Utah Jazz @ Indiana Pacers (IND -1.5, 209.5) 7:10 PM

I really want to take the over. The Pacers have scored 111+ on 5 of their last 6 home games while the Jazz have allowed 115.7 ppg over their last 3 games, a big downgrade from the 103.5 ppg they allow on the season. But since I’ve been so wrong on the over/unders, I’ll pivot to the spread and I like the Pacers tonight. They have won 3 in a row and the Jazz are just 1-3 SU as an underdog this season. They are just 2-4 ATS after covering in the previous game. They have covered in their last 2 games, but have not covered 3 games in a row all season.

Bet: IND -1.5
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Jazz 102 Pacers 121

Orlando Magic @ Cleveland Cavaliers (ORL -1, 206) 7:10 PM

I think people are going to shy away from the over because the Magic’s offense has regressed over the last few games, giving flashbacks of earlier in the season when the under hit in the first 7 games. They have only scored 97 ppg over their last 3 games. However, their opponents were the Raptors, Pacers and Pistons, all strong defensive teams, especially lately. You know who isn’t a strong defensive team? The Cavs allowed 119.3 ppg over their last 6 games. The Magic have allowed 100+ in 5 straight and the Cavs offense has scored 100+ in 5 straight. Take the over here.

Bet: Over 206
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Magic 116 Cavaliers 104

Brooklyn Nets @ Boston Celtics (BOS -7, 214.5) 7:10 PM

The under has hit in 6 straight for the Celtics and 5 straight for the Nets. The Celtics are scoring 100.3 ppg and allowing 98.3 ppg in those 6 games. The Nets are scoring 102.8 ppg and allowing 102 ppg in those 5 games. This one is simple, take the under

Bet: Under 214.5
Confidence: 4 Units
Result: Nets 110 Celtics 121

Atlanta Hawks @ Milwaukee Bucks (MIL -14.5, 239.5) 8:10 PM

The Hawks suck. Like really suck. They have lost 10 of their last 11 and 8 of those 10 losses are by double digits. Now they travel to Milwaukee to play the highest scoring offense in the league. They have allowed at least 119 points in 10 straight games and are allowing an average of 127.3 ppg over that span. Averaging. That includes allowing 135 to Milwaukee the last time they played. The Hawks should be able to keep up as the Bucks have allowed 116 ppg over their last 4 games including 127 to the Hawks the last time these two played. Expect lots of points, take the over.

Bet: Over 239.5
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Hawks 102 Bucks 111

Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs (SA -2.5, 229) 8:40 PM

The Timberwolves are a different team on the road than they are at home. But interestingly enough, they are actually better away from Minneapolis. They are just 3-6 SU and 2-6-1 ATS at home and 6-2 SU and 6-2 ATS on the road. They are coming off a 12 point road win in Atlanta and have only played consecutive road games twice this season and won both games by 22. They have won their last 3 game outright as a road favorite. Now they play the Spurs who are just 6-12 SU and 4-14 ATS this season. They are just 1-6 ATS as a home favorite.

Bet: MIN +2.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Timberwolves 113 Spurs 101

Today’s Record: 3-2
All-Time Record: 28-25 (52.8%)

Auburn Tigers vs Richmond Spiders (AUB -9.5, 142) 7:30 PM

The Tigers are a final four caliber team. Mark that down. They have won 18 of their last 19 overall dating back to last season. They are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games. They demolished New Mexico in their last game, and will overwhelm the Spiders tonight. Over the past two seasons, the Tigers rank 8th in offensive efficiency while the Spiders rank 290th in defensive efficiency. The do so by shooting the 5th most three pointers in the country. The defense will smother too, as the Tigers rank 13th in blocks and 10th in steals. Auburn’s dominance will continue.

Bet: AUB -9.5
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Auburn 79 Richmond 65

Kansas Jayhawks vs BYU Cougars (KAN -11, 146) 10:30 PM

Neither of these teams are fast paced offenses. The Jayhawks rank 98th in possessions per game while the Cougars rank 157th. Meanwhile, offenses are struggling against these defenses, as the Jayhawks are holding teams to 62.5 ppg while the Cougars allow 67.2 ppg. Both teams do very well defending the 3 point line with the Jayhawks ranked 45th in 3 point % against while the Cougars ranks 44th. The 11 points scare me because it will be slowly paced, though I like Kansas in this game, so I think the under is the better play here.

Bet: Under 146
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Kansas 71 BYU 56

Today’s Record: 2-0
All-Time Record: 13-5 (72.2%)

Western Michigan @ Northern Illinois (WMU -10.5, 51) 7 PM

Last week these two teams saw very different results. Northern Illinois was crushed at home by Eastern Michigan 45-17 while Western Michigan survived in overtime at Ohio. You would think by these results that Western Michigan is the way to go. However, we have some weird trends in this game. Northern Illinois is 4-0 ATS following a loss ATS while Western Michigan is 0-5 ATS following a win ATS. Look for the Huskies to bounce back. I’ll take the free points at home. Final Score Prediction: Western Michigan 31 Northern Illinois 24

Bet: NIU +10.5
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Western Michigan 14 Northern Illinois 17

Today’s Record: 1-0
All-Time Record: 20-21 (48.8%)

Washington Wizards @ Denver Nuggets (DEN -10.5, 226.5) 9:10 PM

The Wizards have covered in 4 of their last 5 games. They are also 5-2 ATS on the road and 7-2 ATS as an underdog. The Nuggets are 4-5 ATS at home and are just 1-2 ATS as a double digit favorite. They have won by double digits just once at home, though that was in their last game on Sunday vs Phoenix. The Wizards are 5-9 SU this season, but only 3 of those loses came by double digit, and none in their last 7 games. Wizards keep this one close.

Bet: WAS +10.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Wizards 104 Nuggets 117

Today’s Record: 0-1
All-Time Record: 25-23 (52.1%)

Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Rams (BAL -3.5, 47.5) 8:15 PM

You think I want to be here after that Sunday? Trust the process and let’s jump right back in. These two defenses have been really great lately. The Rams have allowed 12.8 ppg over their last 5 while the Ravens have allowed 14.6 ppg over their last 5. While the Ravens are scoring a league best 34.1 ppg, they have done so against some of the worst defenses in the league. 4 of their 10 games have been against bottom 6 defenses and 8 of their 10 games have been against bottom half of the league defenses. They scored 37 vs. New England (1st) and 26 in overtime at Pittsburgh (7th). The Rams rank 12th, but 12.8 ppg over their last 5 would rank 2nd on the entire season. I think this game is going to be a lot more like that Steelers game, and I don’t trust Goff to score enough points to help get this to the over. Final Score Prediction: Ravens 24 Rams 19

Bet: Under 47.5
Confidence: lol
Result:

Bonus Prop Bet:

Lamar Jackson has scored 5 rushing touchdowns in his last 5 games, and at least 1 in 4 of his last 5 games, compared to Mark Ingram who has scored 4 total touchdowns in his last 5 games. So Ingram’s odds at +150 to score and the Ravens to win aren’t nearly as good at Jackson to score and the Ravens to win at +250. Plus, I kind of want some action on the future MVP in tonight’s game because I think it will be fun.

Bet: L. Jackson to score TD and the Ravens to win
Confidence: *shrug emoji*
Result: Ravens 45 Rams 6

Today’s Record: 0-1
All-Time Record: 12-15 (44.4%)

Virginia Tech @ Michigan State (MSU -13.5, 135) 5 PM

Monday Maui Madness! I’m going to side with the experience Spartans in this game. Izzo and the Spartans have covered in 28 of their last 40 games. The Hokies beat Clemson to kick off their season by 7, but really haven’t played anyone since. The Spartans have played Kentucky and Seton Hall to this point, two top 15 teams in the country and will be much more battle tested going in to this one.

Bet: MSU -13.5
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Virginia Tech 71 Michigan State 66

Louisiana Tech @ Indiana (IU -10.5, 143) 8:30 PM

No doubt about it, this is the best team the Hoosiers have played to this point in the season, although that’s not saying much. IU put up a season low 79 points in their last win against Princeton. Louisiana Tech has held opponents to 57.4 ppg this season which ranks 28th in the country. However, they have not played a team that is scoring 90.6 ppg this season which ranks 4th in the country. LA Tech only shoots 29% from 3 point range which is what is needed if they have any chance of keeping up with the Hoosiers. I don’t see them hanging around very long.

Bet: IU -10.5
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Louisiana Tech 75 Indiana 88

BYU vs UCLA (UCLA -1.5, 138.5) 11:30 PM

I don’t recommend staying up for this one, but since it’s part of Maui, we’ll place a wager on it. Both of these teams got excited for their trip to Maui and stumbled in their last games. BYU lost by 4 to Boise State and UCLA lost by 10 to Hofstra. Did you know Mick Cronin is the coach of the Bruins now? I’m guessing losing to Hofstra didn’t go over too well. BYU’s last 4 games have been decided by 5 points or less and I think we can expect another close one here, but I’m not betting against an angry Mick Cronin.

Bet: UCLA -1
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: BYU 78 UCLA 63

Today’s Record: 1-2
All-Time Record: 11-5 (68.8%)

Memphis Grizzlies @ Indiana Pacers (IND -9.5, 216.5) 7:10 PM
Charlotte Hornets @ Miami Heat (MIA -11.5, 213) 7:40 PM
Los Angeles Lakers @ San Antonio Spurs (LAL -4.5, 223) 8:40 PM

How about a three team parlay to kick off our Monday? The Pacers host the Grizzlies and are 6-1 at home this season as a favorite and shouldn’t have trouble with the Grizzles who have lost 3 straight. The Heat are one of four teams to not lose at home, going 6-0 to this point in the season. The Hornets are just 2-6 as a road underdog. Finally, I just can’t see LeBron losing to the Spurs who just snapped their 7 game losing streak by beating the Knicks. The Lakers are 6-1 on the road this season. Although the Spurs are 4-4 at home, they are just 1-7 ATS.

Bet: IND ML/MIA ML/LAL ML
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Grizzlies 114 Pacers 126
Hornets 100 Heat 117
Lakers 114 Spurs 104

Memphis Grizzlies @ Indiana Pacers (IND -9.5, 216.5) 7:10 PM

We made good money on taking the over the last time the Pacers were on the court. However, in the 4 games prior to that, the under hit in all four with an average margin from the total of 19.5. The Pacers have held their last 7 opponents to 99.7 ppg and that includes matchups against the the number 1 (Milwaukee) and number 2 (Houston) ranked offenses in the league. Memphis ranks 17th in ppg and I expect the Pacers to keep their offense in check at home.

Bet: Under 216.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Grizzlies 114 Pacers 126

Charlotte Hornets @ Miami Heat (MIA -11.5, 213) 7:40 PM

The Heat have been the best team to bet on at home this season. They have covered in all 6 games at home. They have also covered all 8 games they have been favored. That’s good, because now they are home and favored. Sure, they are coming off a 27 point loss to the 76ers, but the games after their previous 3 losses, the Heat are 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS with an average margin of victory of 13.3. Now they get the Hornets, who have lost their last 4 straight up, including a heart breaker to the Bulls at the buzzer. They had failed to cover in the previous 3 games, but covered the 2 point spread against the Bulls. Hey, at least they have that.

Bet: MIA -11.5
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Hornets 100 Heat 117

Today’s Record: 2-1
All-Time Record: 25-22 (53.2%)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons (ATL -3.5, 52) 1 PM

The Bucs are 2-8 ATS this season and have failed to cover in 6 straight games. The Falcons have looked like a completely different team since their bye week, switching some coaching roles and beginning to look like what we all thought they were capable of. They have covered 3 straight and should make it four in a row against this terrible Bucs team. Final Score Prediction: Buccaneers 24 Falcons 31

Bet: ATL -3.5
Confidence: 4 Units
Result: Buccaneers 35 Falcons 22

I am not going to parlay this with my previous bet because the Falcons have allowed 12 points over their last 2 games and could shut down the Bucs like they did the Saints and the Panthers. However, there is some value on the over in this game. The Bucs allow a league worst 31.3 ppg while the Falcons, though improved, still allow 26.2 ppg which ranks 26^th. The over has hit in 8 straight Bucs games.

Bet: Over 52
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Buccaneers 35 Falcons 22

Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills (BUF -4, 37) 1 PM

The Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games including covering 3 straight. They have held opponents to 17.3 ppg over that span which would rank 4^th over the entire season. The Bills are 2-3 ATS at home, covering by 1 to New England and covering the 10.5 spread by beating Washington by 15. They failed to cover at home against Cincinnati, Miami and Philadelphia. That’s not too impressive. In what should be a low scoring game, I’ll gladly take the free points. Final Score Prediction: Broncos 20 Bills 17

Bet: DEN +4
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Broncos 3 Bills 20

Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints (NO -10, 46) 1 PM

The Panthers have lost 3 of their last 4 games, scoring 15.5 ppg during that span. Kyle Allen has come back to earth, throwing 9 interceptions over that same span. They are 1-3 ATS and 1-3 SU. The Saints are now 8-2 SU this season and have covered in 7 of their last 8 games. Give me the Saints. Final Score Prediction: Panthers 17 Saints 31

Bet: NO -10
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Panthers 31 Saints 34

Oakland Raiders @ New York Jets (OAK -3, 46.5) 1 PM

These are two of the worst secondaries in the league. The Raiders allow 264.1 passing yards per game which ranks 28^th while the Jets allow 253.3 passing yards per game which ranks 21^st. The Raiders come in on a 3 game winning streak. They had scored 24 or more points in 7 straight games until last week against the Bengals. They won’t do that again against these Jets who are on their own 2 game winning streak. The Jets have allowed at least 22 points in every game this season except their first game against the Bills (17) and in last weekend’s game against the Redskins (17). Meanwhile, the offense has improved recently, scoring 25.3 ppg since being shutout to New England. All in all, I think these offenses are in for a good day. Final Score Prediction: Raiders 27 Jets 24

Bet: Over 46.5
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Raiders 3 Jets 34

Dallas Cowboys @ New England Patriots (NE -5.5, 44.5) 4:25 PM

 Death, taxes and the Patriots covering at home. Since the start of last season, the Pats are 10-3 ATS at home and 7-1 ATS against the NFC. Add in the fact Tom Brady is an angry, angry man these days, I’ll side with the Pats and feel pretty good about it. Final Score Prediction: Cowboys 16 Patriots 26

Bet: NE -5.5
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Cowboys 9 Patriots 13

Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers (SF -3, 47.5) 8:20 PM

The Packers have covered in 3 of their last 4 games and in both games as underdogs this season; at Chicago and at Dallas. Aaron Rodgers is 8-4-1 after the bye in his career and is 25-22-1 ATS as an away underdog. I’ll take the better quarterback in what should be a good game. Final Score Prediction: Packers 26 49ers 23

Bet: GB +3
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Packers 8 49ers 37

Today’s Record: 1-6
All-Time Record: 12-14 (46.2%)

Below is my complete set of picks for every game on Sunday.

TB 24 ATL 31 — ATL, Over
DEN 20 BUF 17 – DEN, Under
NYG 13 CHI 21 – CHI, Under
PIT 20 CIN 10 – PIT, Under
MIA 16 CLE 23 – MIA, Under
CAR 17 NO 31 – NO, Over
OAK 27 NYJ 24 – NYJ, Over
SEA 20 PHI 26 – PHI, Under
DET 24 WASH 16 – DET, Push
JAC 20 TEN 23 – JAC, Over
DAL 16 NE 26 – NE, Under
GB 26 SF 23 – GB, Over

Orlando Magic @ Indiana Pacers (IND -6.5, 202) 7:10 PM

6 of the last 7 Magic games have gone over while the under has cashed in 4 straight games for the Pacers. The Magic just broke a streak of 7 straight 100+ point games by only putting up 97 on Wednesday in Toronto. This is a team that managed to score 60 points in the first half against the Pacers the last time these two played. The Pacers have score at least 102 points in 9 of their last 10.

Bet: Over 202
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Magic 106 Pacers 111

Toronto Raptors @ Atlanta Hawks (TOR -7.5, 223.5) 7:40 PM

The Raptors have one of the best defenses in the league, allowing 105.4 ppg which ranks 8^th. The Hawks have scored 103 or less in 3 of their last 4 and now get the Raptors who have allowed 106 or less 5 of their last 7 while giving up 102.1 ppg during that span. The Raptors offense, now without Lowry and Ibaka, have not scored more than 114 during that same span.

Bet: Under 223.5
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Raptors 119 Hawks 116

Today’s Record: 1-1
All-Time Record: 23-21 (52.3%)

Minnesota @ Northwestern (MIN -13.5, 39.5) 12 PM

The Wildcats have exploded for 67 points over their last 2 games. They had scored 78 in their previous 8 games. However, in those two games they scored 22 against Purdue, who averages allowing 27.8 ppg (62^nd) and 45 against UMass, who averages allowing 53.1 ppg (130^th). As good as Minnesota’s offense has been this season, scoring 36.6 ppg (15^th), their defense has been just as strong, allowing only 20.9 ppg (22^nd). Gopher’s quarterback is in concussion protocol and will be a game time decision. I don’t think it will matter either way. It’ll be cold in Chicago, and so will the Wildcats offense. Final Score Prediction: Minnesota 34 Northwestern 10

Bet: MIN -13.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Minnesota 38 Northwestern 22

Illinois @ Iowa (IOWA -15, 46.5) 12 PM

The Illini became bowl eligible for the first time since 2014 with their comeback win in East Lansing last Saturday. They are currently on a four game winning streak in which they are scoring 30.8 ppg and allowing 18.3 ppg. The Hawkeyes have won 3 of their last 4 games including last Saturday’s win against #8 Minnesota. The Hawkeyes offense has improved recently, but are still only scoring 22.8 ppg over their last 4 games and no more than 26 points which was against the 62^nd ranked team in scoring defense (Purdue). The 18.3 ppg that the Illini have allowed over the past 4 weeks would rank 13^th over the entire season and I think their defense will be able to keep this one close enough to keep it within the two touchdown spread. Final Score Prediction: Illinois 17 Iowa 23

Bet: ILL +15
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Illinois 10 Iowa 19

BYU @ UMass (BYU -39.5, 68.5) 12 PM

UMass has allowed 59.3 ppg over their last five, including allowing 63 or more in 3 of those 5 games. Last week the lost to Northwestern by 39 and this BYU team is much better than the Wildcats. They have won 4 in a row to become bowl eligible allowing those four opponents to 18.3 ppg. Roll with the big favorite. Final Score Prediction: BYU 59 UMass 10

Bet: BYU -39.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: BYU 56 UMass 24

Michigan @ Indiana (MICH -9.5, 54) 3:30 PM

As much as I would like to take IU, I think there is a better value play here. The Wolverines have scored 38 ppg over their last 5 games, including 3 42+ performances. IU has allowed 36.5 ppg over their last 5 “real” Big Ten offenses (not Rutgers or Northwestern). IU just put 27 on Penn State and I think they can keep up enough where the over is good play here. Final Score Prediction: Michigan 42 Indiana 27

Bet: Over 54
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Michigan 39 Indiana 14

Texas @ Baylor (BAY -5, 58.5) 3:30 PM

The Longhorns scored 41.8 ppg in their first 5 games of the season, but in the 5 games, they have averaged 30.4 ppg. Baylor has allowed just 20.8 ppg in regulation over their last 5 games. The under has cashed in 3 of the last 4 Baylor home games. I like Baylor to keep this Texas offense in check coming off a blown 28-3 lead to Oklahoma last weekend. Final Score Prediction: Texas 20 Baylor 27

Bet: Under 58.5
Confidence: 3 Units
Result: Texas 10 Baylor 24

SMU @ Navy (NAVY -3.5, 66.5) 3:30 PM

The over has hit in 9 of SMU’s 10 games this season, most in college football. That’s because they go for 522.2 yards per game which ranks 6^th and they score 45.1 ppg which ranks 4^th. They have scored 40+ in 8 of their last 9. The over has hit in 6 of Navy’s last 7 games and in a big way, averaging 12.5 more points than the total in those games. Anything under 70 is laughable for the total so I’ll gladly take the over. Final Score Prediction: SMU 41 Navy 44

Bet: Over 66.5
Confidence: 5 Units
Result: SMU 28 Navy 35

Texas A&M @ Georgia (UGA -13, 43.5) 3:30 PM

This is my upset of the week. The Bulldogs have only scored more than 27 points once in their last 7 games. They rely heavily on shutting down the opposing offense who only score 10.5 ppg against this Bulldogs defense. A&M’s offense might be the best that Georgia has seen all season. They have scored 35.2 ppg over their last 5 games. Their only 3 losses on the season came at Clemson, vs Auburn and vs Alabama. I’ll take the Aggies and the points, but I even like them outright. Final Score Prediction: Texas A&M 24 Georgia 17

Bet: TA&M +13
Confidence: 4 Units
Result: Texas A&M 13 Georgia 19

Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech (VT -3.5, 44.5) 3:30 PM

Tech has made us bettors some good money lately. They have covered 5 of their last 6 including 4 straight. They are averaging covering the spread by 21 points in those 5 games and they have won 6 of their last 8 SU. Pittsburgh has covered 4 of their last 5 and are 4-0 ATS on the road. I don’t love this one, but since Tech has been so good to us and this being Bud Foster’s last home game for the Hokies, I’ll go back and go with the Hokies to cover. Final Score Prediction: Pittsburgh 17 Virginia Tech 24

Bet: VT -3.5
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: Pittsburgh 0 Virginia Tech 28

Memphis @ South Florida (MEM -14.5, 60) 4 PM

The over has hit in each of the last 7 games for the Tigers. They have score 43.3 ppg over that span. South Florida allows 27.6 ppg which ranks 59^th and allowed SMU, a similar offense to Memphis, to put up 48 points. While South Florida’s offense scores only 19.8 ppg which ranks 111^th, Memphis has allowed 38.7 ppg over their last 3 games. I’ll gladly take the over. Final Score Prediction: Memphis 43 USF 28

Bet: Over 60
Confidence: 4 Units
Result: Memphis 49 USF 10

Oregon @ Arizona State (ORE -13.5, 54) 7:30 PM

The Ducks have scored 41.6 ppg over their last 5 games while the Sun Devils have allowed 32.6 ppg over their last 5 games. The Sun Devils have scored at least 24 points in 6 of their last 7 games while the Ducks have allowed at least 24 points in 3 of their last 4 games. Final Score Prediction: Oregon 38 Arizona State 21

Bet: Over 54
Confidence: 1 Unit
Result: Oregon 28 Arizona State 31

TCU @ Oklahoma (OKLA -17.5, 65) 8 PM

The Sooners have scored at least 41 points in 8 of their 10 games this season and rank 6^th with 44.4 ppg. The Horned Frogs have already face 3 top 20 offenses this season. They allowed 41 to SMU (4^th), 49 to Iowa State (19^th) and 27 to Texas (16^th). The Sooners have allowed 40 ppg over their last 3 games while TCU has scored at least 23 points in 9 of their 10 games. The over is also 4-0-1 when the Sooners play at home. Final Score Prediction: TCU 31 Oklahoma 41

Bet: Over 65
Confidence: 2 Units
Result: TCU 24 Oklahoma 28

Today’s Record: 6-5
All-Time Record: 19-21 (47.5%)