Houston Rockets @ Toronto Raptors (TOR -1, 230) 7:30 PM
Denver Nuggets @ New York Knicks (DEN -9.5, 202.5) 7:40 PM

Clint Capela has 8 straight games with 19+ rebounds in which he has averaged 20.5 rpg. The Raptors rank last in the league in opponent rebounds per game. With his total set at 15.5, we like that to sore past the over.

To help your odds a bit, since Capela’s rebound odds are at -134, take the Nuggets moneyline to get your odds to plus money. They have lost two in a row which helps drive the odds down a bit. However, the Knicks have lost 7 in a row by an average margin of 14.4 ppg. The Nuggets are the best defensive team in league, allowing 101.9 ppg and the Knicks are the worst offensive team in the league, scoring 100.9 ppg. Expect the Knicks struggles to continue.

Bet: DEN ML/Clint Capela Over 15.5 rebounds
Confidence: 4 Units
Result:

Today’s Record: 0-1
All-Time Record: 31-31 (50%)

Virginia @ Purdue (PUR -2, 103.5) 7:15 PM

No, you aren’t reading that incorrectly. Purdue is favored and the total is dangerously close to being under 100! The Cavaliers are 350th in possessions per game while the Boilermakers are 324th in possessions per game. The Cavaliers allow 40.3 ppg which ranks 1st while the Boilermakers allow 58.4 ppg which ranks 13th. Carsen Edwards scored 42 points in the elite eight classic from last season, while no other Boiler scored more than 7. This could be rough, but I trust the Cavaliers to win a type of game like this against a Purdue team that has turned the ball over 42 times in their last 2 games.

Bet: UVA +2
Confidence: 5 Units
Result: Virginia 40 Purdue 69

Texas Tech @ DePaul (TTU -2.5, 137) 8:30 PM

Oh, hey, look, another final four team getting hosed at the spread line. Ok, fair enough, the Red Raiders looked horrible in Las Vegas, losing back to back to Iowa and Creighton. Maybe they had too much fun out there. Now they got to go Chicago and play DePaul. There’s nothing fun to do in Chicago in the winter, just ask Bears fans. The Red Raiders will be ready and will give DePaul their first loss.

Bet: TTU -2.5
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Texas Tech 60 DePaul 65 OT

San Diego State @ Colorado State (SDSU -5.5, 134) 9 PM

San Diego State is 8-0 and have been steam rolling teams lately, winning by an average margin of 19.1 ppg. Remember the two teams Texas Tech lose to in Vegas? The Aztecs beat Creighton by 31 and Iowa by 10 on that same trip. Colorado State has not seen the same competition and will be overwhelmed when the Aztecs come to town.

Bet: SDSU -5.5
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: San Diego State 79 Colorado State 57

Ohio State @ North Carolina (UNC -3.5, 138) 9:30 PM

The Buckeyes are ranked all the way up to 6th. But I think that’s a little overvalued due to their 25 point win against Villanova. They have not played a game outside of the state of Ohio and now have to travel to Tar Heel Country. The Buckeyes have played the 47th toughest schedule while North Carolina has played the 3rd toughest schedule. Coming off a big win against a tough, physical Oregon team, the Tar Heels will be ready when the Buckeyes come to town.

Bet: UNC -3.5
Confidence: 3.5 Units
Result: Ohio State 74 North Carolina 49

Today’s Record: 1-3
All-Time Record: 17-8 (68%)

Brooklyn Nets @ Atlanta Hawks (BKN -3, 229) 7:40 PM

With this total set at 229, we can assume at least one team will need to score at least 115 (at the minimum). The Nets have scored 115+ just once in their last 8 games averaging 105.3 ppg over that span. Defensively, they have allowed 115+ in 2 of their last 8 games allowing an average of 105.9 ppg over that span. The under has hit in 6 of those 8 games. The over hit in 10 straight Atlanta Hawks games over the span of a month. However, the under has hit in 3 of their last 4 games, with the average margin from the total going under by 27.5 ppg. That’s because they are struggling to score, averaging only 102.8 ppg over their last 4 games.

Bet: Under 229
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Nets 130 Hawks 118

Indiana Pacers @ Oklahoma City Thunder (IND -1, 209.5) 8:10 PM

The over has hit in 5 of the last 6 games for the Pacers by an average margin above the total of 17.2 ppg. The total has been set at 210 or less in 5 Pacer games this season, and all 5 hit the over by an average margin of 15.2 ppg. The over has hit in 4 of the last 5 Thunder home games and the over has hit in 2 of the 3 games the Thunder total has been set at 210 or lower. Take advantage of the low total.

Bet: Over 209.5
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Pacers 107 Thunder 100

Indiana Pacers @ Oklahoma City Thunder (IND -1, 209.5) 8:10 PM
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Dallas Mavericks (DAL -4.5, 230.5) 8:40 PM
Los Angeles Lakers @ Utah Jazz (UTA -2.5, 212.5) 9:10 PM

There is an odds boost for Draftkings tonight for a 3 team parlay on the Pacers, Mavericks and Lakers. Although there are reasons to be wary, I think it might be worth it. Let’s take a look.

The Thunder are just 2-10 as an underdog this season. The Thunder are 8-11 this season, but 3 of those wins are against Golden State and 3 of those wins, including in their last 2 games, are against New Orleans. They are just 2-11 against the rest of the league. The Pacers have won 10 of 13 including 6 of their last 7 and beat this Thunder team by 26 the last time they played.

The Timberwolves have actually been a road warrior this year, going 4-1 SU and ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog. However, the Mavericks don’t care. They have become a machine in the west, going 8-1 SU and ATS in their last 9 games. Although the Mavericks are playing the back half of a back to back, the Timberwolves are 0-3-1 ATS with a rest advantage while the Mavs are 2-0 with a rest disadvantage. This is only the Mavericks 2nd back-to-back this season. In the second game of the back to back the first time, the Mavericks had no problem beating the Grizzlies by 16.

Yet again we get the Lakers at plus money. This is probably because they are coming off a back to back as well. However, the Lakers are 5-0 SU with a rest disadvantage and 2-0 SU with no days off. While Utah is 8-1 SU at home this season, the Lakers have won 9 straight road games. The Jazz have lost 4 of their last 5 overall while the Lakers haven’t lost 4 games all season.

Bet: IND ML/DAL ML/LAL ML
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Pacers 107 Thunder 100
Timberwolves 114 Mavericks 121
Lakers 121 Jazz 96

Today’s Record: 1-2
All-Time Record: 31-30 (50.8%)

Butler @ Ole Miss (OLEM -1, 130) 7 PM

I think the wrong team is favored here. The Rebels have lost 2 of their last 3 games and trailed by 16 in at the half in the one game they did win. They have trailed by 16 points or more in each of those 3 games. Meanwhile the Bulldogs are 7-0 and haven’t trailed by more than 7 points in any game this season. They hold teams to 55.1 ppg which ranks 9^th while they outshoot the rebels 49.1% to 42.3 %. Look for the Bulldogs to handle business on the road.

Bet: BUT +1
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Butler 67 Ole Miss 58

Florida State @ Indiana (IU -1.5, 137) 9 PM

Both these teams come into this one on 7 game winning streaks. It’s a battle of offense vs. defense. Indiana has scored 108.1 points per 100 possessions (31st) while the Seminoles have held opponents to just 85.1 points per 100 possessions (3^rd). Sure, Florida State has played a much tougher schedule, beating then ranked 6^th Florida and then ranked 17^th Tennessee and then beating Purdue to capture the Emerald Coast Classic Championship. However, all of those games were played in the state of Florida. A trip to Assembly Hall in early December for a warm weather team, facing off against the 4^th highest scoring team in the country with the Big Ten Freshman of the Week on their side. Go Hooisers!

Bet: IU -1.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Florida State 64 Indiana 80

Duke @ Michigan State (MSU -6.5, 147) 9:30 PM

I think Vegas is anticipating the loss of Cassius Stanley to impact this team greatly and fair enough. He’s second on the team in points, rebounds, steals, blocks and 3 point percentage. They really haven’t looked impressive their last two games, obviously the big loss to Stephen F Austin and grinding through Winthrop. But I think they play up to their competition tonight and the Spartans haven’t been too impressive either. They are just 2-5 ATS and their only two covers came at 38+ point favorites. So while they can beat up on the nobodies, they struggle against legitimate competition. I’ll take the free points in what could be a toss up game.

Bet: Duke +6.5
Confidence: 4 Units
Result: Duke 87 Michigan State 75

Today’s Record: 3-0
All-Time Record: 16-5 (76.2%)

Orlando Magic @ Washington Wizards (WAS -2, 227.5) 7:10 PM

The last time these two teams played, the Magic came away with a 125-121 win in Orlando, their highest point total in any game this season. The Magic have only scored 98.3 ppg since then. Wizards games this season are usually high scoring. The Wizards are 3^rd in the league in ppg and last in opponents ppg. The over has hit in 4 of the Magic’s last 5 road games and is 4-2-1 after a Magic SU win.
I also see the Wizards winning this one. The Magic are 0-7 ATS after a straight up win and 3-10 ATS on equal days rest.

Bet: WAS -2 & Over 227.5
Confidence: 1 Unit & 2 Units
Result: Magic 127 Wizards 120

Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors (TOR -5, 212.5) 7:40 PM

The Raptors have been a covering machine in these situations this season. They are 11-0 ATS with one days rest, 9-0 ATS with equal days rest, 8-1 ATS at home and 10-2 ATS as a favorite. I think the public has yet to become believers in a team that is missing Kawhi Leonard (with the Clippers) and Kyle Lowry (injury) not playing for this team. Serge Ibaka was out since November 8^th, but returned Sunday to the lineup, only to make this team even better. While the Heat have been overachievers themselves, they are a different team at home than on the road. They are 8-0 SU and 8-0 ATS at home and 6-5 SU and 5-5-1 ATS on the road including 2-4-1 ATS as a road underdog.

Bet: TOR -5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Heat 121 Raptors 110 OT

Dallas Mavericks @ New Orleans (DAL -4, 233) 7:40 PM

The Pelicans have been strong as a home underdog this season, going 4-1 ATS in those situations. However, two of those covers came while they were in the midst of a 5 wins out of 7 stretch earlier this season. They are currently on a 5 game losing streak and the red hot Mavericks come to town. The Mavericks are 7-1 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games. They have covered the number by 19 or more points in 4 of their last 6 games. Luka Donic is on fire right now and I see that continuing tonight. Mavs big.

Bet: DAL -4
Confidence: 4 Units
Result: Mavericks 118 Pelicans 97

Dallas Mavericks @ New Orleans (DAL -4, 233) 7:40 PM
Houston Rockets @ San Antonio Spurs (HOU -6.5, 235) 8:45 PM
Los Angeles Lakers @ Denver Nuggets (DEN -2.5, 207.5) 9:10 PM
Portland Trailblazers @ Los Angeles Clippers (LAC -9.5, 231.5) 10:10 PM

For our parlay tonight, we’re going to do something a little different. This is called a 2 pick Round Robin Parlay. Essentially we will be taking every duo combination on the MLs we like. There will be 6 parlays we will be making: DAL/HOU, DAL/LAL, DAL/LAC, HOU/LAL, HOU/LAC, LAL/LAC (Don’t worry, you  select it the same as a regular parlay but switch to Round Robins and put your wager for EACH parlay in the 2 pick Round Robin slot. EX. $1 on each parlay would be a $6 bet)  If one of our 4 teams loses, we still receive a 50% win rate on our parlays. If two of our teams lose, we still get a 16.7% win rate, and so on. Consult with your betting expert for additional questions.

We feel so good about the Mavericks we’ll include them in a parlay for the night. How about pairing a Luka Donic with a James Harden? The Rockets are 10-2 following up a win and 4-0 with rest advantage. Now they get the Spurs that just lost by 34 to the Pistons while Harden is coming off a 60 point performance in 3 quarters no less. The Spurs are 1-8 this season as an underdog and I don’t see them upsetting Harden and the Rockets tonight. The Lakers and Nuggets are both coming off loses in their previous games. However, the Lakers are 2-0 off a loss and 8-1 as the road team. The only other time Lebron and the Lakers were underdogs they covered the 1 point spread by beating the Mavericks outright by 9. The Nuggets are just 2-4 ATS as favorites of 4 points or less. Finally, we’ll take the Clippers, winners of 8 of their last 9 games and 8 straight home wins to beat the Trailblazers, who have lost 7 of their last 9 road games and just 1-6 against teams with a winning record.

Bet: 2 pick Round Robin DAL ML/HOU ML/LAL ML/LAC ML
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Mavericks 118 Pelicans 97
Rockets 133 Spurs 135 OT
Lakers 105 Nuggets 96
Trailblazers 97 Clippers 117

Today’s Record: 2-2
All-Time Record: 30-28 (51.7%)

Chicago Bulls @ Sacramento Kings (SAC -5, 212) 10:10 PM

I land shortly after 9 and there is only one game I could and will place a bet on in time for the night to close out. Luckily, there is some value here. The Kings have covered in 12 of their last 13 games. Meanwhile the Bulls have failed to cover in 7 of their last 9 games and are just 3-7 ATS on the road this season. The Kings have won and covered in each of their last 5 home games. Let’s make it 6 tonight.

Bet: SAC -5
Confidence: 3 units
Result: Bulls 113 Kings 106

Today’s Record: 0-1
All-Time Record: 28-26 (51.9%)

New York Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals (NYJ -3, 42.5) 1 PM

The Jets have scored 34 points in 3 straight weeks, an NFL first. While the Bengals defense has allowed 17 and 16 points in their last 2 weeks, they still allow 26.5 ppg which ranks 27th in the league. The over/under is 4-1 in Jets road games and with Andy Dalton coming back for the Bengals, yes, there is a little boost there and I think they can score enough to get this total to an over. Final Score Prediction: Jets 27 Bengals 20

Bet: Over 42.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Jets 6 Bengals 22

Green Bay Packers @ NY Giants (GB -6.5, 43) 1 PM

The Packers have lost 2 of their last 3, two road games. But in 6 of their last 7 wins, they have won by a touchdown or more. The Packers are 7-1 in games not played on the west coast and the Giants are 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games. Aaron Rodgers has a big day, take the Pack. Final Score Prediction: Packers 34 Giants 19

Bet: GB -6.5
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Packers 31 Giants 13

New England Patriots @ Houston Texans (NE -3, 46.5) 8:20 PM

The Patriots are sick. Both medically and defensively. The Colts held the Texans high flying offense to 20 points and the Patriots offense is playing at a slow, can’t make field goals or get first downs kind of pace. I like the under tonight. Final Score Prediction: Patriots 24 Texans 17

Bet: Under 46.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Patriots 22 Texans 28

Today’s Record: 1-2
All-Time Record: 15-18 (45.5%)

Indiana @ Purdue (IU -7, 56.5) 12 PM

Before the injuries to starting quarterback Elijah Sindelar and star sophomore running back Rondale Moore, the Boilers were 1-3 ATS. However, since the new offense has taken over, the Boilers are 6-1 ATS. Vegas has severely undervalued this Purdue team and Jeff Brohm’s ability to coach. Rivalry game, at home, against a banged up Hoosiers team…ugh I’ll probably just take the under. But unfortunately, siding with Purdue is the best bet. Final Score Prediction: Indiana 27 Purdue 24

Bet: PUR +7
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Indiana 44 Purdue 41 OT

Ohio State @ Michigan (OSU -9, 52) 12 PM

The Buckeyes are 8-3 ATS but have failed to cover in their last 2 games. The Wolverines have covered 7 of their last 8 including 5 straight. In their last 4 home games, they are averaging covering the spread by a 19.5 ppg margin. If they were to do that today, that’s an outright win. I think Michigan keeps this close, but I understand if you don’t want to bet on Harbaugh against Ohio State. Final Score Prediction: Ohio State 34 Michigan 31

Bet: MICH +9
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Ohio State 56 Michigan 27

Alabama @ Auburn (ALA -3.5, 50) 3:30 PM

Bama backup Mac Jones gets the start in the Iron Bowl. He is averaging 15.2 yards per completion in the few games he has played. Look for the Tide to get enough chunk plays to help Saban go to 9-4 against Auburn in the Iron Bowl. Final Score Prediction: Alabama 36 Auburn 22

Bet: ALA -3.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Alabama 45 Auburn 48

Wisconsin @ Minnesota (WIS -3, 44.5) 3:30 PM

The Badgers have covered just once in their last 5 games while The Gophers have covered in 7 of their last 8. That tells me Vegas overvalues the Badgers and undervalues the Gophers. We have seen the Badgers struggle on the road, going only 2-2 SU and ATS while the Gophers are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last 4 home games. Here’s something that hasn’t happened this year; the Gophers as a home underdog. I’ll gladly take those points. Final Score Prediction: Wisconsin 23 Minnesota 26

Bet: MINN +3
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Wisconsin 38 Minnesota 17

Tulane @ SMU (SMU -3, 70.5) 4 PM

This is the least that SMU has been favored all season long. They have struggled down the stretch going 2-2 SU and failing to cover in 5 of their last 6. However, this spread is too low today in what should be a firework show of offense. Tulane is 3-2 ATS over their last 5 but only 1-4 SU. They are just 1-4 SU on the road this season, and now have to play a team that scores 43.5 ppg which ranks 5th in the country. Take the Mustangs. Final Score Prediction: Tulane 34 SMU 48

Bet: SMU -3
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Tulane 20 SMU 37

Texas A&M @ LSU (LSU -17, 64) 7 PM

The Aggies have easily have played the toughest schedule in the country. They have played the #8 team, Auburn and lost by 8. The #4 team, Georgia and lost by 6. They have played the #1 team, twice this season, losing to Clemson by 14 and Alabama by 19. If it weren’t for a swap of LSU and Ohio State after last weekend, this would be A7M’s third time playing the #1 team. Although they are 0-4 SU, they are 2-2 ATS in these games, and have lost by less than the 17 point spread they play today. Although Texas A&M isn’t ranked, LSU is 4-0 SU against ranked teams, but 2-2 ATS and have not won a game by more than 14 in those games. Personally I think A&M is a top 25 team and I think they should play for some respect tonight. Final Score Prediction: Texas A&M 24 LSU 33

Bet: TA&M +17
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Texas A&M 7 LSU 50

Today’s Record: 2-4
All-Time Record: 22-27 (44.9%)

Virginia Tech @ Virginia (VT -2.5, 48.5) 12 PM

Let’s keep making money on the Hokies. They have covered in 5 straight and in 6 of their last 7. They have held their last four opponents to 9.5 ppg including 2 shutouts. Meanwhile, Virginia has won four of their last five. However, they are just 1-5 ATS following a straight up win. Their best win might be North Carolina, and with the way the Hokies are playing, they could be a top 25 team by the end of the weekend. Final Score: Virginia Tech 31 Virginia 1

Bet: VT -2.5
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Virginia Tech 30 Virginia 39

Iowa @ Nebraska (IOWA -5, 45) 2:30 PM

The Hawkeyes have one of the best defenses in the country, allowing 12.2 pg which ranks 5th. Meanwhile, the offense has scored 19.4 ppg in Big Ten play, with 30 points being the max. While Nebraska’s defense is nothing to worry about, I think Iowa’s defense will hold Nebraska enough to keep this low scoring. The over/under is 1-8-1 in Iowa’s last 10 games while the over/under is 2-4 in Nebraska’s last 6 home games. Final Score Prediction: Iowa 23 Nebraska 17

Bet: Under 45
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Iowa 27 Nebraska 24

Today’s Record: 0-2
All-Time Record: 20-23 (46.5%)

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (CHI -5.5, 37) 12:30 PM

David Blough gets the start on Thanksgiving. He threw for 271 yards, 2TDs and 2 INTs in the preseason and now gets to play Khalil Mack and this Bears defense. The Bears beat Driskell a few weeks back by 7 and should do worse damage here. I can’t imagine the Lions getting too many points today and even a lack luster Bears offense should be able to score enough to cover this spread if their defense holds up. I shy away from the under because the Bears could be working with a lot of short fields off turnovers, one’s that could even go for scores. Final Score Prediction: Bears 24 Lions 9

Bet: CHI -5.5
Confidence: Thanksgiving side dish (Can’t have Thanksgiving without it)
Result: Bears 24 Lions 20

Buffalo Bills @ Dallas Cowboys (DAL -6.5, 47) 4:30 PM

The Cowboys have struggled against teams with winning records this year, going 0-4 in those games. While there is value on the Bills, the better value is on the under. The Bill ranks 3rd in the league with 15.7 ppg allowed including allowing 12.8 ppg over their last 4 games. The especially keep it low scoring on the road where the under has hit in 6 of their last 7 road games. Meanwhile the Cowboys hold opponents to 19.1 ppg which ranks 7th. Zeke should be the focus with the Bills secondary as its strength and Amari Cooper still banged up. Final Score Prediction: Bills 16 Cowboys 23

Bet: Under 47
Confidence: The entire turkey!
Result: Bills 26 Cowboys 15

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (NO -6.5, 48) 8:20 PM

I actually placed a three team parlay on CHI/DAL/NO because of Draftking’s special. But I also want to give a full game bet on the nightcap. The Saints defense struggled last week allowing 31 points to the Panthers. But since week 3, everytime the Saints defense allowed 24 points or more the previous week, they have held the next opponent to 17 points or less including 10 points or less in 3 of those 4 games. The Falcons offense has struggled recently especially in the redzone where they have only scored 5 touchdowns in their previous 14 trips. I think the Saints grab a lead and run to keep this low scoring. Final Score Prediction: Saints 27 Falcons 17

Bet: Under 48 (Could add Saints ML)
Confidence: Pumpkin Pie (You don’t need it, but it sure will taste good)
Result: Saints 26 Falcons 18

Today’s Record: 2-1
All-Time Record: 14-16 (46.7%)