Kentucky @ South Carolina (UK -5.5, 135.5) 6:30 PM

The Wildcats suffered two losses in Vegas to Utah and Ohio State back in December. But they have won 4 straight now by an average margin of victory of 9.5 ppg. This will only be their 2^nd true road game of the season, with their first coming last week at Georgia, a Wildcats 9 point win. The Gamecocks have struggled at home this season, going 2-4 SU and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games. They are currently on a 3 game losing streak and are just 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games overall. The Wildcats smallest margin of victory this season was 7 and that was against 15^th ranked Michigan State, so unless you think the Gamecocks can pull off an upset, which I don’t, I would lay the points.

Bet: UK -5.5
Confidence: 4 Units
Result: Kentucky 78 South Carolina 81

Boston College @ Syracuse (SYR -11, 136.5) 6:30 PM

The Eagles have won 5 of their last 7 games, including upset victories over Notre Dame and Virginia. The problem is that 6 of their 7 losses on the season are by double digits including Saturday’s 19 point home loss to Georgia Tech. However, the Orange have been wildly over valued by Vegas this season. Despite coming off an upset win in Virginia, they are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games overall and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games.

Bet: BC +11
Confidence 2 Units
Result: Boston College 50 Syracuse 76

Iowa State @ Baylor (BAY -9, 137.5) 8 PM

This is only the Cyclones 3^rd true road game this season. They did have a three game stint in the Bahamas and are just 1-4 SU away from home this season. Against Top 25 teams, they are 1-4 SU and ATS. They are also 2-5 ATS following a SU win. The Bears are now ranked 3^rd after two huge road victories at Texas Tech and at Kansas last week. They are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games. The Cyclones couldn’t handle Kansas, losing by 26, and this Baylor team is even better.

Bet: BAY -9
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Iowa State 55 Baylor 68

Auburn @ Alabama (AUB -1.5, 159) 9 PM

This is one we are actually going to bet against the trends. Alabama is 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games and 12-3 ATS overall this season. They are 5-1 ATS at home. However, they are still losing their share of games. They have a 14 point loss to Rhode Island, 15 point loss to Iowa State, 6 point loss to Florida and a 9 point loss to Kentucky. Now they play a rival who has not lost a game all season. Auburn has covered in 3 of their last 4 and have won 4 of their last 5 games by double digits. Go Tigahs.

Bet: AUB -1.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Auburn 64 Alabama 83

Wichita State @ Temple (WS -4.5, 137) 9 PM

The Shockers are shocking people again this season, going 15-1 with their lone loss to West Virginia. They are currently on a 9 game winning steak 6-3 ATS and have beaten teams such as Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, VCU and Memphis. Meanwhile, the Owls have really struggled since the calander turned to 2020, losing 3 straight by an average of 14.7 points per loss. They are just 2-5 ATS at home this season. 14 of the Shcokers 15 wins have been by 5 points or more.

Bet: WS -4.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Wichita State 53 Temple 65

Stanford @ UCLA (UCLA -1, 133) 10 PM

The Cardinals have won 7 of their last 8 games and are 14-2 on the season. They are 12-4 ATS this season and have skyrocketed themselves into the Top 25. The Bruins have lost 5 of their last 6 games and are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games at home. Stanford is one of the top teams in the Pac-12 this season and should not have any problem putting away the Bruins.

Bet: STAN +1
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Stanford 74 UCLA 59

Today’s Record: 2-4
All-Time Record: 32-23 (58.2%)

San Diego State @ Fresno State (SDST -7, 126.5) 11 PM

San Diego State has won 15 of their 17 games this season by 9+ points. They 7-0 SU and ATS  as an underdog or a single digit favorite. Fresno State is 5-9 ATS in their last 14 and just 2-4 ATS at home. The Aztecs allows only 57.6 ppg which ranks 5th while the Bulldogs rank 218th in scoring offense. I like the Aztecs BIG. 

Bet: SDST -7
Confidence: 5 Units
Result: San Diego State 64 Fresno State 55

Today’s Record: 1-0
All-Time Record: 30-19 (61.2%)

Clemson Tigers vs LSU Tigers (LSU -5, 67) 8 PM

There are a million reasons to like the Tigers tonight. In fact, that’s who I would bet on.

Reasons to bet Clemson: 14-0. Average margin of victory 31.3 points per win. 11-3 ATS and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games. #4 in scoring offense. #1 in scoring defense. #15 on 3^rd down offense. #13 on 3^rd down defense. #7 in turnover margin. Trevor Lawrence has won 25 straight games and hasn’t lost since high school. He hasn’t thrown an interception in 7 straight games. His 2 TD passes against Ohio State was his lowest since September. The defense has not allowed more than 23 points in any game this season. Dating back to September of 2018, the defense has allowed 30+ points just once.

Reasons to bet LSU: 14-0. Average margin of victory 27.2 points per win. 6-2 ATS against teams with winning records.  #1 in scoring offense. #4 on 3^rd down offense. #8 on 3^rd down defense. #1 in completion percentage. They just beat the #5 ranked team by 27 and the #4 ranked team by 35. Joe Burrow is an unstoppable monster who has thrown for at least 320 yards and 3 TDs in all but 2 games this season. His lowest completion percentage in a game this season is 71.1%. He threw for 5 TDs and 344 yards in that game. Oh, and they are playing in their backyard in New Orleans.

I think I have to lean with Coach O and Bengal’s Burrow in this one. Something is special about that team, and I just think they have a swagger that can’t be stopped right now.

Both these defenses have played great lately, but neither team has played an opposing offense like they will see tonight. LSU has 46 or more points in 5 of their last 6 games while Clemson has scored 52 or more points in 5 of their last 7 games.

Final Score Prediction: Clemson Tigers 31 LSU Tigers 45

Bet: LSU -5
Over 67
Confidence: 2 Units
Result:

*Bonus Prop Bets:

These quarterbacks will display greatness tonight. Bet Over 6.5 passing TD combined at an odds boost of +140. Trever Lawrence’s TD total at 2.5 is too low. Last week, he broke a streak of 8 straight games with 3 TDs. Burrow’s attempts total is at 39.5, and I think this is too high. Clemson can control clock with Etienne and Burrow’s only thrown 40 plus passes twice this season.

Bets: Over Combined 6.5 Passing TDs
Trevor Lawrence Over 2.5 TD Passes
Joe Burrow Under 39.5 Passing Attempts

Bowls: 18-23
All-Time Record: 45-55 (45%)

Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs (KC -10, 50.5) 3:05 PM

This is the second matchup this season between these two teams, the first resulting in a 31-24 win for the Texans in Arrowhead. The Texans rallied from down 17-3 in the first half to get the win. Now they enter as 10 point underdogs, coming off a comeback win against the Bills. The Texans are 6-3 ATS as underdogs while the Chiefs are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games. The Chiefs played 6 games this season against playoff teams and they were 3-3 ATS and their biggest win was a 7 point victory against New England. The Texans are 5-1 ATS against playoff teams, and I think this spread is just too high. Final Score Prediction: Texans 27 Chiefs 34

Bet: HOU +10
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Texans 31 Chiefs 51

*Bonus Prop Bets

Tyreek Hill has only scored a touchdown in 1 of his last 7 games. Travis Kelce only has 1 receiving touchdown in his last 6 games. Damien Williams, however, has a touchdown in 4 of his last 6 games. He’s healthy, McCoy isn’t really in the picture anymore, I like Damien Williams to score the first touchdown either running or receiving.

Patrick Mahome’s passing total is set at 299.5 yards. However, he has thrown for 283 yards or less in 5 of his last 6 games. He threw for 273 the first time these teams played, and with a healthy Damien Williams, I don’t think he gets there again.

Some really poor odds for this one, but no way Duke Johnson doesn’t get 2.5 catches today. He has hit 3 catches in 4 of his last 6 games, and they will need to rely on him in this kind of game. I expect 5  + from him so I will swallow the bad odds.

Bets: Damien Williams First TD Scorer
Patrick Mahomes Under 299.5 Passing Yards
Duke Johnson Over 2.5 Receptions

Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay Packers (GB -4, 45.5) 6:40 PM

The Packers are 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS at home this season. The Seahawks are 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS on the road and 4-1 ATS as a road underdog. What gives? The Under is 7-1 in the Packer’s last 8 games and 3-9 vs NFC teams while the Under is 2-4-1 in the Seahawk’s last 7 games. The Seahawks have scored 21 points or less in 5 of their last 7 games while the Packer’s have allowed 20 points or less in 6 of their last 7. Seahawks Under 20.5 points looks good and so does an odds boost on the Under and Packers moneyline. Final Score Prediction: Seahawks 16 Packers 22

Bet: Seahawks Under 20.5 Points
Under 44.5/GB ML
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Seahawks 23 Packers 28

The Seahawks allowed 18 rushing touchdowns this season, 2nd worst in the league. Green Bay allowed 15 rushing touchdowns which was 4^th worst in the league. Marshawn Lynch got every redzone carry in the last 2 weeks when they weren’t getting delay of games. Fire up both Lynch and Jones as first touchdown scorers and any time scorers.

The Seahawks give up rushing touchdowns, so it makes sense they rank 6^th best in passing touchdowns allowed. Aaron Rodgers has only thrown multiple touchdowns in 2 of his last 8 games. Plus his family hates him. Fire up the under 1.5 passing touchdowns for Danica’s boyfriend.

Jimmy Graham revenge game! Ok, he only has 11 catches in the last 6 weeks, but, the Seahawks allow the second most receptions to tight ends, allowing an average of 6.2 receptions to tight ends per game. They have allowed 3 or more catches to tight ends in 6 of their last 8 games and have allowed 7 or more catches to tight ends in 4 of their last 7 games. At plus money, I think the over 2.5 receptions might be worth a shot.

I know the “lock of the year” is Wilson over 24.5 rushing yards, and for good reason, mostly because he can get that in one play. But here are reasons to bet against that. The Packers allow the 7^th fewest rushing attempts to opposing quarterbacks. They have allowed less than 15 yards rushing to opposing quarterbacks in 13 of their 16 games. They have held their opposing quarterback to 5 yards or less in 6 of their last 10 games, including 1 or less yard in 4 of those games. The most rushing yards they allowed to an opposing quarterback this season was, you guessed it, Mitch Trubisky with only 29 yards. It’’s true, they haven’t really faced a true rushing quarterback this season, but is Wilson a rushing quarterback? He has run 17 times in last two games, but before that, he ran for 15 yards or less in 4 of 5 games. I think I’ll trust this Packers defense to contain him, and take my shot at plus money on the under.

Bets: Aaron Jones First TD Scorer
Marshawn Lynch First TD Scorer  
Aaron Jones Any Time Scorer
Marshawn Lynch Any Time Scorer
Aaron Rodgers Under 1.5 Passing TDs
Jimmy Graham Over 2.5 Receptions
Russell Wilson Under 24.5 Rushing Yards

Playoff Record: 2-6
All-Time Record: 21-33 (38.9%)

Minnesota Vikings @ San Francisco 49ers (SF-7, 44) 4:35 PM

You may consider the Under in this one. Both defenses rank in the top 10 and both running games rank in the top 5. Despite this, the Over is 7-2-1 in the 49er’s last 10 games and 8-4 in the Viking’s last 12 games. So instead, I will lean on the side of the Vikings. The 49ers are 0-7 ATS this season as a favorite of 6 or more points. The Vikings on the other hand are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog. With a defense that is only allowing 16.2 ppg over their last 5 and Dalvin Cook back healthy, they should be able to control the time of possession and keep this one close. Final Score Prediction: Vikings 21 49ers 24

Bet: MIN +7
Confidence: 4 Units
Result: Vikings 10 49ers 27

*Bonus Prop Bets

 Jimmy G is having a comeback season for the ages, leading his team to a number 1 seed coming back from a tough injury. However, the run game and defense has been a big part of that. This will be the second best rush offense the 49ers have faced, the first being the Ravens. Jimmy G only threw for 165 yards in that game. I think this game could be similar and I expect to see a lot of each team’s run games. Mostert has run for more than 52 yards in 5 straight games and has scored a touchdown in 6 straight games.

Bets: Jimmy Garoppolo Under 252.5 Passing Yards
Raheem Mostert Over 52.5 Rushing Yards
Raheem Mostert First TD Scorer

Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens (BAL -9.5, 47.5)

The Ravens have won their last 5 games against this years playoff teams, winning those 5 games by an average of 15 ppg. They’ve won their last 6 games at home by an average of 16.5 ppg. The Ravens are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games and have won 8 of those 10 games by 14 points or more. 6 of their last 10 games have been against teams that ended the season with a winning record. Tennessee’s offense, despite Derick Henry’s 182 yards rushing, only scored 14 points last week in New England and now they get a Ravens defense that has allowed more than 17 points just twice since Week 5. Meanwhile, Lamar and the offense has scored 30+ in 7 of their last 10 games. Baltimore will be hyped to host a playoff game. Take Lamar and enjoy the benefits. Final Score Prediction: Titans 10 Ravens 34

Bet: BAL -9.5
Confidence: 3 Units
Result:

*Bonus Prop Bets

The Ravens average 37.2 rushes per game, the best in the league by over 6 carries (the next closest is San Francisco with 31.1 rushes per game). This means Lamar does not have to pass it much. In fact he’s had more than 25 attempts just once since Week 6 which came in his final regular season game in Cleveland. He’s averaged just 180 yards passing over those 9 games. Since week 4, his most passing yards in a game is 238, also in week 16 in Cleveland. I just don’t think this is a game he will need to pass for many yards so I’ll take the Under.

What he is able to do through the air is torch defenses in the redzone.  He has thrown for 3 or more touchdowns in 6 of his last 7 games. Unfortunately, we can only bet Over 1.5 passing touchdowns at -167 odds, but I think it’s worth it.

Let’s keep the MVP bets going and bet the Over 77.5 on his rushing yards. He’s rushed for 79 yards or more in 5 of his last 6 games and 7 of his last 10 games. I think the playoffs bring out something special here and we see him display his greatness.

As for a first TD, I’ll have a few bets on this one. Since we like Baltimore to win big, it makes sense to pick a Raven. Ingram leads the team with 12 redzone TDs, followed by Andrews with 9. Both players come banged up in this one. The next closest is Marquise Brown and Lamar Jackson with 4 each. There are 3 other guys that have multiple redzone touchdowns (Snead, Boykins, Boyle). Keep an eye on Gus Edwards who only has 1 redzone touchdown, but 23 redzone carries, second only to Ingram’s 27. The Titans allowed 9 touchdowns to tight ends this season, third most in the league. They allow the 10^th most touchdowns to running backs and allow the 21^st most touchdowns to wide receivers. They are only 1 of 9 teams to allow 1 or 0 rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. My order in which I like the first TD scorer: Andrews, Ingram, Jackson, Brown, Edwards, Hurst, Boyle

Bets: Lamar Jackson Under 220.5 Passing Yards
Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 Passing TDs
Lamar Jackson Over 77.5 Rushing Yards
Lamar Jackson to Score & Ravens to Win
Mark Andrews First TD Scorer

Playoff Record: 2-4
All-Time Record: 21-31 (40.4%)

Portland Trailblazers @ Toronto Raptors (TOR -2.5, 220)

The Trailblazers are 1-12 SU and only 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with winning records. They are 1-6 SU and ATS in their last 7 games overall. They are 1-8 ATS as an underdog. Oh and get this. The Raptors are 19-0 SU and 15-4 ATS against teams with losing records. They are 8-4 SU and ATS in their last 12 overall. They are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite. Too many trends to ignore.

Bet: TOR -2.5
Confidence: 4 Units
Result: Trailblazers 101 Raptors 99

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Brooklyn Nets (OKC -2.5, 216)

The Thunder came up short in Philadelphia last night, but still managed to squeak out a cover. They had won 9 of their previous 10 before the loss. Although they are coming off a back-to-back, they are 5-0 ATS with no rest. They are one of the best covers for any team this season, going 24-12 ATS and are 12-4 ATS as a road favorite. The Nets are 0-6 SU and ATS in their last 6 games, losing by an average margin of 12 points per loss. They are 5-0 ATS as a home underdog, but just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog overall.

Bet: OKC -2.5
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Thunder 111 Nets 103

Today’s Record: 1-1
All-Time Record: 44-42 (51.2%)

Indiana Pacers @ Charlotte Hornets (IND -5, 208.5) 7:10 PM

The Pacers have lost 5 of their last 7 games, including 4 in a row on the road. Meanwhile, the Hornets have won two straight, both on the road, after snapping their 6 game losing streak. Interesting note: the Hornets have won consecutive road games just twice this year and the following game in both instances were against the Pacers, a 122-120 home win on November 5^th and 85-107 road loss on December 15^th. The Over is 5-1 in the Pacer’s last 6 games, with the one Under missing by half a point and hitting Over the total by an average margin of 15.6 ppg. They are scoring an average of 112 ppg and allowing 114.2 ppg in those 6 games. Although the Hornets only score 104.4 ppg which ranks 3^rd worst in the league, they did just score 123 points in Dallas on Saturday. Maybe we’ll be better at these in 2020.

Bet: Over 208.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Pacers 115 Hornets 104

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Philadelphia 76ers (PHI -7.5, 212.5) 7:10 PM

The 76ers impressed by beating the Bucks on Christmas Day. Since, they are 0-4 both SU and ATS. In fact, they have lost 7 of their last 10 games and are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games. Meanwhile, the Thunder have won 9 of their last 10 games and are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games, covering in each of their last 5 games. They have also covered in 7 of their last 8 games as a road underdog. The Sixers are 16-2 SU at home this season but are just 2-4 ATS in their last 6 home games. I’ll take the hotter team, even if they are on the road.

Bet: OKC +7.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Thunder 113 76ers 120

Milwaukee Bucks @ San Antonio Spurs (MIL -7, 228) 8:40 PM

These two teams played on Saturday in Milwaukee, a 127-118 win for the Bucks. In the rematch, the Bucks come in as a 7 point favorite. As a favorite by single digits, the Bucks have covered in 9 of their last 10 games. They are also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Spurs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games. I’ll take the Bucks at this price.

Bet: MIL -7
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Bucks 104 Spurs 126

Today’s Record: 2-1
All-Time Record: 43-41 (51.2%)

West Virginia @ Oklahoma State (WV -1, 138) 9 PM

The Mountaineers are coming off two tough games against Ohio State and Kansas, beating the Buckeyes by 8 and losing to in Kansas by 7, covering in both games. They have covered in 4 of their last 5 games. The Cowboys last 3 games include a 20 point loss to Minnesota followed by a 51 point win vs SE Louisiana followed by a 35 point thumping at Texas Tech. They are just 2-5 ATS at home this season. They shot only 28.8% from the field at Texas Tech and now face the Mountaineers who rank 4^th in opposing team shooting percentage and 2^nd in opposing team 3 point percentage. The Mountaineers should control the glass, ranking 3^rd in offensive rebounding and 55^th in defensive rebounding compared to the Cowboys who rank 231^st in offensive rebounding and 220^th in defensive rebounding. Cowboys in January?

Bet: WV -1
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: West Virginia 55 Oklahoma State 41

Today’s Record: 1-0
All-Time Record: 29-19 (60.4%)

LA Lafayette vs Miami (OH) (LA-L -14, 55) 7:30 PM

The Redhawks won the MAC Championship with one of the best defenses, allowing only 22.3 ppg in conference play. They allowed 21 points or less in 5 of their last 6 games. Yet, 5 of their last 6 games have all been decided by 7 points or less. In their 5 losses, their average margin of defeat is 30.6 points per loss, which includes a 71 point loss to Ohio State. Their other 4 losses are by 14, 22, 22 and 24. This tells me they can beat weak teams, but struggle against tougher competition. As a double digit underdog, they are 1-3 ATS with their only cover being a 24 point loss as a 25 point underdog in their first game of the year at Iowa. The Ragin’ Cajuns opened their season covering a 19 point spread against Mississippi State losing 38-28. Since, they are 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS, with their only two SU losses coming against Appalachian State. Their average margin of victory in their 10 wins is 27.2 ppg. They covered 8 of their first 9 games, but are just 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games.

The Ragin’ Cajuns have a triple threat backfield, with Raymond Calais, Trey Ragas and Elijah Mitchell who all have over 100 carries. As a team they average 6.1 yards per rush, the best in the country. That will be a problem for the Redhawks, as they allowed the 81^st most rush yards per game. If the Redhawks fall behind, that could smell trouble as they rank 116^th in passes per game, 112^th in pass yards per game, 100^th in sack percentage, 119^th in completion percentage and 103^rd in interception percentage. True freshman quarterback Brett Gabbart has thrown 11 TD and 8 INTs on the season. The Ragin’ Cajuns pass defense ranks 19^th in the league and 7^th in redzone scoring percentage. Lafayette takes an early lead and never looks back. Final Score Prediction: LA Lafayette 38 Miami (OH) 17

Bet: LA-L -14
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: LA Lafayette 27 Miami (OH) 17

Bowls: 18-23
All-Time Record: 45-55 (45%)

Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints (NO -7.5, 49.5) 1:05 PM

Road underdogs have covered the spread in each of the last 10 Wildcard games. However, none of those teams played a 13 win team with the all time leading passer and single season receptions record holder. Kirk Cousins is 0-15 SU against teams with 12 or more wins in his career. Meanwhile, Drew Brees broke his own completion percentage record for a third year in a row. The Vikings defense allows the 6th worst opponent completion percentage this season. The Vikings are 1-4 SU and ATS against this year’s playoff teams and now get a hostile Superdome with a banged up defense and a quarterback that never seems to show up. Who Dat gonna break some Skols today. Final Score Prediction: Vikings 20 Saints 34

Bet: NO -7.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Vikings 26 Saints 20 OT

Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles (PK, 45) 4:40 PM

The Eagles defense has not allowed more than 17 points in 6 straight home games. They have allowed an average of 13.3 ppg in those games and the Under is 6-0. The Seahawks offense scored 21 points or less just twice over their first 10 games, but have done so 4 times over their last 6 games. These teams played back in Week 12, a 17-9 win for the Seahawks. The leading rusher was Rashaad Penny and the leading receiver was Zach Ertz. Penny is Out while Ertz is expected to play coming off a lacerated kidney. Yeah. I’ll take the Under. Final Score Prediction: Seahawks 17 Eagles 20

Bet: Under 44.5 
Confidence: 2 Units
Result:  Seahawks 17 Eagles 9

Playoff Record: 2-3
All-Time Record: 21-30 (41.2%)