overall dating back to last season. They allow 14 ppg which ranks 5^th in the country and allow only 300.9 yards per game which ranks 9^th. Central Michigan’s defense is underrated, allowing only 360.8 yards per game which ranks 35^th and rank 25^th in 3^rd down defense. The Aztecs offense is weak, scoring 20.2 ppg which ranks 112^th which is surprising because they rank 2^nd in the country in turnover margin. These have been the totals in each of the last 5 Aztec games: 37, 30, 24, 25, 16. The total has been 41 points or under in all but 2 games this season and the highest it got was 48. Final Score Prediction: Central Michigan 17 San Diego State 20

Bet: Under 41
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Central Michigan 11 San Diego State 48

Liberty @ Georgia Southern (GASO -5, 60) 2:30 PM

The quarterbacks on these teams are two of the most careful quarterbacks in college football. On Liberty’s side is senior quarterback Stephen Calvert. He went 295 passes this season without throwing an interception from September 7 to November 23^rd. He’s thrown 36 TD and 5 INT this season while passing for 281.6 ppg which ranks 26^th. On the Georgia Southern side is junior quarterback Shai Werts who has not thrown an interception since 2017. Over the past two seasons, he has thrown 19 TDs and 0 INTs. This is largely because they rank 5^th in rushes per game. Because of the lack of turnovers in this game, paired with the fact Georgia Southern runs the snot out of the ball, not to mention they rank 117^th on 3^rd down conversions, I expect punts and long, extended drives with long field positions. Final Score Prediction: Liberty 23 Georgia Southern 30

Bet: Under 60
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Liberty 23 Georgia Southern 16

SMU @ Florida Atlantic (SMU -3.5, 70.5) 3:30 PM

These are two of the most prolific offenses in the country. SMU scores 43.0 ppg which ranks 5^th while FAU scores 34.7 ppg which ranks 19^th. However, there is value on the under. FAU’s defense allows 23.6 ppg which ranks 35^th and while the first 7 games resulted in an over, 3 of the last 5 SMU games have hit the under. The under is 5-0 after going over in the previous FAU game, which it did in their regular season finale. However, SMU has scored 34 points or more in every game this season while FAU has scored 31 points or more in 10 of their last 11 games, so betting the under when these two face off is too scary. Instead, I’ll side with SMU who still has their coach from their season. FAU is on to next season already. Final Score Prediction: SMU 37 Florida Atlantic 31

Bet: SMU -3.5
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: SMU 28 FAU 52

Florida International @ Arkansas State (ARKST -2.5, 63) 5:30 PM

FIU’s weakness is their rush defense. They allow 210.5 rushing yards per game which ranks 109^th. However, Arkansas State’s strength on offense is their passing offense which ranks 15^th in yards per game and 16^th in completion percentage. FIU’s pass defense only allows 174.4 yard per game which ranks 7^th in the country. Arkansas State will need to redefine their team in order to exploit FIU. Furthermore, Arkansas State’s defense will struggle here. They allow 35.5 ppg (112^th), 477.9 yards per game (116^th) and 224.2 rushing yards per game (117^th). Additionally, they make a lot of mistakes, ranking 115^th in penalties per game and 102^nd in turnovers per game. FIU has won 4 in a row after a straight up loss and will make it 5 with this bowl victory. Final Score Prediction: FIU 34 Arkansas State 28

Bet: FIU +2.5
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: FIU 26 Arkansas State 34

Boise State @ Washington (WASH -4, 49.5) 7:30 PM

Chris Peterson wraps up his six year tenure at Washington by facing off against his former team in his last bowl game as a head coach. I’ll take the over on statue of liberty plays here. In all seriousness, this could be the best game of the bowl season. The Huskies defense has been up and down this season. The first five games of the season, the Huskies allowed 17.4 ppg. Then, over a three game stretch, they allowed 31.7 ppg, two of those against PAC12 finalists Oregon and Utah. Then they held the final three opponents on their schedule to just 13.3 ppg including holding the top scoring offense in the PAC12, Washington State, to only 13 points. Meanwhile, Boise State’s had a 3 game stretch in the middle of their season where they allowed 35.7 ppg. In their other 10 games this season, they only allow 16.1 ppg. Both defenses show up and keep this below the number. Final Score: Boise State 21 Washington 24

Bet: Under 49.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Boise State 7 Washington 38

Appalachian State @ UAB (APPST -16.5, 48) 9 PM

The Mountaineers of Appalachian State are 12-1 this season, and are one 3 point loss to Georgia Southern from being undefeated. In their 10 wins this season, their average margin of victory is 25 points per win. The Blazers are 9-4 this season against weak competition. They have failed to cover in 4 of their last 6 games overall. In their 4 losses this season, they lost by an average margin of 27 points per loss. They are coming off a 49-6 beating in their final game against FAU and should expect another beat down in their bowl game.

Bet: APPST -16.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: App State 31 UAB 17

Bowl Record: 4-4
All-Time Record: 31-36 (46.3%)

Los Angeles Lakers @ Indiana Pacers (LAL -4, 211) 7:10 PM

The Lakers have now won 13 straight road games. Their offense is really coming to form, scoring 118.2 ppg over their last 6 games. Meanwhile, the Pacers have scored 113.3 ppg over their last 6 home games. I think there’s enough offense fire power here to hit the over. Probably add in the Lakers to win. Anthony Davis neutralizes Sabonis, which takes away a huge factor for the Pacers.

Bet: Over 211/LAL ML
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Lakers 102 Pacers 105

Brooklyn Nets @ New Orleans Pelicans (BKN -2, 229.5) 8:10 PM

The Pelicans are currently on a 12 game losing streak and are only 1-11 ATS in those games. The Nets have won 7 of their last 8 against teams with losing records and are coming off an impressive 20 point victory against the 76ers. They are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 overall and should have no problem covering this small spread.

Bet: BKN -2
Confidence: 4 Units
Result:  Nets 108 Pelicans 101 OT

Today’s Record: 1-1
All-Time Record: 39-37 (51.3%)

Florida vs Providence (FLA -5, 132) 7 PM

The Friars have failed to cover in 6 straight and in 8 of their last 9 overall. They have 4 straight up losses as favorites of 8 points or more. While the Gators have overall been disappointing this season, they have played much tougher competition and should out talent a struggle Providence team.

Bet: FLA -5
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Florida 83 Providence 51

Oklahoma @ Creighton (CRE -3, 153) 8:30 PM

The Sooners are playing in their third straight road game. In the previous two, they needed a 2^nd half comeback to erase a 10 point deficit to North Texas and lost by 5 to Wichita State after blowing an 8 point 2^nd half lead. The Bluejays are 7-0 at home and have a margin of victory of 17.6 ppg. I think home court advantage is huge here and Creighton comes away with the W.

Bet: CRE -3
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Oklahoma 73 Creighton 83

Purdue @ Ohio (PUR -8, 127) 9 PM

Ohio has won 4 in a row. However, against power 5 opponents, they are 0-3 with losses  to Villanove by 24, Baylor by 23 and Utah by 14. Purdue’s coming off a tough home loss to the Cornhuskers which I think refocuses them. Their previous loss to the Seminoles was followed up by a 29 point victory against 5^th ranked Virginia, so an 8 point spread against a MAC team shouldn’t be an issue.

Bet: PUR -8
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Purdue 69 Ohio 51

Today’s Record: 3-0
All-Time Record: 27-17 (61.4%)